Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2-3 feet for all folks. Call your friends., ring the bells, sound the alarms, hug a coworker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2" to about ToLL and near HFD. Maybe 2.3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So that late hook and H5 capture expands the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still gets the job done, Better here I like to hear that! I get worried about late developers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still a 2.5-3" qpf field for SNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 crushes E MA thx. I'm now on the train. Breakfast at my house Saturday, 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was it just SE of the BM before...so essentially held course but is better now due to a stall... Historic... Zeus - you on the train yet? It takes a further east path to get there. The change doesn't really effect "us" but as Ryan mentions further shifts would have it stalling further NE. ( I shouldn't say that, IMO it'd be colder for the coast with that track) It's been a progressive winter. Right now, epic and it stalls almost dead in the 0z spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 2.5+ BOS/ORH/TOL/PVD/CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Pretty much every piece of guidance is putting E MA under the sweet spot. Somewhere near BOS is going to probably put up a huge number. Regression......to......the.......MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Phil does the Cape stay all snow? we'd mix for a brief time...maybe go to rain for a short period...maybe...but that's a solid 1 to 2 feet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Scot how does the Cape look QPF wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 qpf looks like 2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So we see what a little shift can do, but the nrn shortwave digging is KEY...KEY. We still need to watch for some subtle shifts, but man...I am pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro is awesome!!!! I think a foot plus is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Stil ok for the CNE peeps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still gets the job done, Better here Elaborate? Having the usual problem of scrolling through multiple "east" posts. Sounds like it's east initially but then stalls and then maybe even does a little Fujiwara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 we'd mix for a brief time...maybe go to rain for a short period...maybe...but that's a solid 1 to 2 feet here. Nice thats great. How do winds look? It will be interesting to see the 18z NAM, the 12z run was an amazing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, and it should be made clear that this system really isn't a very good analog for 1978, though the ending impact in snow could rival that if the current modeling is good. One difference about the 1978 scenario is that the NAO teleconnector was dropping, and that allowed the stall to linger for a couple of reasons (for the general reader): 1) storms that "stall" because of capture, will tend to compensate/off-set for the background movement in the flow, because the sfc cyclone moves backward relative to the movement of the deep layer vortex, as it is being ingested into the central axis of the rotation. This is registered as a slowling, or even stall ..however brief. 2) in 1978, that took place with panache, but also ... the large scale flow was entering a blocking phase, placing a negative teleconnection right where the storm was passing through. The two circumstances together really caused a protracted event. ...and the impact on the ocean/shore thus suffered. In this case, we have more number 1, than number 2 in play. Concur completely!!! And agree with scenario #1. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think this trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro led every step of the way since last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Elaborate? Having the usual problem of scrolling through multiple "east" posts. Sounds like it's east initially but then stalls and then maybe even does a little Fujiwara? Late capture, Got tugged back, It actually got a little further north before it phased and closed off which really helps us here, 2.0"+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Now I can go public with the shift east...Ahhhhh! Not really a shift east in the end though, it just hooks out further east before getting captured. That's the remaining fear from guys like Scott/Ryan, it could hook later. Every piece of guidance agrees right now, even the JMA (which did shift south from last run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anybody out there kind enough to post an image of the Euro for us folk who are living by what we read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think this trends colder. Me too. GFS is probably a little warm/left. But still much time in between. I believe you said the GEFS were SE of the OP which would make sense. A track just SE or east of the BM and then hopefully the history making left hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not a pro, but I don't buy WHDH and the GFS?(I think that's what had the mixing issues on other runs) with mixing getting so far north just yet. If we keep seeing that on multiple models than maybe I would believe it . I think the issues of the mixing would be more a now cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 oh garsh your guys ... this storm is so utterly massive on that 72 hour panel that a shift of 50 or whatever miles means almost nothing... I mean, if we want to quibble over whether Ryan gets 20" or 12" ...or 8 or 10", okay - but that is tedious and boring compared to the big picture here. Although Ryan, how much hate mail do you field when you are off by 6" - haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I would like this to get just inside the BM... Your fine right where you are, Ratios should be 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I suppose there is wiggle room east, but I don't think it will matter a whole lot or be something like another 75 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the weaker srn stream keeps the nrn stream from digging since there is less shrtwave ridging ahead of it to block th eastward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wish this was 12z Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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