stormtracker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nah....depression originating from a woman....ugh. Sorry to hear dude. Consolation prize: 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 North Central Mass north of route 2 seems to be a likely spot for subsidence / dryslot issues between CCB and def band I could totally see this becoming an 8-12 kinda deal for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nah....depression originating from a woman....ugh. ***** is powerful, but fight through it...this could be epic...in a few months you wont care about the woman, but you will regret not caring about the KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 euro time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I could totally see this becoming an 8-12 kinda deal for us though.lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I booked my motel in Hadley, MA, good spot? I'm going to be part of your crew for a weeekend. I feel dirty as a traitor, but so ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol ok Well it's not likely but definitely possible. I'm saying 12+ right now... but that could certainly be tickled down a bit. There's a reason why historic storms are somewhat rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nah....depression originating from a woman....ugh. hang in there, ray. Glad to see you back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I booked my motel in Hadley, MA, good spot? Hadley? Terrible. They could easily miss out and wind up getting some downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This storm reminds me a lot of Feb 14 2007, but 100-200 mi further east: * Feb 2007 was the first significant snowstorm of the season, occurring mid-Feb after an otherwise snow-starved season * NAO is near neutral for both storms, with an AO<0 but not significantly so * Primary 850 mb low over southern Ontario / western NY state, eventually becoming overtaken by a secondary that forms over the Mid-Atlantic * Overall dominant northern-stream, but significant moisture source to the south * Cold high pressure over the Great Plains * Troughy over the SW U.S. Compare the upper-air pattern for Feb 2007 to the 54 h GFS forecast (especially at 850): Feb 2007 NARR: 07_0214.png.gif 12Z GFS 54h: gfs_f54.gif The most memorable thing about Feb 2007 for me was that I was in Albany at the time, and it was the day before the storm was the only time I had ever seen the NAM spit out >4" qpf of snow for KALB. GFS had something like 2/2.5" qpf snow, but in both models, Albany on north was expected to be in the jackpot. However, the strength of the primary over the Great Lakes was underestimated in all the guidance, even as the storm was beginning to unfold. Stronger WAA ahead of the primary resulted in a period of sleet over the Capital Region, reducing snowfall amounts. Just slightly further west, stronger deformation along a more impressive moist tongue in the region where the entire column remained below freezing resulted in 4-6" /hr all snow. Accumulation map shows a large area > 30", but west of all the guidance 24-48 hr before the event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2007/Feb_14_2007/SnowMap.jpg Clearly this is a different synoptic setup than 2007, but with the eerie similarities, I would not be surprised to see eastern MA / RI getting more sleet than currently modeled, with the "jackpot" shifting further west with time. Especially w.r.t. today's 12Z NAM. thaks for the great insight, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hadley? Terrible. They could easily miss out and wind up getting some downsloping. Try Marlboro/Westboro Ma area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I booked my motel in Hadley, MA, good spot? I'm going to be part of your crew for a weeekend. I feel dirty as a traitor, but so ready! Are you nuts? Worcester for God's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hadley? Terrible. They could easily miss out and wind up getting some downsloping. Book a hotel in Norwood, MA. Head up to the top of Blue Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well it's not likely but definitely possible. I'm saying 12+ right now... but that could certainly be tickled down a bit. There's a reason why historic storms are somewhat rare. i don't see how anyone in the state sees less than 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks Matt.Does he work with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Book a hotel in Norwood, MA. Head up to the top of Blue Hills. Hurricane sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay guys where should I go? Seriously want the perfect location! Marlboro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm not blaming anyone, John...just didn't want to take the time to go back 25 pages!! Sorry to imply that. Have LOTS to do today to get ready (and I'm shocked I haven't got a call...yet...). That's a very good point. That's a natural thought when thinking of stalling (which I didn't take the logical step...glad you did!! ). However, lots more development along the coast, so could still be bad. Could be two tide cycles?? (For those that don't recall...'78 had FOUR tide cycles with continuous flooding.) --Turtle Yeah, and it should be made clear that this system really isn't a very good analog for 1978, though the ending impact in snow could rival that if the current modeling is good. One difference about the 1978 scenario is that the NAO teleconnector was dropping, and that allowed the stall to linger for a couple of reasons (for the general reader): 1) storms that "stall" because of capture, will tend to compensate/off-set for the background movement in the flow, because the sfc cyclone moves backward relative to the movement of the deep layer vortex, as it is being ingested into the central axis of the rotation. This is registered as a slowling, or even stall ..however brief. 2) in 1978, that took place with panache, but also ... the large scale flow was entering a blocking phase, placing a negative teleconnection right where the storm was passing through. The two circumstances together really caused a protracted event. ...and the impact on the ocean/shore thus suffered. In this case, we have more number 1, than number 2 in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ok folks, I created a storm banter thread to discuss all things storm related outside of the models. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39221-february-8-9th-storm-banter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am just blown away from this morning's model runs for snow totals...Severe Epic snow event upcoming for New England...I saw snow totals like this back in the 70's but folks..this is just outright insane for what we will be seeing unfold across the region Friday and into the weekend...who would of thought this was going to happen...coming out of almost a benign winter and BAM! Clearly historical in all respects. http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine Craig What do you think Sugarloaf will get out of this? Thanks Craig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Convection in the GOM is going to be impressive. Note that the Euro develops the low squarely over the complex in the NE Gulf. BTW, Jeremy saying rain snow line is in Plymouth County and that the 4-8 is not set in stone...which IMO read to me like he thinks maybe less. WHDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Convection in the GOM is going to be impressive. Note that the Euro develops the low squarely over the complex in the NE Gulf. Northern s/w a little more stout then 0z and slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I could totally see this becoming an 8 deal for Tolland and 12 kinda deal for the rest of us though. TOTALLY agree, Ryan - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Book a hotel in Norwood, MA. Head up to the top of Blue Hills. I think I'm finally going to buy some snowshoes after work today. The Blue Hills should be awesome this weekend for snowshoeing, and I can walk there if the roads are impassable! Hard to believe the model agreement at this point - I never thought I'd see anything like the amount of snow in 78, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i don't see how anyone in the state sees less than 12-15 And that's why you're not a met! Meteorology is better than modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hurricane sustained? Nope. BHO generally gets sustained of 40-50 in events like these with gusts between 60-70 mph. Winds need to be from the south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does he work with you? LOL, Zwtys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At least to start through 48 the Euro has the east look in terms of moisture. IE, I don't think it's closing off as early this run. (Not east out to sea, just east as in where it's originating in NC/VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I booked my motel in Hadley, MA, good spot? I'm going to be part of your crew for a weeekend. I feel dirty as a traitor, but so ready! NO. I lived and worked there for a time.. Screwzone city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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