N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HPC's recently issues qpf is just awesome. 2-3 inch amounts for almost all of sne and cne and up past Concord NH. Unreal. Given banding, ccb and deformation which will increase ratios, that implies 2-3 feet of snow with higher lollies. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif just wow. there is 50 chance of precip mon nite so don't know if that bumps that up a bit but not much. because day 3 and day 4 add up to about 2.70 qpf for E MAss http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Kind of damn if you darn if you don't, But you have to leave wiggle room in both directions, I am archiving as much of this data as i can, May never see numbers like this again Maybe in 2048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's how I was in Valentines Day 2007... It was just run after run of 2-4" of QPF over BTV and northern VT. Sure enough it was correct and the ski areas saw 3-5 feet in like 36 hours, lol. This looks like that storm for you guys. Yeah, I would be happy if we held serve from 12z at 0z tonight, With this much time left, Some subtle changes in placement of these s/w's and strength will play a big part once it gets over this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blessing and a curse. Completely awesome to be forecasting these amounts, but also really stressful to be this far out on the edge. In reality I'm underdoing guidance, yet still pushing records. Almost no man's land. If I may ask, why the lower totals from CON on north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 This may be closer as it does not include what falls monday................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 just look at day 4 0z sat to 0z sun precip. 2.0+ from portsmouth,nh to bev mass to N cumberland RI and se. and then .25 N to .70 S (in sne) falls day 3. so add it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This may be closer as it does not include what falls monday................ d13_fill.gif Still, super impressive for coastal Maine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 18z gfs ens members are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This may be closer as it does not include what falls monday................ d13_fill.gif Oh well...guess we'll have to settle for lollies to 36 instead of 42. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol, With cantore showing the sref plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I may ask, why the lower totals from CON on north? Given the strength of the easterly LLJ, there will be some downsloping there. Most of the work will have to be done with the upper trough and deformation banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I may ask, why the lower totals from CON on north? Given the strength of the easterly LLJ, there will be some downsloping there. Most of the work will have to be done with the upper trough and deformation banding. Kevin is very familiar with this. That's partly why even though it rains here for a short time...I'll still beat his total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm boycotting deterministic forecasts for the duration of this storm. This is all you guys will get from me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Given the strength of the easterly LLJ, there will be some downsloping there. Most of the work will have to be done with the upper trough and deformation banding. downsloping for Webster (12m nnw of Concord) on an easterly jet? We get downsloping on N flow usually. I am at 700 ft and CON is at 350 and there are no big mountains between me and the ocean. That being said, you know 1000 times more than I do about this stuff. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Started another thread before the 0z runs come out, Want to keep the juju going for this one, Can one of the mods get this locked? Thanks http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39229-feb-8th-9th-potential-blizzard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i wonder who gets the mega death band pivot action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 downsloping for Webster (12m nnw of Concord) on an easterly jet? We get downsloping on N flow usually. I am at 700 ft and CON is at 350 and there are no big mountains between me and the ocean. That being said, you know 1000 times more than I do about this stuff. Good luck! I thought you meant farther north. That area you're talking about, more the difference between 18" and 16 or 17". Just a quirk of the color table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was aiming to get the upslope enhancement of the Monadnocks and Whites, so that leaves a slightly lower area of totals in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm boycotting deterministic forecasts for the duration of this storm. This is all you guys will get from me! Saw that on twitter - like it. Assume that's a custom made interpretation/forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Saw that on twitter - like it. Assume that's a custom made interpretation/forecast? Yeah just made a crude spreadsheet in google docs and put in what I thought. Going to keep track of them... i think it will be fun to try to do this a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, I would be happy if we held serve from 12z at 0z tonight, With this much time left, Some subtle changes in placement of these s/w's and strength will play a big part once it gets over this way This is like a GFS 266hr fantasy storm at short range. Between now and the 12z run tomorrow, I think we can really stop wondering about 'who jackpots' who mixes, etc. Until then, let's' all enjoy what should be a momentous storm for all of SNE. Oh-- And hopefullly we'll get some wicked cool deformation bands setting up in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Kevin is very familiar with this. That's partly why even though it rains here for a short time...I'll still beat his total.Better hope your buddy Noyes and his 3-6 for you is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice map http://wxedge.com/articles/20130206quincys_snowfall_forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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