ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Question for everyone, should I stay in Boston or head back down to Cumberland for the storm. I assume Boston, right? It probably won't make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Question for everyone, should I stay in Boston or head back down to Cumberland for the storm. I assume Boston, right? Jackpot will likely be somewhere between Cumberland and Boston... both are great places to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So it is still not clear which areas with which QPFs stay all snow? Is Boston half rain or something? I think that Boston stays mostly snow, maybe mix to the south rain wont be a huge problem still 12-18 inch amounts if I had to make a call at this time. You will still have to keep an eye on the latest developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 worcester would probably jackpot on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It probably won't make a huge difference. true... i just think it would be a much "cooler" event to be in being in the Boston metro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Heavy rains along the TX Gulf Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Partly cloudy and 32, remember? 24" of partly cloudy. Are blizzard conditions possible in my part of Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Cape Cod, MA would be the jackpot if it wasn't for the mixing we get. We are getting more then the 1-3" currently forecasted by WHDH and NECN, NWS has us at 8-10" and I think thats still conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think that Boston stays mostly snow, maybe mix to the south rain wont be a huge problem still 12-18 inch amounts if I had to make a call at this time. You will still have to keep an eye on the latest developments. Again -- how does 3.0" of QPF translate into 12-18 inches? Are we really talking halved snowfall accumulation rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Cape Cod, MA would be the jackpot if it wasn't for the mixing we get. We are getting more then the 1-3" currently forecasted by WHDH and NECN, NWS has us at 8-10" and I think thats still conservative. I think it would be helpful to take the imby comments like this to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 true... i just think it would be a much "cooler" event to be in being in the Boston metro.. Well, then Boston is your place I'd say. I don't see how Boston doesn't get hammered at this point. The only question is really whether its a 12-18 event or 20"+....the guidance is trending toward the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Again -- how does 3.0" of QPF translate into 12-18 inches? Are we really talking halved snowfall accumulation rates? I've already answered this, 3" QPF is just model output, it's not guaranteed. You can't forecast just on model output alone, and definitely not smart to forecast record breaking snows at this lead time. Start at 12-18" adjust higher as we close in on the event if the models maintain such high QPF and it makes sense given the evolution of the storm. We need 5h to close off just like it does on the models right now to wring out this type of QPF, if that doesn't happen (which is certainly in the realm of possibilities at this point) we'll be back down from these historic totals. You get some egg on your face if you hype 24"+ and it doesn't deliver. Relax on the forecasts, if the models hold they will adjust higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are blizzard conditions possible in my part of Connecticut? Nope, just Tolland. Seriously though, I would think Blizzard warnings are eventually issued for most of the region if the models hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It is rather hard to forecast 20"+ over 36 hours from the start of an event, 12z models tomorrow hold serve and do not delay the phase longer, then we can seriously begin to talk about amounts like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Again -- how does 3.0" of QPF translate into 12-18 inches? Are we really talking halved snowfall accumulation rates? If it were as easy as taking modeled qpf and plugging in 10:1 it would be easy. But there's a presumption that qpf may be overdone somewhat and were 60 hours out so 12-18 is a much more reasonable starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WBZ Map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF: Augusta: 1.42” Bangor: 1.10” Bedford: 2.87” Berlin: 1.24” Beverly: 2.82” Boston: 2.97” Bridgeport: 1.56” Chicopee Falls: 1.72” Concord: 1.96” Danbury: 1.41” Fitchburg: 2.51” Groton: 2.17” Hartford: 1.79” Hyannis: 2.58” Jaffrey: 2.05” Keene: 1.65” Lebanon: 1.20” Lewiston: 1.58” Manchester: 2.32” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71” Milton: 3.03” Nashua: 2.43” New Haven: 1.68” Pittsfield: 1.38” Plymouth: 2.89” Portland: 1.99” Portsmouth: 2.44” Providence: 3.04” Taunton: 3.06” Westfield: 1.70” Worcester: 2.54” Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain. Thanks. Very helpful to have samples for that many locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro weenie snow map at 10:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 15z SREFs were run from Jerry's laptop...2" mean qpf for ORH-GON eastward and >2.5" mean qpf for BVY-BOS-TAN and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 15z SREFS are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Again -- how does 3.0" of QPF translate into 12-18 inches? Are we really talking halved snowfall accumulation rates? Remember that the 3.0" QPF is just the output of the models at this point, 12 to 18 inches is just a conservative estimate at this point. If we do see the 3.0" of QPF we could see more that 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 15z SREFs were run from Jerry's laptop...2" mean qpf for ORH-GON eastward and >2.5" mean qpf for BVY-BOS-TAN and southeast. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think mixing impacts amounts for the coastline at all honestly, it will be interesting to see what the 18z NAM says and if it backs off the enormous amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Good lord. Yeah pretty much. Just ridiculous totals. They are liking the Euro idea of really closing this thing off. I'm pretty surprised at how that has trended given the progessive pattern, but I'm certainly not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think mixing impacts amounts for the coastline at all honestly, it will be interesting to see what the 18z NAM says and if it backs off the enormous amounts. You are worse than CTBlizz. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 15z SREFS are insane elaborate....in class lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think mixing impacts amounts for the coastline at all honestly, it will be interesting to see what the 18z NAM says and if it backs off the enormous amounts. Dude, You really need to reel yourself in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Good lord. Any caution flags left (not trying to be funny...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 elaborate....in class lol 1" contour goes over towards you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The location and tracks of the 850mb and 700mb centers will determine if we mix and how long if we do mix it lasts. GFS is a tad warmer then the NAM with the 850mb center traveling very close to the Islands. 700mb center is pretty much agreed upon. If 18z NAM holds serve we can pretty much get a handle on where these features will be. After the 00z runs we are looking at warnings being issued given that the storm starts THursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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