Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too bad the GFS is only showing 3"... oh, wait... qpf??? My desk just tipped over. Anyhoo...my teaching over the next 2 days will be not so effective methinks. Ok, kids, forget the curriculum. Time to show you some weather porn I hope you are not typing these posts from your school's network domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is what we're going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 just not looking hard enough, imo. Agreed. BOX has new map out and it's substantially more than the WHDH one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey, things could fluctuate quite a bit in the next 24 hours. Any takers? It probably will, but for an area like Boston, 50 miles isn't going to make a massive difference at this stage...maybe it would cut snow totals from 25" to 18" if we saw a 50 mile shift east and 50 miles west probably isn't even enough to get mixing in there...perhaps for a brief time. I'm still holding onto a bit of caution, but we are now starting to hone in on a solution where the wiggles won't make too much difference. Esp when the model consensus is so high...we don't have a ton of spread now. Once inside of 60 hours, 100+ mile shifts are tougher to get...though still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bad call for this region based on guidance. Even on the GFS there are screaming NNE and NE winds at 8h as the low pulls away = mega OES type snows with cold 8h temps. I'm just confused by that WHDH graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey, things could fluctuate quite a bit in the next 24 hours. Any takers? Ha ha ...oh man. if i were that impish god that likes to f with the hearts and souls of the beleaguered participants, i don't know if the Euro should pull plug now, or wait another 24 hours to really get the fervor in here elevated to exotic energy, first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is what we're going with. Ha, nice - so if people routinely call in 30" totals you nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New BOX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Waiting on the Euro (don't expect a major change) then I am pulling the trigger on a road trip to Boston tomorrow night thru Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 just not looking hard enough, imo. I thought maybe I was missing something. Sure on the GFS there's a warm punch, but once the storm pulls east that just screams epic coastal snows on those NE winds. 2-4 just seems absolutely ridiculous based on the guidance available so far. The GGEM is out in B&W. Use your imagination but it looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ha, nice - so if people routinely call in 30" totals you nailed it! Exactly. Keeps the slant-stickers happy. This far out I think it's reasonable to be a bit vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS snow map (through Sunday morning)Congrats on 24 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New BOX map StormTotalSnowFcst.png not too many times you could look at that and honestly say "double it" and still be within the realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 INSANE never seen that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 In winter 2004 "white Juan" hit Nova Scotia. This looks like being "white Sandy" -- if it pulls together. Here's something else to ponder. New moon dates Mar 12 1888 12z (no precise data but close to perigeean) Feb 7 1978 15z (perigee Feb 5 12z) Feb 10 2013 07z (perigee Feb 7 12z ------------------------------------- Just looking at new GGEM 72h and it stays with the program, based on that would say snowfall potential is 20-35 inches for BOS and 25-40 inches a few miles inland to almost PVD, 20 inch contour central Long Island through central CT and MA into se NH and running about I-95 to Bangor then into central NB. Some local max could be four feet (!!). 10 inch contour looks to be about JFK to western MA to central NH. Agree with concerns about hurricane force gusts over Cape and rain-snow line would edge just southeast of BOS to Newport RI line at height of storm, so that snowfall amounts 10-20 inches and rainfall 1.0-2.0 inches in a zone of s.e. MA and 5-10 inches snow with 2.0-3.0 in rain on the outer Cape and the islands. Winds could reach NE 60 mph gusting to 90 in that zone, 45 gusting 70 BOS. This looks to have epic potential, near-perigeean new moon aspects will heighten storm surge and wave overtopping concerns anywhere south of NH-ME border for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not too many times you could look at that and honestly say "double it" and still be within the realm of possibility Indeed. Plenty of time to ramp it up. 4pm package will be a good read from BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 gfs BUTKIT was a bit weird for BOS. Shows kinda meager omegas and they aren't centered in the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It must blow to have to put such specific accumulation maps out this early. I mean why does BOS have to put down 14-18" already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I thought maybe I was missing something. Sure on the GFS there's a warm punch, but once the storm pulls east that just screams epic coastal snows on those NE winds. 2-4 just seems absolutely ridiculous based on the guidance available so far. The GGEM is out in B&W. Use your imagination but it looks very good. Not hard to do when you cant see New England behind all the isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Exactly. Keeps the slant-stickers happy. This far out I think it's reasonable to be a bit vague. oh absolutely - i was just thinking though that it's good for comedy bit, "Epic blizzard of historic proportions poised unleash it's fury on the northeast, with very high confidence that an inch + will smother the region..." Hey, 50" is more than an inch - we're golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol...the soundings are insane. and i think the euro would be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too bad the GFS is only showing 3"... oh, wait... qpf??? My desk just tipped over. Anyhoo...my teaching over the next 2 days will be not so effective methinks. Ok, kids, forget the curriculum. Time to show you some weather porn Come teach up here man! I'm so screwed for the next two days...no work being done...might skip Friday classes...the things I do for a historic blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Someone should start a bet/challenge thread for which cycle NWS pulls the blizzard warning trigger.... I'm guessing tomorrow night there will be a blizz watch in place - say, 4pm AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone have a time table for all of this? Trying to look at the tide schedule, anyone think flooding could be an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow, From Fox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not hard to do when you cant see New England behind all the isobars 50mm down this way and still going at it. Geez. There's 5-10 mm on each 12 hour period on either side, total down here is probably 60mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats on 24 plus I think we're right on the cusp. Personally, my call is 12-18" for my house attm. I'm hoping for a slight shift of the 18-24" westward, but I'm happy for my eastern brethren. This is looking like it's going to be a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ensembles are big too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL WMUR Manchester NH Ch 9 headlines. Met says heavy rain eventually going over to heavy snow. and this is for NH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does anyone even want to see the new Euro run at this point ? Everything is just set up so perfect ...you almost fear, however irrational it is to do so, that ANY run will have to be less. Which means of course, if it comes in with the 30-50" totals it had on the 12z yesterday, up from 00z's run, it will be truly be no words. This is an unusual background canvas to get this type of impact - really. There's isn't much blocking, and it is not like we are in the midst of a big teleconnector modal change - usually these kind of big time deals have markers in the field. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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