Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Several GEFS members get sleet into interior CT for a time...it goes back to heavy snow, but might be something to watch for CT/RI and SE MA. Will I'll be very surprised if I don't mix or flip for a bit, just the nature of the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Several GEFS members get sleet into interior CT for a time...it goes back to heavy snow, but might be something to watch for CT/RI and SE MA.Yeah even up to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 In winter 2004 "white Juan" hit Nova Scotia. This looks like being "white Sandy" -- if it pulls together. Here's something else to ponder. New moon dates Mar 12 1888 12z (no precise data but close to perigeean) Feb 7 1978 15z (perigee Feb 5 12z) Feb 10 2013 07z (perigee Feb 7 12z ------------------------------------- Just looking at new GGEM 72h and it stays with the program, based on that would say snowfall potential is 20-35 inches for BOS and 25-40 inches a few miles inland to almost PVD, 20 inch contour central Long Island through central CT and MA into se NH and running about I-95 to Bangor then into central NB. Some local max could be four feet (!!). 10 inch contour looks to be about JFK to western MA to central NH. Agree with concerns about hurricane force gusts over Cape and rain-snow line would edge just southeast of BOS to Newport RI line at height of storm, so that snowfall amounts 10-20 inches and rainfall 1.0-2.0 inches in a zone of s.e. MA and 5-10 inches snow with 2.0-3.0 in rain on the outer Cape and the islands. Winds could reach NE 60 mph gusting to 90 in that zone, 45 gusting 70 BOS. This looks to have epic potential, near-perigeean new moon aspects will heighten storm surge and wave overtopping concerns anywhere south of NH-ME border for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Several GEFS members get sleet into interior CT for a time...it goes back to heavy snow, but might be something to watch for CT/RI and SE MA. The taint is still a concern. What's the overall look on the GEFS members... good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Several GEFS members get sleet into interior CT for a time...it goes back to heavy snow, but might be something to watch for CT/RI and SE MA. Agreed. Also watch for some funky dry slot/banding issues between the core of the cold conveyorbelt and a second batch of forcing from the deformation well north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Holy moly at this morning's runs...incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How ironic that this is pulling together on the 35th anniversary of the Blizzard of '78. One of the earlier posts (and I'm not going through 25 prior pages...sorry) stated something about new moon and moon perigee. Guess what? It's lining up VERY similar to the '78 storm... New Moon Sunday 2/10 1223 AM Moon Perigee Thursday 2/7 709 AM (hope I have the times right). Now, it's not perfect, but it's darn close. Those of you whom were not around for '78, this may just be the storm you'll be talking about to your kids and grandkids. Only one problem I'm having...stalling. From what I see on the GEM above, the H5 is not cutting off. I did notice on the GFS that it was slowing down, hence the longer period now mentioned on the AFD and winter storm watch. VERY interesting times coming... --Turtle I am guilty - it was me; well, it may have been one other, not sure, but I mentioned the Spring Tide schedule and concern. One saving plausibility ... or at least question here is whether this systems life spans consecutive high tides. The first would be impressive in there is an anomaly in place, but the 2nd is usually the bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah even up to ORH There is one member that probably gets it up this far north. But def a legit possibility down in your neck of the woods for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, this should elicit a great deal of excitement from me.....but ehhh..... Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol weenie SNE nation, take pictures post them in 35 years for my grandkids. Steady as she goes, one more day and I am all in. One of my life's biggest regrets is not having pics from '78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, this should elicit a great deal of excitement from me.....but ehhh..... Enjoy did Aliens abduct you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, this should elicit a great deal of excitement from me.....but ehhh..... Enjoy That's my boy. Play it cool. Hold the line. I was in NJ for March 2002. I shall say nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There is one member that probably gets it up this far north. But def a legit possibility down in your neck of the woods for a time.Considering the thermal profile history of the GFS I'm not worried..ESP when its the only model showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Boston Mets Forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Several GEFS members get sleet into interior CT for a time...it goes back to heavy snow, but might be something to watch for CT/RI and SE MA specifically Mt Tolland in CT. Could see it sleeting at that specific location for the main heavy time of the storm. Yeah Will... seems a lockable solution there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What is revolutions per minute printing out for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol weenie SNE nation, take pictures post them in 35 years for my grandkids. Steady as she goes, one more day and I am all in. In Mahayana Buddhism, February 8th is Nirvana Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, this should elicit a great deal of excitement from me.....but ehhh..... Enjoy RIP old Ray why reserved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah Will... seems a lockable solution there -North Central Mass north of route 2 seems to be a likely spot for subsidence / dryslot issues between CCB and def band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BOS may be the big winner in this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am just blown away from this morning's model runs for snow totals...Severe Epic snow event upcoming for New England...I saw snow totals like this back in the 70's but folks..this is just outright insane for what we will be seeing unfold across the region Friday and into the weekend...who would of thought this was going to happen...coming out of almost a benign winter and BAM! Clearly historical in all respects. http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine Craig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 did Aliens abduct you? Nah....depression originating from a woman....ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 North Central Mass north of route 2 seems to be a likely spot for subsidence / dryslot issues between CCB and def band Shhhhh...hush you (although I am technically south by 2 miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BOS may be the big winner in this whole thing. Pretty much every piece of guidance is putting E MA under the sweet spot. Somewhere near BOS is going to probably put up a huge number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am guilty - it was me; well, it may have been one other, not sure, but I mentioned the Spring Tide schedule and concern. One saving plausibility ... or at least question here is whether this systems life spans consecutive high tides. I'm not blaming anyone, John...just didn't want to take the time to go back 25 pages!! Sorry to imply that. Have LOTS to do today to get ready (and I'm shocked I haven't got a call...yet...). That's a very good point. That's a natural thought when thinking of stalling (which I didn't take the logical step...glad you did!! ). However, lots more development along the coast, so could still be bad. Could be two tide cycles?? (For those that don't recall...'78 had FOUR tide cycles with continuous flooding.) --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 FML, all I have is a Pea Coat up here.. Must buy Jacket before Friday... Can't wait to see what the EURO is putting out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm rooting for you guys...strongly...seriously..I have no idea why, but I hope you clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nah....depression originating from a woman....ugh. Always sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This storm reminds me a lot of Feb 14 2007, but 100-200 mi further east: * Feb 2007 was the first significant snowstorm of the season, occurring mid-Feb after an otherwise snow-starved season * NAO is near neutral for both storms, with an AO<0 but not significantly so * Primary 850 mb low over southern Ontario / western NY state, eventually becoming overtaken by a secondary that forms over the Mid-Atlantic * Overall dominant northern-stream, but significant moisture source to the south * Cold high pressure over the Great Plains * Troughy over the SW U.S. Compare the upper-air pattern for Feb 2007 to the 54 h GFS forecast (especially at 850): Feb 2007 NARR: 12Z GFS 54h: The most memorable thing about Feb 2007 for me was that I was in Albany at the time, and it was the day before the storm was the only time I had ever seen the NAM spit out >4" qpf of snow for KALB. GFS had something like 2/2.5" qpf snow, but in both models, Albany on north was expected to be in the jackpot. However, the strength of the primary over the Great Lakes was underestimated in all the guidance, even as the storm was beginning to unfold. Stronger WAA ahead of the primary resulted in a period of sleet over the Capital Region, reducing snowfall amounts. Just slightly further west, stronger deformation along a more impressive moist tongue in the region where the entire column remained below freezing resulted in 4-6" /hr all snow. Accumulation map shows a large area > 30", but west of all the guidance 24-48 hr before the event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2007/Feb_14_2007/SnowMap.jpg Clearly this is a different synoptic setup than 2007, but with the eerie similarities, I would not be surprised to see eastern MA / RI getting more sleet than currently modeled, with the "jackpot" shifting further west with time. Especially w.r.t. today's 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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