Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, saw that. Supposedly 1888 had something similar although reanalysis from that time period is a bit sketchy. 1888 had a N-S coastal front bisecting NE from NLC to mid NHampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah a late capture or NAM like solution would probably be best for you up there. But then again, some of the SREF members that go wild with a tucked in low still crush you. I think no matter what you are in a good spot. There is probably a lot more margin for error for your location than many other places. Just about every piece of guidance I've seen gives you at least 1" liquid and most are 1-2". And you are a lot colder so there might be a fluff factor depending on the snowgrowth zone lift. Sgz temps looked good, Surface temps are going to be around 12F, 15:1 should be a decent number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Say no more just say no more, ride this ENS horse which has advertised a storm for actually 10 plus days in some ways or another. Yes, The king, Is back to King on this one anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting to hear a little about how the sausage got made. Sorry if you've already been asked this, but do you think blizzard watches/warnings could be in the cards for the SW ME coast? Seems plausible to my novice eye based on QPF, wind potential and anticipated duration. It's possible, will depend on the forecaster discretion tonight. The potential is there, but they are so rare in reality that we may wait until seeing the whites of its eyes so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RI Rob....where is your dorm? West St. Right off of Tremont St. So I'm basically on the Boston Common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 how does the gfs look for the north shore of boston any changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes, The king, Is back to King on this one anyways You know what I said last week STJ systems are its baby, Si 'new moon Jack" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm envious of you guys but hope you do well. The storm sure looks like a big one for the BOX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 You know what I said last week STJ systems are its baby, Si 'new moon Jack" You called it bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 West St. Right off of Tremont St. So I'm basically on the Boston Common. Great location to see this unfold I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Steve's birthday is this weekend. Great gift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just a quick mention of my thoughts on potential jackpot areas. (ahhh jackpots) don't worry i'm not overly fixiated on this! But thought it was worth just throwing general speculation out now that were inside 48 hours. I think areas just W of the coastal front will be the best locale for jackpot areas due to the proximity to model'd QPF max's and the benefit of better ratio's (all things being equal) then areas just to the east of CF where temps maybe 31, where temps to the west of cf could be low mid 20's. i think a line from wayland ma to cumberland,Ri is my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1888 had a N-S coastal front bisecting NE from NLC to mid NHampshire Yeah, just looking at it now. 1888 was warm through the surface, GFS has an elevated (700 mb and above) theta-e max with some warmer, but still quite cold, air. Overall boundary in a similar spot, although the 1888 setup was rain to the east until the front passed back through through while this setup is still more than cold enough for snow east of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Harvey showed three of the models he uses most and considers most reliable (didn't name them) but they showed about 20 22 and 27 for bos each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Great location to see this unfold I think. Ya, I think it will. I just have no view from my dorm window so I'm going to have to make it outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, just looking at it now. 1888 was warm through the surface, GFS has an elevated (700 mb and above) theta-e max with some warmer, but still quite cold, air. Overall boundary in a similar spot, although the 1888 setup was rain to the east until the front passed back through through while this setup is still more than cold enough for snow east of the boundary. I've liked your thoughts today. Well reasoned and laid out. Can you toss out a map or forecast totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those SREF plumes are beyond lol weenie. One member is regurgitating 65" at CON and LCI. The mean is 30". lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those SREF plumes are beyond lol weenie. One member is regurgitating 65" at CON and LCI. The mean is 30". lolol That would really go a long ways toward helping my winter forecast not bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They got about 15" there in Jan '05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I've liked your thoughts today. Well reasoned and laid out. Can you toss out a map or forecast totals? Haha, thanks. I'll see if I have some time for a map later. Btw the 1888 reference was just for kicks - there's no way we get a full-day loopty-loop south of RI with this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You know what I said last week STJ systems are its baby, Si 'new moon Jack" Dude you called this one like a week out...I remember nothing on the models but you said Friday was the best potential and look what you've got haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Dude you called this one like a week out...I remember nothing on the models but you said Friday was the best potential and look what you've got haha. Remarkable prescience! Descending into Philly--soon will have to power down. Oh, I hope my flight to BDL has internet for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those SREF plumes are beyond lol weenie. One member is regurgitating 65" at CON and LCI. The mean is 30". lolol lol, I have a mean@ LEW 34.14 with one at 71.14"........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Note that Albany's map aligns well with BOX's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol, I have a mean@ LEW 34.14 with one at 70.16"........lol Unbelieveable. Lend some of that to GC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Unbelieveable. Lend some of that to GC! I am saving some of this stuff, May never see it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am saving some of this stuff, May never see it again You could double your season total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ugh I feel like such a turncoat. I'll be in Simsbury, CT for Saturday KBDL 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So Sam you think the Cape will mix for a long period of time? Why only 3-6"? Stop talking about the god damn cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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