Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Still a nice look. Boy though that's a close call to something that stinks. Mess up that phase by a few hours and uh oh. 

since i was busy today, just saw a comment by will that this was a later capture and further east is still on table and then this post by ryan.

 

were the euro ens W a tick of OP? edit i guess they were a nice tick W.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro had a massive deformation signal for the foothills area on the 00z run, I didn't get a chance to peek too much at the 12z because we were really into it with the collaboration and phone calls. The potential for banding is really off the charts.

 

And that snow totals map I came up with today was a bear. I mean it's hard to come up with something that doesn't look clownish, with the modeled QPF out there. That's probably a 80ish percent QPF to snow using a SREF/ECMWF blend to get the original QPF grid.

What a challenging job you guys have .... jeebus.  Somebody gets 3 feet+ but who will it be?  I assume there will be an insane deformation band way north and west...like there usually is.  And then you have to figure ratios, which will probably be better up here than down in  E MA.  2 inches of qpf could be 30 inches of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

channel 5 hour by hour snowfall totals for new england. un..freakin..believable!

 

http://www.wcvb.com/weather/-/9850416/17313882/-/48gdds/-/index.html

 

lol 

 

I love the little disclaimer at the beginning. If I had to hazard a guess, that would be the RPM. 

 

Highly doubt, we see a joint sub-forum BECS, but the potential is increasing for very significant amounts further south than previously thought. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 15Z NMMM though was way closer to the coast with SFC LOW at least, the thing that made zero sense to me on the 15Z NMMM was how the CCB did not wrap back across NJ and NYC, that was highly suspicious given the surface low placement.

 

Some of the 15z NMM runs actually do have a huge precipitation shield extending well into MA. However, some also look like the 18z NAM. Its clear that the ARW were some of the most amplified runs, emphasizing the northern stream shortwave over the southern stream shortwave and forcing the southern stream to swing northward before phasing. In fact a lot of the ARW members keep Boston from getting 40+ totals due to lots of mixing and rain in the first 1/3 of the event. At this point, there is still a large spread in totals for the coastal area of New England due to the timing of the phasing. The trend today though has been markedly west from yesterday. 

 

The NMM members and NMB members are much more in line with the 500 hPa depiction on the 18z NAM. The ARW are on the westward envelope of the guidance, but tend to be a closer match to the 500 hPa pattern depicted from the 18z GFS.

 

f60.gif

 

f63.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already told my folks to get the genny ready.

Power outages going to be a real problem. I feel. 4-8" is a safe play here. Mixing/flat out changeover and maybe some other issues if it phased a bit later.

It feels more like this storm is starting Thursday not Friday based on the excitement. Still a lot of time left in a delicate situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...