weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some insane omega values on the bufkit soundings...18z NAM has like 25-30 units of omega into the area of best snow growth zone for a several hour period...going to get some epic hourly snowfall rates for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 QPF worries. Peeps to the NW need to remember there should be some good mid level deformation banding. Yeah and this thing is not going to have a shredded dryslot like Boxing day...unless guidance totally changes. The biggest worry is still having this storm escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From 2 of Ryan's bosses @BradNBCCT: Here's what @GarettArgianas and I are projecting for Friday's #snowstorm @NBCConnecticut http://t.co/nQLXdRXO Are you trying to start a flame war? Bosses? Is there a moderator available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 QPF worries. Peeps to the NW need to remember there should be some good mid level deformation banding. Who looks to be in the best position with regards to the mid level lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is Boston still looking at the 2 in qpf it was showing in previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just under 1" at 1v4?Close to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Close to 1" Thanks Brian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For those who care: My first call: http://www.capecodweather.net/snowfall-forecast-first-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 gimmie my QPF back! You've got 1.5"+, youre not exactly lacking in that department -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are you trying to start a flame war? Bosses? Is there a moderator available? you're his boss too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is Boston still looking at the 2 in qpf it was showing in previous runs? GFS had 1.85" for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 QPF worries. Peeps to the NW need to remember there should be some good mid level deformation banding. I'm not sure. The frontal zone could end up sloped more vertically, and the mid level deformation zone further southeast, just contributing to the epic banding over eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS had 1.85" for Boston. Ah ok, so a bit lower but still great. Wonder how the EURO is going to trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So Sam you think the Cape will mix for a long period of time? Why only 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm not sure. The frontal zone could end up sloped more vertically, and the mid level deformation zone further southeast, just contributing to the epic banding over eastern New England. The GFS has a back bent WF that destroys the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For those who care: My first call: http://www.capecodweather.net/snowfall-forecast-first-call/ Naked as a jaybird, just naked, wow from you that is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Saw that it looked way south It's not really way south. It just deepens the coastal low sooner and more aggressively than most other guidance. That would likely mean more coastal related QPF a little further NW and potentially an earlier capture. But it's just speculation. It could ultimately evolve similar to the GFS or Euro, just deeper. Really not much different than everything else, except the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ah ok, so a bit lower but still great. Wonder how the EURO is going to trend.. The Euro has had good continuity, so it probably won't change much. It's possible that the GFS is trending toward the Euro and probably went a bit too far in lowering qpf across parts of eastern New England. The 0z runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How do we know if the storm peaked on the RGEM since it runs to hr 48? When upper level divergence is no longer greater than low level convergence (pressure/mass of air above stops decreasing and potentially starts increasing, hence stagnant or rising surface pressure). Or graphically, when the upper level low is close to or stacked on top of the surface low. At 48hr on the RGEM the low has not peaked. It would intensify rapidly for several more hours until the northern stream trof catches up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's not really way south. It just deepens the coastal low sooner and more aggressively than most other guidance. That would likely mean more coastal related QPF a little further NW and potentially an earlier capture. But it's just speculation. It could ultimately evolve similar to the GFS or Euro, just deeper. Really not much different than everything else, except the NAM. Yeah, Well that would not bode as well up here if it captures and closes off further south, I would need it to make it at least to 41/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who looks to be in the best position with regards to the mid level lows? Euro had a massive deformation signal for the foothills area on the 00z run, I didn't get a chance to peek too much at the 12z because we were really into it with the collaboration and phone calls. The potential for banding is really off the charts. And that snow totals map I came up with today was a bear. I mean it's hard to come up with something that doesn't look clownish, with the modeled QPF out there. That's probably a 80ish percent QPF to snow using a SREF/ECMWF blend to get the original QPF grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if EURO goes towards the GFS, towards 0z from last night, or holds course from 12z, I'm calling for a foot IMBY. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah the jackpot fetish is starting to rear its ugly head about now. We need another couple model runs to really worry about that. This still can wiggle quite a bit and its obviously a delicate setup. Hell, we nearly lost the storm to the east on the 12z Euro before the late capture. Well, of course everyone wants to jackpot. And, there will be shifts between now and game time to be sure. But, I think it's safe to say that the biggest winners (note the word "biggest") will be somewhere from the worceater hills east. Perhaps SE of there toward Bob? QPF worries. Peeps to the NW need to remember there should be some good mid level deformation banding. Please oh please. Though Sam's comments about that being more SE than usual is a big cuation flag there. Either way--fun times in store. Meanwhile, 34k on my way to PHL. Only one flight left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is Boston in the 6-12 in for you or the 1 foot plus. Can't really tell. Oh for gods sake.llllshke yourself son! Box has us 18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GFS has a back bent WF that destroys the Berks. Yeah, saw that. Supposedly 1888 had something similar although reanalysis from that time period is a bit sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Jim Cantore @JimCantore When I get to #Boston tomorrow for storm coverage the first thing I am going to purchase is a yardstick. #snow #MAwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro had a massive deformation signal for the foothills area on the 00z run, I didn't get a chance to peek too much at the 12z because we were really into it with the collaboration and phone calls. The potential for banding is really off the charts. And that snow totals map I came up with today was a bear. I mean it's hard to come up with something that doesn't look clownish, with the modeled QPF out there. That's probably a 80ish percent QPF to snow using a SREF/ECMWF blend to get the original QPF grid. Interesting to hear a little about how the sausage got made. Sorry if you've already been asked this, but do you think blizzard watches/warnings could be in the cards for the SW ME coast? Seems plausible to my novice eye based on QPF, wind potential and anticipated duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, Well that would not bode as well up here if it captures and closes off further south, I would need it to make it at least to 41/68 Say no more just say no more, ride this ENS horse which has advertised a storm for actually 10 plus days in some ways or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, Well that would not bode as well up here if it captures and closes off further south, I would need it to make it at least to 41/68 Yeah a late capture or NAM like solution would probably be best for you up there. But then again, some of the SREF members that go wild with a tucked in low still crush you. I think no matter what you are in a good spot. There is probably a lot more margin for error for your location than many other places. Just about every piece of guidance I've seen gives you at least 1" liquid and most are 1-2". And you are a lot colder so there might be a fluff factor depending on the snowgrowth zone lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RI Rob....where is your dorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.