Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z RPM was beyond epic here. Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Details? Screenshot? ------------------- 18z 4km NAM was obviously a little different than the 12km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Details? LOL, 30" and still going. 36 just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 20"+ for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There is zero doubt in my mind this will have a deform band in western areas. Happiness reigns on scott's words. But box disco seems to have that interior east iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z RPM was beyond epic here. Lock that baby up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm getting ready for this storm, looks like this storm will pan out 14-18 inches with up 20 in spots. Getting concerned over the wind, looks like I could be in the dark. But Who cares ITS GONNA SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Dear Lord..congrats everyone. This is Feb 78 all over wow David Tolleris https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/1st-guess-forecast-map-analysis-feb-8-9-2013/484039901643273 1ST GUESS FORECAST MAP / ANALYSIS FEB 8-9 , 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Balls deep for weeks and weeks http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 channel 5 hour by hour snowfall totals for new england. un..freakin..believable! http://www.wcvb.com/weather/-/9850416/17313882/-/48gdds/-/index.html Why do stations do that? They take the most extreme case and throw it out there in a pretty, user friendly interface for the lazy 44 oz, big gulp drinking, American Idol watching crowd. This kind of stuff gives forecasting a bad name (at leat in my opinion). With that being said, I was surprised to see how much the lower hudson valley gets dumped on in that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Balls deep for weeks and weeks http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg I LOVE this map. Is this your map, Reverend? I don't think it is, since the 30+" wasn't placed over Mt. Tolland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I LOVE this map. Is this your map, Reverend? I don't think it is, since the 30+" wasn't placed over Mt. Tolland... No..it's DT's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Balls deep for weeks and weeks http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg The Chicago Schlong scenario. Edit - I'm a bit too close for comfort with the mixing in that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Screenshot? ------------------- 18z 4km NAM was obviously a little different than the 12km version. Look at that eye ... almost like a hurricane. I wish you all the best of luck, guys. This looks like it's going to be epic up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 not sure i've ever seen 20-30 % probs for over 30 inches of snow in E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pinching myself...........BOS now 10 and its not that for fetched to have them at 30+ for the season when Sunday dawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No..it's DT's Ah yes, now I see the wx//risk.... thxs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Folks in SE areas won't like Noyes MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS: Wednesday Evening early... mnoy.esDetails such as weather setup, timing, etc., can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Half forecast / half just presenting one possible option 20130206.jpg Thanks now I don't have to draw my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Folks in SE areas won't like Noyes MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS: Wednesday Evening early... mnoy.esDetails such as weather setup, timing, etc., can be I will take his map over DT's........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm pretty amazed with the multiple sources that try and spit out upwards of 10" of snow in 6 hour periods. 15z SREF do it, CAR's snow amount algorithm does it as well. Ended up doing a lot of "no higher than" in the forecast grids today because we're still like 48 hours out. Just too early to be pulling these numbers out. Could be heavy, heavy sleep deprivation by the time Saturday afternoon rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Folks in SE areas won't like Noyes MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS: Wednesday Evening early... mnoy.esDetails such as weather setup, timing, etc., can be Did he say it's going to snow a lot there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm pretty amazed with the multiple sources that try and spit out upwards of 10" of snow in 6 hour periods. 15z SREF do it, CAR's snow amount algorithm does it as well. Ended up doing a lot of "no higher than" in the forecast grids today because we're still like 48 hours out. Just too early to be pulling these numbers out. Could be heavy, heavy sleep deprivation by the time Saturday afternoon rolls around. I don't envy you or Eckster for this, Some tough decisions you guys could have, It is quite amazing at the model consensus for this one this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those ARW members have been amped up since the birth of time. I remember the NAM in jan 2011 did the same and tried to give NYC another 12/26/10. Ease off the ARW IMO. Oh I agree... Some of the solutions are pretty ludicrous. However, even a good bit of the NMM models are juiced up as well. I said this earlier, but the SREF guidance (and most ensemble guidance in general) tends to be under-dispersive so we don't really see the true uncertainty in the variety of solutions. The ECMWF ensembles do a better job trying to capture the entire PDF of possible snowfall amounts in comparison to the GFS ensembles and SREF ensembles. Thus, even though the SREF means are in the 20-30" range for areas like Boston and even Albany... its likely there is still a decent amount of probability totals will be lower than progged. Lower than the SREF and GFS ensembles would necessarily have you believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't envy you or Eckster for this, Some tough decisions you guys could have, It is quite amazing at the model consensus for this one this far out Blessing and a curse. Completely awesome to be forecasting these amounts, but also really stressful to be this far out on the edge. In reality I'm underdoing guidance, yet still pushing records. Almost no man's land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blessing and a curse. Completely awesome to be forecasting these amounts, but also really stressful to be this far out on the edge. In reality I'm underdoing guidance, yet still pushing records. Almost no man's land. Kind of damn if you darn if you don't, But you have to leave wiggle room in both directions, I am archiving as much of this data as i can, May never see numbers like this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HPC's recently issues qpf is just awesome. 2-3 inch amounts for almost all of sne and cne and up past Concord NH. Unreal. Given banding, ccb and deformation which will increase ratios, that implies 2-3 feet of snow with higher lollies. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Kind of damn if you darn if you don't, But you have to leave wiggle room in both directions, I am archiving as much of this data as i can, May never see numbers like this again That's how I was in Valentines Day 2007... It was just run after run of 2-4" of QPF over BTV and northern VT. Sure enough it was correct and the ski areas saw 3-5 feet in like 36 hours, lol. This looks like that storm for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HPC's recently issues qpf is just awesome. 2-3 inch amounts for almost all of sne and cne and up past Concord NH. Unreal. Given banding, ccb and deformation which will increase ratios, that implies 2-3 feet of snow with higher lollies. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif This. Is. AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 HPC's recently issues qpf is just awesome. 2-3 inch amounts for almost all of sne and cne and up past Concord NH. Unreal. Given banding, ccb and deformation which will increase ratios, that implies 2-3 feet of snow with higher lollies. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif That has some of the monday's qpf in it, I posted the 3 day one earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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