MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Everyone better have their cameras ready. When was the last time Boston received over 20 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The only thing that could make a solution like that any better for the storm-heads is if it slowed down. The GFS is still sling-shotting it seaward with a good bit or rapidity. I think though that it may be a bit on the fast side of the envelope, and owing to its native progressivity bias ... it may not be the right tool for the job in this case. We discussed how the GFS might resurface with its fast bias, once the flow slowed a little. Anyway, I just passed over the entire evolution of the mid level impulse(s) starting at the 0 hour and going out to 84 on the 12z NAM; it's fascinating, but between now and 12 hours from now, there is almost 0 indication/observation in the run that there is even a S/W present in the flow - much less any feature capable of that kind of horror. Yet, as you click into 30 and 48 hours ...etc, it just seems to emerge out of no where, getting sharper and sharper, then, a weak southern stream 500mb "dent" (for lack of better word) whips around the eastern flank of the trough as it nears the upper MA, around 60 to 66 hours and booom! It cores out a 4 contoured hole in the atmosphere just absolutely in the perfect idealized location relative to SNE. Now seeing the GFS do the same thing, albeit faster to complete the deed, and considering the Euro's recent consistencies with this, the confidence has gotten high for a higher ...if not severe impact event. I am also concerned about the New Moon and if there is a spring tide associated.. Wind: That kind of rapid cyclogen in differential to a 1035'ish MB polar high parked quintessentially perfect for imposing a very steep gradient should bring a wind hammer. Not so much in the interior, but if a CF sets up, anywhere on the oceanic side is likely to damaging gusts. One saving chance is that often rapid deepeners will pull the wind vector into cross isobaric flow, and that nuance about this system, if so, may mean less velocity with more backed streamlines. QPF: no words! It's hard to imagine that deep layer evolution can take place that way with out lighting and thunder, and it forces one to ponder if the big giant choking numbers are in fact thunderstorm output in a snowing column. Frontogenic forcing has got to be ludicrous here - Meso: Deformation, frontogenic meso band with convective output, flop-side CF are all likely to produce embedded local maxes and it is virtually impossible to know where those band will align. Anywhere in between still gets pummeled here... This type of layout is one where for at least one interval 3 to perhaps 6 hours, the rad presentation is quite uniform. Top tier scenarios do that. But I suspect the GFS is too fast to propagate the deep layer vortex eastward when it closes and captures the sfc system; typically this physical process will compensate for the background motion for at least a time as the sfc low can even stall and move NW for an hour or two. Just about as that is ending is when the rad may part into banded features that are rocking and rolling. Wow, I'm going out for a smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tim Kelly just tweeted mixing issues on the SNE coast, east of 3A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Im contemplating a road trip from Buffalo to Boston lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tim Kelly just tweeted mixing issues on the SNE coast, east of 3A. gfs shows that briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Question for Dryslot.....Do you know off hand what the NAM qpf is for Augusta area?? curious....But overall one insane weather event coming...reminds me of the big storms back in the 70's..I was up here for the bliz of 78 in Augusta...I was actually taking pictures for the Kennebec Journal at that time.. Thanks Craig http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Canadian also shows a lot of snow for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wasn't aware of this but KTAN has winter storm watches up already - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's mind numbing trying to discuss the potential there is here for an amazing storm and most of them are just saying, "yeah I saw something like 4-6..no biggie"...ugh...I need more meteorological savvy friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Leaning that way. Today might be the last day I can physically attend classes. I'm so excited lol If models don't change too much...its not even close...go back home. You might get 18" of fluff up there but if you do, its probably 25-30 inches of denser snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bob, whats your thoughts for the rt44 area? I'm waiting on the rest of the 12z suite to come out before I jump all in. Right now I'm leaning towards a huge hit for the SE MA area. Right now it looks like we'll get the initial WAA snows as the southern stream rolls up the coast and as the northern stream dives in and captures it, we'll have the CCB snows kick in. There might be a sneaky warm layer in there that may give us some sleet, verbatim. This looks like a classic BM storm with a slight "stall" that would prolong the system for a few hours (6-8hrs) If I was to worry about a changeover time, it would be in that transition time as the 2 systems merge S of LI. Timing of that is critical. I feel confident about 6-10" falling right now based on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tim Kelly just tweeted mixing issues on the SNE coast, east of 3A. I think that's pretty much a given in any of these epic type events. Question is how much. As it is now it's an ideal track to cool the CP pretty quickly even where it does warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Consensus snowfall forecast using GFS/NAM/ECM for HVN-BDL-BAF: 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frozenoze Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 watches up now for N.CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too bad the GFS is only showing 3"... oh, wait... qpf??? My desk just tipped over. Anyhoo...my teaching over the next 2 days will be not so effective methinks. Ok, kids, forget the curriculum. Time to show you some weather porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM is out through 60, on the bus fully too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 O god...the maps coming out are straight porn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Question for Dryslot.....Do you know off hand what the NAM qpf is for Augusta area?? curious....But overall one insane weather event coming...reminds me of the big storms back in the 70's..I was up here for the bliz of 78 in Augusta...I was actually taking pictures for the Kennebec Journal at that time.. Thanks Craig http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta 3.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People get ready. This deserves to be hyped starting this afternoon in the media. It's interesting to "possibly" go well beyond the average seasonal snow totals from a single event. ...Particularly when going from a deficit to an event-ending total that could so far exceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well every major model for 12z is showing >20" of snow for BOS...waiting on Euro but I'm guessing its not going to back down. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 O god...the maps coming out are straight porn... Okay, based on everything I've read here mixing is only going to be a brief problem down here. So why are all the TV mets giving Phil less from this event than the fluff bombs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 All of RI and MA (including CC and islands) now under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 love seeing the winter storm watch on the bottom of the screen saying 2 to 3 inches an hour possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey, things could fluctuate quite a bit in the next 24 hours. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You Boston people diserve this so much. So happy for all of you. Im contimplating coming down from Buffalo and if not I will be glued to TWC watching Cantore report live. Congrats everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm curious if anyone could do a comparison between the setup for this storm and the storm which hit Nova Scotia/ Newfoundland on Monday. Is the set up similar but a few hundred miles west? It deepened very rapidly from 1000 mb down to 950. There have been a couple of bombs out in the Atlantic and I was wondering if they are comps at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Winter Storm Watches are up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay, based on everything I've read here mixing is only going to be a brief problem down here. So why are all the TV mets giving Phil less from this event than the fluff bombs? just not looking hard enough, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS snow map (through Sunday morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay, based on everything I've read here mixing is only going to be a brief problem down here. So why are all the TV mets giving Phil less from this event than the fluff bombs? Bad call for this region based on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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