powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow is all I can say. I'm speechless at some of these runs. This is going to be special to watch unfold. I'd be getting ready to pull the trigger on some near HECS totals for a good chunk of SNE and up the coast of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Man that's a flag pole right there. I agree...would think after euro, it may be time to think about prolific numbers. Nah. Still 24 hours for wiggle. Keep it cool. Keep it calm. Keep that friggin 0º C iso south of my backyard and keep the dry slot nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That truly is a blizzard. Hurricane force winds along the coast. Probably 1-3 feet region wide. What;s it look like for the Cape precip type wise? That's a tree-leveler out here after we flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Nam up here 49.7".......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well this is why we wait through 12z guidance because questions will be answered. This just may be the real deal Holyfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow is all I can say. I'm speechless at some of these runs. This is going to be special to watch unfold. I'd be getting ready to pull the trigger on some near HECS totals for a good chunk of SNE and up the coast of NNE. probably warning criteria in all of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will, can you post the 48 and 60 hr UKMET images, also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is some sick VV's from the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hurricane force winds for Cape Cod, MA 18" total accumulations, heavy rains, trees falling down everywhere. However I find it hard to believe that we will get a lot of rain considering the comma head comes right over us for a while and plus storm takes a BM track which will benefit a lot with temps. Also an earlier phase will allow a colder solution for coastal New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's hard to fathom in a winter like this. Seriously. But you can't ignore the signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hurricane force winds for Cape Cod, MA 18" total accumulations, heavy rains, trees falling down everywhere. However I find it hard to believe that we will get a lot of rain considering the comma head comes right over us for a while and plus storm takes a BM track which will benefit a lot with temps. Also an earlier phase will allow a colder solution for coastal New England. You don't have to say cape cod ma every time you post. We know where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well this is why we wait through 12z guidance because questions will be answered. This just may be the real deal Holyfield. I wish it was closer than 60-72 hours away. You said yesterday it couldn't get any better but it did. Unbelievable. BTW, Canadians are on board too. RGEM looks quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's hard to fathom in a winter like this. Seriously. But you can't ignore the signals. It would be differnt if you were getting these solutions on a couple models, But when you have most all heading that way, It can't be ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has 70 mph + gusts for Boston with over 2 feet of snow. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For BOS WTF? Soundings show 2.2" frozen all the way back to BDL on the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's hard to fathom in a winter like this. Seriously. But you can't ignore the signals. winter of 06 comes to mind...also Feb 78 was the only measurable snowfall that month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 THe QPF from the GFS is just as crazy, if not, even more impressive than the NAM. That you don't see too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 THe QPF from the GFS is just as crazy, if not, even more impressive than the NAM. That you don't see too often. Its almost not fathomable, But you see almost all the models spitting out these totals, This would have to be an epic falure at this point if it would not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just landed at MCO. How is it looking here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh my god on the GFS....what a ridiculous bomb The only thing that could make a solution like that any better for the storm-heads is if it slowed down. The GFS is still sling-shotting it seaward with a good bit or rapidity. I think though that it may be a bit on the fast side of the envelope, and owing to its native progressivity bias ... it may not be the right tool for the job in this case. We discussed how the GFS might resurface with its fast bias, once the flow slowed a little. Anyway, I just passed over the entire evolution of the mid level impulse(s) starting at the 0 hour and going out to 84 on the 12z NAM; it's fascinating, but between now and 12 hours from now, there is almost 0 indication/observation in the run that there is even a S/W present in the flow - much less any feature capable of that kind of horror. Yet, as you click into 30 and 48 hours ...etc, it just seems to emerge out of no where, getting sharper and sharper, then, a weak southern stream 500mb "dent" (for lack of better word) whips around the eastern flank of the trough as it nears the upper MA, around 60 to 66 hours and booom! It cores out a 4 contoured hole in the atmosphere just absolutely in the perfect idealized location relative to SNE. Now seeing the GFS do the same thing, albeit faster to complete the deed, and considering the Euro's recent consistencies with this, the confidence has gotten high for a higher ...if not severe impact event. I am also concerned about the New Moon and if there is a spring tide associated.. Wind: That kind of rapid cyclogen in differential to a 1035'ish MB polar high parked quintessentially perfect for imposing a very steep gradient should bring a wind hammer. Not so much in the interior, but if a CF sets up, anywhere on the oceanic side is likely to damaging gusts. One saving chance is that often rapid deepeners will pull the wind vector into cross isobaric flow, and that nuance about this system, if so, may mean less velocity with more backed streamlines. QPF: no words! It's hard to imagine that deep layer evolution can take place that way with out lighting and thunder, and it forces one to ponder if the big giant choking numbers are in fact thunderstorm output in a snowing column. Frontogenic forcing has got to be ludicrous here - Meso: Deformation, frontogenic meso band with convective output, flop-side CF are all likely to produce embedded local maxes and it is virtually impossible to know where those band will align. Anywhere in between still gets pummeled here... This type of layout is one where for at least one interval 3 to perhaps 6 hours, the rad presentation is quite uniform. Top tier scenarios do that. But I suspect the GFS is too fast to propagate the deep layer vortex eastward when it closes and captures the sfc system; typically this physical process will compensate for the background motion for at least a time as the sfc low can even stall and move NW for an hour or two. Just about as that is ending is when the rad may part into banded features that are rocking and rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just landed at MCO. How is it looking here? La epic, Nam.....lol Spit out 49.7" here, Use your imagination for you, GFS was solid as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The question is...should I go home or could plymouth get 2 feet also lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The question is...should I go home or could plymouth get 2 feet also lol Home since you would get more there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looping the 700mb images on NCEP is a thing of beauty. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't think I've ever seen the 50" mark on the Meteograms: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=korh http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People get ready. This deserves to be hyped starting this afternoon in the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its almost not fathomable, But you see almost all the models spitting out these totals, This would have to be an epic falure at this point if it would not happen I would still think both are overdone but the question is to what degree? At this point it would be hard to think less than 1.5'' of QPF falling and that alone still would give substantial totals and would create a major mess, especially if the snow is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Home since you would get more there Leaning that way. Today might be the last day I can physically attend classes. I'm so excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z NAM Bufkit for the records: Bufkit.png 12z GFS total qpf for the records: gfs_namer_078_precip_p60.gif the bufkit output is utter INSANITY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So I'm driving up to Conway on Friday. Should I just stay home? Any chance they close down the ski resorts due to the wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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