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FORECAST DISCUSSION: "The Storm They Couldn't Punt" 2/7-2/9


HM

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Doug in NYC said he estimated 75% was snow, but he wasn't completely sure.

 

i think his estimate on the % frozen was a complete shot in the dark.... and his QPF was only slightly more informed.  i'm not knocking doug by any means...... he was just answering the question on the fly.

 

i have yet to see a single euro QPF for any single spot in NJ, let alone philly.

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Here my guestimates:

 

MPO - ~0.80" frozen (all frozen)

ABE - ~0.85" frozen (all frozen, I think this was about the same as last night, maybe a little more)

RDG - ~0.42" frozen (as you can guess, big gradient between ABE and RDG, because RDG is a bit warmer and QPF is less)

TTN - ~0.70" frozen (less than last night)

PHL - ~0.50" frozen (maybe this is about the same as last night too, maybe also a little more)

ILG - ~0.38" frozen

ACY - ~0.40" frozen

GED - ~0.12" frozen

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just so that i understand this..... are you saying .70" of the euro QPF is frozen at ttn?

 

what's your snow fall call for ttn?

 

thanks.

Yes, ~0.70" of the EC QPF is frozen (snow) at TTN.

 

I'm not changing my call on one model run, which essentially agreed with Mt. Holly's earlier snow map (that had TTN in the 2-4 band).  Models keep fluctuating.  I'll make a revision after the 12Z suite comes in (and I wake up, whatever comes second ;) )

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Yes, ~0.70" of the EC QPF is frozen (snow) at TTN.

 

I'm not changing my call on one model run, which essentially agreed with Mt. Holly's earlier snow map (that had TTN in the 2-4 band).  Models keep fluctuating.  I'll make a revision after the 12Z suite comes in (and I wake up, whatever comes second ;) )

 

okay thanks very much.

 

looking at the euro snow maps on weather underground it has about 4" for philly..... ramps up to about 12" half way up the NJ turnpike  (half way between philly an NYC)

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Euro Ensembles don't look too bad:

5ataqa2u.jpg

Still worried about about that lighter qpf shielf being shown in SE/E PA...makes me feel queesy. If that CCB gets going like the GFS shows it offshore of NJ (bc of the east trend..effer) Could be looking at subsidence issues.

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I have no idea how to post the plumes, but after a quick look this morning, I'm on board with 2-5" for the city and more to the north.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130207&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

 

ctrl+prntscr probably will do it if you have paint or photoshop to paste it into.

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