Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is really warm for CT with the low bombing to the east, wouldn't really matter-the freezing line would crash S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think thats the last of the Blizzard watches we will see You and I are in 18-24 now. And look at this from my zone: This means Blizzard Warning coming for Friday night I'd say. FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVYSNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTSUP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOWNEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is primary happy, very weak sauce ss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That Box map may have to be upped again lol. 24-36? It will absolutely have to be upped...fairly confident of that. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is primary happy, very weak sauce ss what a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is tossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those Euro ensembles don't get much better for Boston...Scooter can start dropping some of the caution flags soon. Pants tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 You and I are in 18-24 now. And look at this from my zone: This means Blizzard Warning coming for Friday night I'd say. FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVYSNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTSUP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOWNEAR 100 PERCENT. Yeah there is not much doub't we will see one hoisted right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Updated. Holy..... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I would stick to the 12z guidance if you are NAM'ing ... pending some notification from the model diagnostic room at NCEP. this run has a continuity problem with the southern stream component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NWS talking possible historic? This has managed to just get better and better as we close in. What does the wind threat look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is tossible. Massive ping-fest for Kevin, lol. That would be a suicide run for CT. Even on just a hideous looking run like that, it still spits out prolific QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is tossible. Its so late with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tossing NAM, it cant seem to find any sort of solution, from 18z last night to 0z to 6z to 12z and now 18z every solution has been different, and even if we were to keep it it's NAM vs GFS/GEFS/EURO/EUROENS/GGEM/RGEM/UKIE/SREFS/RPM: think I know what combo I want on my side -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 wow at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is amazing...we could be seeing 24-36 inch totals region wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ens for my area? people on NYC forum seem happy with them, but can't find exact amounts. Are they more like the 0z EURO in terms of temps? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats by the way Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That Box map may have to be upped again lol. 24-36? I hope so I got brews and wings on the line at Buffalo Wild Wings with a buddy that somewhere in CT sees at least 34". Go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice snow growth potential showing up on the 12Z NAM as the dendritic growth zone depth is approaching and exceeding 200 mb in some spots in that meso band. Snow will add up quickly if that's the case. Very cool image... do you know what you found these products? The SREF's haven't been much use this winter, but I've just never seen anything like that. That might be the most ridiculous set of SREF guidance I've ever seen. Its worth mentioning a lot of the ARW members are substantially further west with the surface low track, meaning a large portion of these QPF totals are in the form of rain for folks in BOS southward. Also, SREF guidance as a whole tends to be pretty under-dispersive (meaning the solutions don't reveal the entire spread of a particular atmospheric pattern). Thus, some of the less amplified guidance might be under-represented in this particular set of solutions. The mean is also likely being skewed by those higher (more westward) members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wouldn't use the 60hr NAM to wipe my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Updated. tiny little 24+ weenie zone near Peterborough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam goes to town further north, But still dishes out the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Very cool image... do you know what you found these products? That might be the most ridiculous set of SREF guidance I've ever seen. Its worth mentioning a lot of the ARW members are substantially further west with the surface low track, meaning a large portion of these QPF totals are in the form of rain for folks in BOS southward. That SREF package probably rivals the qpf max for the first KU of Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wouldn't use the 60hr NAM to wipe my ass. what a horrible model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1 foot of sleet on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Epic...and written by Kocin! THE 12Z RUNS INCREASINGLY POINT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLANDRECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THELOW FALL TO THE 970S TO LOW 980S WITHIN THE 12Z RUNS. THELIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGH ACROSS MUCHOF THE AREA AND AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 24 INCHES AREPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXEDPRECIPITATION MAY HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTSAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GREATESTAMOUNTS ARE FOUND JUST NORTHWEST FROM WHERE THE CYCLONEDECELERATES AND EVEN MAY MAKE A BIT OF A LOOP AROUND ITSELF ONSATURDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOW THE LOW THEN MAKING ASLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE PULLING NORTHEASTWARDINTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF BEHAVIOR EXHIBITED BYSOME OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...SUCH AS THE MORE RECENT BLIZZARDOF 2005/APRIL FOOLS BLIZZARD OF 1997...THAT THIS STORM MAY ALSOEXHIBIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM is late with the phase, along with a weaker southern stream ... does display how sensitive of a forecast scenario this really is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ALY just added all zones to the WSW including the two Litchfield county zones in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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