SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro weenie snow map at 10:1 lol ImageUploadedByTapatalk1360179413.223293.jpg We will do better than 10:1 ratios... I just replied to your tweet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any caution flags left (not trying to be funny...) Speaking of that, where is Forky with his big caution flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seriously though, I would think Blizzard warnings are eventually issued for most of the region if the models hold. They're hard to verify especially inland so I would guess it would look similar to the Boxing Day storm BZW configuration (SE MA, RI, SE coastal CT), and even in that storm I'm not sure what the verification rate was. If it were to happen that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any caution flags left (not trying to be funny...) Wondering that myself, what can go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1" contour goes over towards you Yowza! Eduardo likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This reminds me of that weird feeling before the Bruin's won the Cup back 2 years ago. I remember listening to 98.5, and people were phoning into the show to just garble in awe....it's like we're in surreal plain. I can't really get my head too well around a 40" event, particularly if it were uniform. It almost seems the areal coverage of ... the 12z NAM's snow output say, is similar to 1888's. Gee, should I go to the store right now, well the general masses still have less clue? You know what your area Shaws is going to be like ...circa Thursday around 6:13pm. Then you go, no way - no way is a ECM/NAM blend going to happen. IF so: the transportation infrastructure ceases - period. No non-essential road traffic would either be allowed, or possible, probably through the entire weekend and possibly into the early part of next week. People on meds should make sure their prescriptions are in check. Power outages probably not a huge concern west of I-95. Coastal plain, where wind and parachutes/cat paws intervals could make for heavy burden on trees and power lines. But out in the burbs...champagne... feet of it, but that kind of powder mixed with wind does more of fins around cars than bringing down power lines. Abstract: if 30" pack is laid down (most extreme, and less likely ...but not impossible ...eh), then it warms up with rain showers next Tues/Wed, that could a big problem for light weight construction. Snow usually doesn't kill unless the person allows themselves exposure. It's not like wind lifting roofs off buildings and homes, floods, or Earth Quakes.... You stay inside where it's warm, with a cache of movies and/or books to read, the internet, no big deal. If it is a whiteout, and it's cold, and you don in not enough and venture out on the roads or what not, and run into trouble, that's Darwin reaching out from the grave to claim another soul. It's up to you. If you are a 55 year old person with a bit of a belly, do not shovel 20 to 30" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This reminds me of that weird feeling before the Bruin's won the Cup back 2 years ago. I remember listening to 98.5, and people were phoning into the show to just garble in awe....it's like we're in surreal plain. I can't really get my head too well around a 40" event, particularly if it were uniform. It almost seems the areal coverage of ... the 12z NAM's snow output say, is similar to 1888's. Gee, should I go to the store right now, well the general masses still have less clue? You know what your area Shaws is going to be like ...circa Thursday around 6:13pm. Then you go, no way - no way is a ECM/NAM blend going to happen. IF so: the transportation infrastructure ceases - period. No non-essential road traffic would either be allowed, or possible, probably through the entire weekend and possibly into the early part of next week. People on meds should make sure their prescriptions are in check. Power outages probably not a huge concern west of I-95. Coastal plain, where wind and parachutes/cat paws intervals could make for heavy burden on trees and power lines. But out in the burbs...champagne... feet of it, but that kind of powder mixed with wind does more of fins around cars than bringing down power lines. Abstract: if 30" pack is laid down (most extreme, and less likely ...but not impossible ...eh), then it warms up with rain showers next Tues/Wed, that could a big problem for light weight construction. Snow usually doesn't kill unless the person allows themselves exposure. It's not like wind lifting roofs off buildings and homes, floods, or Earth Quakes.... You stay inside where it's warm, with a cache of movies and/or books to read, the internet, no big deal. If it is a whiteout, and it's cold, and you don in not enough and venture out on the roads or what not, and run into trouble, that's Darwin reaching out from the grave to claim another soul. It's up to you. If you are a 55 year old person with a bit of a belly, do not shovel 20 to 30" of snow. Got chills and goosebumps reading this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They're hard to verify especially inland so I would guess it would look similar to the Boxing Day storm BZW configuration (SE MA, RI, SE coastal CT), and even in that storm I'm not sure what the verification rate was. If it were to happen that is. Now that they used gusts instead of sustained it's easier but getting M1/4 from an ASOS is not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah pretty much. Just ridiculous totals. They are liking the Euro idea of really closing this thing off. I'm pretty surprised at how that has trended given the progessive pattern, but I'm certainly not complaining. I posted a chart a page or a few back, that shows why there are hints the flow isn't as progressive by Friday - has to do with modeled heights and wind speeds at middle latitudes in the deep SE and so forth. It "might" atone for some of that mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You are worse than CTBlizz. Relax.Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wtf? That's a compliment. He's worse than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its not snowing yet, but Phil stuck to his guns with this one, well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah pretty much. Just ridiculous totals. They are liking the Euro idea of really closing this thing off. I'm pretty surprised at how that has trended given the progessive pattern, but I'm certainly not complaining. Do you think (at this point) that ORH to 495/128 has the best shot to "jackpot" ? How strong will the winds be on the Cape Friday night, at least as of now... sustained 40 g 50-60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wonder if Chris M will see 40 inch jack at his place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There's no question in my mind that *as modeled* that would verify blizzard conditions for the eastern 1/3rd of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wonder if Chris M will see 40 inch jack at his place? That joke is getting old apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its not snowing yet, but Phil stuck to his guns with this one, well done. Well I just thought the flow was relaxing enough to warrant a storm nearby - certainly wasn't expecting something like this. But appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Now that they used gusts instead of sustained it's easier but getting M1/4 from an ASOS is not easy. Exactly. One of the NWS guys on here posted the verification rates for the eastern region a while back, and they weren't good. Something like 30%-ish if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro weenie snow map at 10:1 lol ImageUploadedByTapatalk1360179413.223293.jpg Wow. Nice bullseye from Boston to Cumberland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do you think (at this point) that ORH to 495/128 has the best shot to "jackpot" ? How strong will the winds be on the Cape Friday night, at least as of now... sustained 40 g 50-60? Yeah I could see even down to the I-95 belt SW of BOS and right up into BOS potentially jackpotting too...anywhere in there and out this direction is fair game. I bet Cape can gust better than 60 as long as the storm doesn't come in weaker than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any caution flags left (not trying to be funny...) I imagine that reasonably small track changes can impact type and jackpot areas. But beyond that I doubt it. Can just hope for a westward shift of heavy qpf. In ord now. One of three flights down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If someone posted the 24 hr nam/gfs/euro and said there would be a historic snowstorm in the next 2-3 days I would have laughed at them. Such a non-monster looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @MattNoyesNECN: Looking more & more like the Interstate 495 belt of interior Eastern MA will end up Fri jackpot...into Northern RI/NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This has kind of a Hurricane Sandy feel to it. Historic, expansive storm in area, with models spitting out #'s we've never seen before followed by another noreaster a week later. I can remember people saying the Oct '11 storm "couldn't" happen because it never has before. Well, there is a first for everthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any caution flags left (not trying to be funny...) I have been mobile most of the day so haven't really looked closely. However, I'm finding it difficult to thibk this shifts 100 miles east or something like that. Even an east shift may not have much of an affect. So yeah wiggles may mean 18" and not 24 or something...but I don't think it whiffs. Weenies crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Entertainment while we wait for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 StormTotalSnowFcst.png AIT...up totals throughout the day... Continue to do so tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ryan's boss @BradNBCCT: in my 30 years + as a Southern New England forecaster...I have not seen computer model solutions like this...a serious storm is possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If someone posted the 24 hr nam/gfs/euro and said there would be a historic snowstorm in the next 2-3 days I would have laughed at them. Such a non-monster looking pattern. I thought the opposite. It was easy to see that a major low should develop near the EC, the only question to me was whether it escaped east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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