AbsoluteVorticity Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty good run for Philly folks, probably near 1" qpf in what looks like to be all snow I would be shocked if that was all snow...do you have access to euro paid maps? My guess is that only about .40" of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would be shocked if that was all snow...do you have access to euro paid maps? My guess is that only about .40" of that is snow. I am almost sure he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would be shocked if that was all snow...do you have access to euro paid maps? My guess is that only about .40" of that is snow. Doug in NYC said he estimated 75% was snow, but he wasn't completely sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just saw the HPC plots,looks more like the plots of a couple days ago...I'm not a met,but looks like the transfer is to just inside Hatteras up the coast to "just" outside the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Doug in NYC said he estimated 75% was snow, but he wasn't completely sure. i think his estimate on the % frozen was a complete shot in the dark.... and his QPF was only slightly more informed. i'm not knocking doug by any means...... he was just answering the question on the fly. i have yet to see a single euro QPF for any single spot in NJ, let alone philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure on the ECM but this is HPC QPF (just updated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure on the ECM but this is HPC QPF (just updated) holy crap. one would assume based on the time stamp the euro had significant influence on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 holy crap. one would assume based on the time stamp the euro had significant influence on that map. I am assuming so. 850s are plenty cold as well on the ECM...i do not have access to the surface temps though but from what i gathered it is a colder run then the 12 Z run was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here my guestimates: MPO - ~0.80" frozen (all frozen) ABE - ~0.85" frozen (all frozen, I think this was about the same as last night, maybe a little more) RDG - ~0.42" frozen (as you can guess, big gradient between ABE and RDG, because RDG is a bit warmer and QPF is less) TTN - ~0.70" frozen (less than last night) PHL - ~0.50" frozen (maybe this is about the same as last night too, maybe also a little more) ILG - ~0.38" frozen ACY - ~0.40" frozen GED - ~0.12" frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thank's Ray was wondering where you were,,,See any similarities to 6 Feb 78 storm,35 yrs;ago yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here my guestimates: TTN - ~0.70" frozen (less than last night) just so that i understand this..... are you saying .70" of the euro QPF is frozen at ttn? what's your snow fall call for ttn? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thank's Ray was wondering where you were,,, Occasionally I like to partake in normal forms of entertainment instead of this obsession with snow we all have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 just so that i understand this..... are you saying .70" of the euro QPF is frozen at ttn? what's your snow fall call for ttn? thanks. Yes, ~0.70" of the EC QPF is frozen (snow) at TTN. I'm not changing my call on one model run, which essentially agreed with Mt. Holly's earlier snow map (that had TTN in the 2-4 band). Models keep fluctuating. I'll make a revision after the 12Z suite comes in (and I wake up, whatever comes second ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, ~0.70" of the EC QPF is frozen (snow) at TTN. I'm not changing my call on one model run, which essentially agreed with Mt. Holly's earlier snow map (that had TTN in the 2-4 band). Models keep fluctuating. I'll make a revision after the 12Z suite comes in (and I wake up, whatever comes second ) okay thanks very much. looking at the euro snow maps on weather underground it has about 4" for philly..... ramps up to about 12" half way up the NJ turnpike (half way between philly an NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 03 SREFS ticked a bit east fwiw.../ bad trends @ the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As far as why the 0Z EC is snowier... the track is virtually identical to the 12Z but the phase is a bit faster so it bombs a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those RPM runs from yesterday morning might be the best lol we've had come through in a while. BTW, the recent RPM I looked at a few minutes ago now show Philly at around 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is a bit colder at 850 on the 6z run so far (thru 10 AM Fri)...thru 1 PM the 850 line is just north of Philly as opposed to Northern Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z is a colder solution overall...some decent snows into Philly...pretty similar to 18z yesterday. (Note SV snow maps don't quite agree but it does look like 3" would be doable in the city?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z is a colder solution overall...some decent snows into Philly...pretty similar to 18z yesterday. (Note SV snow maps don't quite agree but it does look like 3" would be doable in the city?) Looks like ~0.25" frozen at PHL... ~0.35" frozen at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro Ensembles don't look too bad: Still worried about about that lighter qpf shielf being shown in SE/E PA...makes me feel queesy. If that CCB gets going like the GFS shows it offshore of NJ (bc of the east trend..effer) Could be looking at subsidence issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z RGEM snow totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have no idea how to post the plumes, but after a quick look this morning, I'm on board with 2-5" for the city and more to the north. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130207&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here's TTN http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130207&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TTN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.07781195551154&mLON=-75.11806166992187&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z euro for abe looks like .70" frozen, .15 mix, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z euro for abe looks like .70" frozen, .15 mix, not bad http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130207&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ABE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.32116145361238&mLON=-76.75914443359375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In case it's not obvious, given the wide uncertainty in solutions, I think the SREFs are the single best forecast tool available right now to help gauge both the expected value and variance over most possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have no idea how to post the plumes, but after a quick look this morning, I'm on board with 2-5" for the city and more to the north. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130207&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap ctrl+prntscr probably will do it if you have paint or photoshop to paste it into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 abe 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ctrl+prntscr probably will do it if you have paint or photoshop to paste it into. Yeah, I have FastStone Capture, but that seems like a giant PITA when I normally just imgur stuff and hotlink it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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