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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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I think the pressure gradient depicted on the 12z euro was greater than the one in 78.

 

 

Well it WAS producing hurricane force sustained on the Cape, lol. That was as an obscene scenario as I have ever seen on the Euro...esp for this close to the event.

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I think the pressure gradient depicted on the 12z euro was greater than the one in 78.

 

I believe you are correct, based on looking at the 20th Century Reanalysis maps, the deepest that got around the same position as the 12z Euro was somewhere in the 980s hPa, and the pressure gradient on the backside definitely looks tighter with the 12z Euro.

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"But, the variations are subtle - it is just as likely that the next cycle run will have corrected back and probably will, and it probably will correct back even more. "

 

post 1379 of the other thread - this is just an oscillation along a struggle to come to a conclusion.  This system is clearly not yet resolved.  It's interesting that this run did come the closest of GFS solution yet, but is less in the QPF bull's eye. 

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I believe you are correct, based on looking at the 20th Century Reanalysis maps, the deepest that got around the same position as the 12z Euro was somewhere in the 980s hPa, and the pressure gradient on the backside definitely looks tighter with the 12z Euro.

 

 

That graphic is misleading and this event as does is significantly less than the same gradient.  1978 had a 1052mb high over southern James Bay when the cyclone deepened into the upper 970s at it's greatest depth - check that, but it's not far off.  

 

That's a static gradient of almost 80mbs!   This system is 1032mb with the high, and in deepest case scenario (Euro) it get to 973, ~ 30mb less.   Still, it's impressive, but this is no comparison.   

 

Also, just fyi - seeing as it's been mentioned. 1978 could be argued as a triple stream, full latitude phase that resulted in maximum closure, ideally, in a transitioning NAO that assisted a stall.  This doesn't have that bucket of ice on its side. 

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That graphic is misleading and this event as does is significantly less than the same gradient.  1978 had a 1052mb high over southern James Bay when the cyclone deepened into the upper 970s at it's greatest depth - check that, but it's not far off.  

 

That's a static gradient of almost 80mbs!   This system is 1032mb with the high, and in deepest case scenario (Euro) it get to 973, ~ 30mb less.   Still, it's impressive, but this is no comparison.   

 

Also, just fyi - seeing as it's been mentioned. 1978 could be argued as a triple stream, full latitude phase that resulted in maximum closure, ideally, in a transitioning NAO that assisted a stall.  This doesn't have that bucket of ice on its side. 

 

'78 peaked at 984mb near the BM. Also the Euro depiction had a 978 low or so with a 1038 in central Quebec...its pretty close when take into account the distance the high was in '78.

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