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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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Is there a good chance the models are beginning to see what the Euro has been seeing and therefore the QPF is continuing to rise due to the Southern Stream involvement?

 

The GFS phases the s/w's moreso this time. It's too early to see which model is victorious because we have 2 more days to analyze this. 

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I thought  you said 6-10 for Plymouth?  That would imply 8-12 for CON...and more with deform if we get it.  I dont' understand the deform process but read earlier that the mid level lows will likely create a deformation bank in the interior of CNE or NNE

It had like .8" for CON and .65" for Plymouth....the 4" comment was referring to the EC qpf.

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As a few other have pointed out, it appeared the 0z GFS looked slightly more impressive in the mid-levels than 12z.  The northern stream trof was slightly deeper and oriented a hair further west.  It looks ideal for most of SNE.  However, the result at the surface was very similar to 12z.  Based on the midlevels, I think the coastal low has some room to come a little further northwest.  Mixing is an issue along the south and east coasts, but if the GFS/Euro deepening is correct, everything switches to heavy snow after initial taint.

 

NCEP had a promising 0z cycle.

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I'm debating if I should stay up, lol. I have 930 class, and got like no sleep last night (oops).

 

Especially for NNE and CNE, the Euro is a big piece of guidance in forecasting up here since most guidance is zeroing in on high confidence snows in SNE.

I have a 9 and I'll be up. Banking on a day off Friday.

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