OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 While it is the NAM the solution of a later phase with more taint here in CT is certainly on the table. Exactly. No reason to take this run for any more than it's worth ... nor any less than it's worth. Just important to keep in mind the sensitivities involved. For any given storm, once we get a couple runs with explosive QPF, all bets are off and the discussion get diverted from synoptics to "how much". It's nice to get a run or two like this just to keep the meteorology discussion a little more alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When will you lower amounts to 3-6 statewide? Not planning on lowering anything. I have you in 12+... not sure what else you want right now. Do I think you'll see 30"? No. Do I think you'll see 24"? Highly unlikely. Do I think you'll see 18"? Possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay, but the later, further east scenario isn't entirely unreasonable. no...certainly not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Exactly. No reason to take this run for any more than it's worth ... nor any less than it's worth. Just important to keep in mind the sensitivities involved. For any given storm, once we get a couple runs with explosive QPF, all bets are off and the discussion get diverted from synoptics to "how much". It's nice to get a run or two like this just to keep the meteorology discussion a little more alive Yeah it's all about the timing of the phase/capture. It's certainly a beautiful signal with a moisture laden southern stream feature getting gobbled up at the right time. I certainly have more confidence of that occurring in time for Boston but I could totally see this turn into a bit of a whiff for here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol, 15z SREF mean here 37.96", 1 weenie member 71.26", 3 in the 50" range Can you give me a link to that? Sorry a bit of newb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For coast Hurricane Force Wind Watch: ..THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 30 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-WATERS.... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ254&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=44NM+ENE+Hyannis+MA&product1=Hurricane+Force+Wind+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 OKX's map has some spot weenie amounts towards Tolland conty of 2 feet, I think that's kinf of silly at this juncture are those maps completely computer generated or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kevin will get his boiler plate 14" while Ray and Coastalwx are nude at 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You can see the similarities between the NAM and the NMM members of the SREF guidance. This is because they share the same dynamical core (although dtk can correct me if I am wrong). At this point, this also seems to be on the less intense or delayed phasing side of the coin, which means the coastal low does not develop quite as fast or as far west. The 15Z NMMM though was way closer to the coast with SFC LOW at least, the thing that made zero sense to me on the 15Z NMMM was how the CCB did not wrap back across NJ and NYC, that was highly suspicious given the surface low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay, but the later, further east scenario isn't entirely unreasonable. of course not, but I would not jump on that train based on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not planning on lowering anything. I have you in 12+... not sure what else you want right now. Do I think you'll see 30"? No. Do I think you'll see 24"? Highly unlikely. Do I think you'll see 18"? Possibly. you said the same Jan 12 2011. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Holy..... -skisheep Nice when you can claim to be in a screw zone with 14-18 inches. Still won't be surprised to see adjustments on this. But that's the weenie speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 are those maps completely computer generated or no? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Starting to see why this is coming together this way ... that northern stream impulse doesn't have a very loud/obvious presentation in the flow, but it must be carrying along with it some pretty remarkable kinematics. Central Michigan is under warning for 6-12", as modeled and sectioned by the Mets out there, and worded for potentially more. Any kind of southern system riding N along the western Atlantic ridge and over the Gulf Stream that happens to get intermingled with that much dynamic is going to cause a bomb. ..there's just no question. Details will determine who gets impacted more or less. I am not sure if the Model Diagnostic discussion covers the 18z suite, but I'd be interested in hearing their thoughts. The NAM has clearly dumped good bit of southern stream vorticity before turning corner up the coast, and that is clearly why it's solution has varied so drastically. The N stream doing that in Michigan ... it would probably be enough to give a middling event ...perhaps border line major, on its own. The loss of this NAM run's southern input is highly dubious pending some initialization analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kevin will get his boiler plate 14" while Ray and Coastalwx are nude at 30". Hey hey don't forget PeabodyFlood! Any threat of significant coastal power outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No. Okay, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 at least toronto blizzard will be taking down the rope from the rafters. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, great looking storm for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z RGEM seems pretty similar to the 12z. At least through 36/42 it's very similar at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 OKX's map has some spot weenie amounts towards Tolland conty of 2 feet, I think that's kinf of silly at this juncture are those maps completely computer generated or no? Upton making me pay for all of those SWCT jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not suprised, Upton going with watches for entire forecast area, Mount Holly posted some as well. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ009>012-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 20 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol they're calling for 8-14" up here in the storm watches. that seems a bit aggressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WSW/Blizzard watch up for entire state of CT, NY, MA, VT, NH, and parts of ME, NJ, and PA. Been a while since we've seen something like this! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not suprised, Upton going with watches for entire forecast area, Mount Holly posted some as well. Inland: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ005>008-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can you give me a link to that? Sorry a bit of newb http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LEW&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=43.87785344215827&mLON=-69.796558984375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow! 10-20 for coastal CT...18-24 inland! wind gusts to 60MPH? Would seem that a blizzard watch would be more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WSW posted for me here in BUF. 9-18" so I think Ill stay in BUF for this event. I will be watching closely on TWC though. Hope you guys get double what I get and I think many of you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guys enjoy this storm. It has historic written all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow! 10-20 for coastal CT...18-24 inland! yeah was not expecting that high for me, thought they would go something like 6-10" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LEW&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=43.87785344215827&mLON=-69.796558984375&mTYP=roadmap Much appreciated. 10" - 70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow! 10-20 for coastal CT...18-24 inland! we keep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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