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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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For coast

Hurricane Force Wind Watch: ..THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS

POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF

30 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-WATERS....

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ254&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=44NM+ENE+Hyannis+MA&product1=Hurricane+Force+Wind+Watch

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You can see the similarities between the NAM and the NMM members of the SREF guidance. This is because they share the same dynamical core (although dtk can correct me if I am wrong). At this point, this also seems to be on the less intense or delayed phasing side of the coin, which means the coastal low does not develop quite as fast or as far west. 

The 15Z NMMM though was way closer to the coast with SFC LOW at least, the thing that made zero sense to me on the 15Z NMMM was how the CCB did not wrap back across NJ and NYC, that was highly suspicious given the surface low placement.

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Starting to see why this is coming together this way ... that northern stream impulse doesn't have a very loud/obvious presentation in the flow, but it must be carrying along with it some pretty remarkable kinematics.  Central Michigan is under warning for 6-12", as modeled and sectioned by the Mets out there, and worded for potentially more.  

 

Any kind of southern system riding N along the western Atlantic ridge and over the Gulf Stream that happens to get intermingled with that much dynamic is going to cause a bomb.  ..there's just no question.  

 

Details will determine who gets impacted more or less.

 

I am not sure if the Model Diagnostic discussion covers the 18z suite, but I'd be interested in hearing their thoughts.  The NAM has clearly dumped  good bit of southern stream vorticity before turning corner up the coast, and that is clearly why it's solution has varied so drastically.  The N stream doing that in Michigan ... it would probably be enough to give a middling event ...perhaps border line major, on its own.  The loss of this NAM run's southern input is highly dubious pending some initialization analysis.   

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Not suprised, Upton going with watches for entire forecast area, Mount Holly posted some as well.

 

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ009>012-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 20 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN  NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND  CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$
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Not suprised, Upton going with watches for entire forecast area, Mount Holly posted some as well.

 

Inland:

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ005>008-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES...ALONG  WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS  DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG  WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME  TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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For the record (to have them on one page):

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND  CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE  CORRIDOR.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD  CONDITIONS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL  INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW  WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL  FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY  NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER  HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING  AND DRIFTING SNOW.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.
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Wow!   10-20 for coastal CT...18-24 inland! 

With gusts as high as 60MPH? Give me 10 inches and blizzard like conditions any day over 20 and calm.

 

I do think there is going to be a ton of panic though during early morning Friday when its raining on the coast. The CCB is really going to have to do a lot of work for us to reach those numbers.

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