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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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Remember the Blizzard of 2005, a lot of local mets thought that a benchmark track will bring a nasty changeover or mix to the Cape and Islands.  Pete Brochard had us in the 16-20" range, but I ended up with 35" and a slight mix.  I think models overdo the mixing scenarios with the benchmark track.

 

 

2005 never really had dual 850 lows, which may have helped limit warm-layer development aloft. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0123.php

 

I would be surprised if you don't have some mixing at least early on, but the CCB should easily make up for it.

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Are snow accum rates going to be reduced by temperatures or something?  I've never seen 3.0" of all snow QPF turn into just 12-18" of snow.  

I think the thought is to keep things 'conservative' (never thought I'd say 12-18" is conservative) because these types of QPF numbers are so rare and even though model consensus is printing them out, it wouldn't take much of a shift to slash that QPF to amounts more supportive of 12-18".  Increase amounts as certainty increases if models keep printing out such obscene  QPF.

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What do you think about our spot in interior western CT?

I think that areas west of QPF max on models always do the best.. it seems like that always sets up over eastern new york through your area into the berks.. with this storm a slightly late bloomer and maybe just insided the Benchmark.. I am loving our position and think that we can get into a beautiful deform band friday night..

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Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF:

 

Augusta: 1.42”

Bangor: 1.10”

Bedford: 2.87”

Berlin: 1.24”

Beverly: 2.82”

Boston: 2.97”

Bridgeport: 1.56”

Chicopee Falls: 1.72”

Concord: 1.96”

Danbury: 1.41”

Fitchburg: 2.51”

Groton: 2.17”

Hartford: 1.79”

Hyannis: 2.58”

Jaffrey: 2.05”

Keene: 1.65”

Lebanon: 1.20”

Lewiston: 1.58”

Manchester: 2.32”

Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71”

Milton: 3.03”

Nashua: 2.43”

New Haven: 1.68”

Pittsfield: 1.38”

Plymouth: 2.89”

Portland: 1.99”

Portsmouth: 2.44”

Providence: 3.04”

Taunton: 3.06”

Westfield: 1.70”

Worcester: 2.54”

 

Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain.

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Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF:

 

Augusta: 1.42”

Bangor: 1.10”

Bedford: 2.87”

Berlin: 1.24”

Beverly: 2.82”

Boston: 2.97”

Bridgeport: 1.56”

Chicopee Falls: 1.72”

Concord: 1.96”

Danbury: 1.41”

Fitchburg: 2.51”

Groton: 2.17”

Hartford: 1.79”

Hyannis: 2.58”

Jaffrey: 2.05”

Keene: 1.65”

Lebanon: 1.20”

Lewiston: 1.58”

Manchester: 2.32”

Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71”

Milton: 3.03”

Nashua: 2.43”

New Haven: 1.68”

Pittsfield: 1.38”

Plymouth: 2.89”

Portland: 1.99”

Portsmouth: 2.44”

Providence: 3.04”

Taunton: 3.06”

Westfield: 1.70”

Worcester: 2.54”

 

Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain.

If you had to guess, how much of that 1.54 for BDR is snow?

 

-skisheep

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What do you think about our spot in interior western CT?

 

 

That place is always the jackpot...his home always jackpots...

 

That joke has literally gotten so old.

 

I think that areas west of QPF max on models always do the best.. it seems like that always sets up over eastern new york through your area into the berks.. with this storm a slightly late bloomer and maybe just insided the Benchmark.. I am loving our position and think that we can get into a beautiful deform band friday night..

 

I have seen that happen.  In the October storm that's what happened I believe...that band pivoted through extreme E NY into the litchfield hills and Berks.  Thats why most of us got around 2' and some more toward 30".  I'm at school right now so I haven't really paid attention to what home looks like...but you have got to think that anywhere in the region is in a good spot for this.  Still feeling ORH-TAN-BOS triangle for biggest accumulations.

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Another fantastic run. Some qpf figures from the 12z ECMWF:

 

Augusta: 1.42”

Bangor: 1.10”

Bedford: 2.87”

Berlin: 1.24”

Beverly: 2.82”

Boston: 2.97”

Bridgeport: 1.56”

Chicopee Falls: 1.72”

Concord: 1.96”

Danbury: 1.41”

Fitchburg: 2.51”

Groton: 2.17”

Hartford: 1.79”

Hyannis: 2.58”

Jaffrey: 2.05”

Keene: 1.65”

Lebanon: 1.20”

Lewiston: 1.58”

Manchester: 2.32”

Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71”

Milton: 3.03”

Nashua: 2.43”

New Haven: 1.68”

Pittsfield: 1.38”

Plymouth: 2.89”

Portland: 1.99”

Portsmouth: 2.44”

Providence: 3.04”

Taunton: 3.06”

Westfield: 1.70”

Worcester: 2.54”

 

Note: Not every city receives all snow. Some areas see at least a period of sleet and/or rain.

Hey Don, would you be able to post QPF totals for the NYC area in that subforum...much appreciated

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