HM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 As promised, if the data today moved in any direction for possible wintry effects in our area, I would make a thread.Let's sum up the points quickly and get discussing...1. The NAO has come around from last week due to the current clipper and PV revolving. This leads to a decent, though temporary, 50-50 low and trailing confluence.2. MJO-induced subtropical high fueling southern stream waves3. Excellent upper level jet structure for rapid deepening / lift4. Modeling of s/w interaction is some of the poorest our NWP can do. The exact evolution of the 2 waves partially phasing will not be modeled correctly but reasonably.5. Will our immediate area benefit from CAD and a developing CCB?Let the NWP roll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam took big steps from its 12/18z counterparts. Not quite the euro bomb, but certainly not as ugly as the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am looking at right now finally we are seeing some NNE and NE components to the wind vectors at the surface something to watch could the NAO go just negative enough temporarily. NAM certainly a step in the right direction but still lots of work to do yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The southern wave on the NAM still looks like, well the NAM. But, even with its crummy, though better than previous runs, solution, there is an excellent deformation zone from NE PA to N NJ / NY / NE. Unfortunately, we get the tombo-warned separation if the northern wave does all the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats on starting this thread... first in a while I believe... Great call on this potential from WAY out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats on starting this thread... first in a while I believe... Great call on this potential from WAY out! Thanks. Yeah between jobs, life crap etc. it has been a long while since I've made a thread. But a deal is a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its tough to not have confidence. The mean analog tombo posted, the model trends, and HM on our side are all positive. Every thing discussed on this potential since it was mentioned has come to fruition and makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 through 33, GFS looks better/ slower, consolidated with the northern stream. Southern stream is still strung out. Ridge looks more amp'd than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looking better than 18z through 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 dont recall a HM storm thread in philly forum in the past, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 his to me may be all or nothing from the nj turnpike northwest. If the low comes up the coast, phase I would think dynamical cooling would change rain to snow that would be heavy. If the low moves out to sea or east, little interaction we have rain showers perhaps mixed with snow. Also I see the euro control ensemble it was one of Tombo's hits for most of the region. NAM really isn't that far away from being a home run but it can't make contact and is a strike out run If moderate to heavy precipitation was falling on this NAM run on Friday it would have been cooler from 295 northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 at 60, its slightly deeper than 18z and a little west. Not sure if its going to show a 12z euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 surface looks warm on gfs thru 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @ 69, the northern stream is better looking, but doesnt phase, gets held up. the southern stream rides parallel to it, comes west, and doesn't phase. Pretty warm run for our SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Phase is just a touch late on the GFS. Sooner phase and we have more cold air wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 still a nice hit for NE areas, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The s/w mayhem continues. GFS slows northern s/w down and the southern s/w swings out ahead. So while the precip increases, the cold air is absent. No phase here in time for us...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 alright, im headed bed. No euro PBP from me. waking up @ 6am... YUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A period of snow does fall Friday night for north NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One more night and I book my motel in Boston I have EURO precip maps & I'll be awake...I'll put as much details as I can if tombo & others are asleep. Bit off topic but that setup at 165 hrs looks CLASSIC. Though I'd like to ave better confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 come on people wake up i here the eur0 is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WOW! I have paid euro maps. Philadelphia def. cashes in on some significant snow..How much? It's tough to say because I'm not sure when the freezing line actually passes east of Philly, but even then it's still 3-5"+, and IF all snow its 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Philly is prob all snow from 78-84 hrs and gets .25-.5, 72-78 they get same but freezing line is still NW of city, BUT 850s are blow 0...850s never get above 0 so the question is, would it be snow? Philly gets 1.50-1.75 QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It basically starts closing off farther south which is what we want...Question is, since the EURO is kind of all alone here, which set of models will cave? Or do they meet somewhere in the middle. For us in Philly it's kind of an all or nothing type deal because we need the storm to bomb farther south to get snow since we don't have enough cold air without that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So is the Euro a 5" snow for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So is the Euro a 5" snow for Philly? I'm no pro, I just have the maps. I'd lean towards 3-4" because I'm not sure when the changeover comes. Would have to see soundings and stuff. Based on looking at some stuff there is def a push of warmer air into SE PA and surrounding areas. I just don't know how much of it snow. We def would get accumulating snow though if euro was 100% right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice run though. Each Euro run continues to bring accumulating snow further south.....I call that a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's a good trend, but we really need a "thread the needle" type storm. We need it to close off farther south so that we can wrap that cold air into our region. I guess I'll hold off booking a Boston motel for one more night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How much QPF north and west of KPHL like in the Allentown area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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