Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM tossed regarding QPF. agree.. but this is likely a weenie statement.. looking at the rain rates down south, this will have lots of moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM tossed regarding QPF. I'd say toss regarding a few things... but hey, it's fun to look at, isn't it? I think the promising takeaway here is that even with things looking warm up to 60 hrs, it keeps things relatively cold north of the CT/RI-MA border. When the 850's crash could be very big for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The only thing I do like, is the NAM 32F depiction near the coastline over BOS. That's the only thing I agree with..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When you have a srn stream disturbance it injects high amounts of moisture, but this is nuts. NAM is WAAAYYY to wet. I'm just trying to install some sanity this morning...we really have a lot of questions to be answered. A lot of dry humping of a model people thought should be discontinued before this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL...it looks like the NAM gets confused because it merges the snow band from the primary low into the CCB from the coastal and goes off the charts insane. I've never seen that sort of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When you have a srn stream disturbance it injects high amounts of moisture, but this is nuts. NAM is WAAAYYY to wet. I'm just trying to install some sanity this morning...we really have a lot of questions to be answered. I agree with the QPF totals, but wrt to the storm evolution, the NAM just bowed to the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 am I the only person who hates the NAM? OMG though some of those numbers it's putting up are insane, if this verified verbatim it would absolutley shut down most of new england, except for here which is nothing. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yeah I'd cut it in half but even then it is one of the biggest eastern New England blizzards ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM tossed regarding QPF. 30 foot drifts here we come. It's almost impossible to believe all of this but stranger things have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM has max QPF in SE MA of over 5 inches of melted, how the hell is that even possible? 2-4 inches of QPF from western MA through NH and a lot of central and southern ME. I don't really think this will happen but man, that is one hell of a run. I would completely disregard this if it was not for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I agree with the QPF totals, but wrt to the storm evolution, the NAM just bowed to the Euro solution. Yeah, The evolution did not seem that far fetched, It phased further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 can't wait to see clown maps based on this NAM run! Here you go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Forget the NAM. "Toss" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 can't wait to see clown maps based on this NAM run! lol, The precip was still not done @ hr 84............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A lot of dry humping of a model people thought should be discontinued before this run. Thing about the nam is it either nails It or Scott norwoods it. It did do well with a miss a week or so ago. I'm not making an argument for the qpf it's showing. To me there's some convective issues at play earlier on that is probably contributing to initially too much qpf before the system moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Pressure gradient does rival 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So unless we're getting the biggest snowstorm in recorded history it's probably safe to say there will not be five feet of snow... Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If I'm reading it right even the SREF mean is giving 2" qpf to boston. That's incredible for a mean. Many members must be 3"+ considering some are probably whiffs. Zucker told me the record is 2.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yeah maybe the euro qpf wasnt so crazy after all If I'm reading it right even the SREF mean is giving 2" qpf to boston. That's incredible for a mean. Many members must be 3"+ considering some are probably whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 If I'm reading it right even the SREF mean is giving 2" qpf to boston. That's incredible for a mean. Many members must be 3"+ considering some are probably whiffs. lol, I bet there will be some weenie members showing 60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the GFS will be telling.. I think its going to go all the way to the Euro solution this run, just judging by what the NAM did, the NAM loves having those NRN STREAM waves way north and this phased just off LI a bit north of where the Euro had been phasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When you have a srn stream disturbance it injects high amounts of moisture, but this is nuts. NAM is WAAAYYY to wet. I'm just trying to install some sanity this morning...we really have a lot of questions to be answered. Hey, I think you know I'm in lockstep with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Calm the weenies. NAM is absurd. 4" for LL, 30" for Ginxy? yeah ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Calm the weenies. NAM is absurd. 4" for LL, 30" for Ginxy? yeah ok If the Euro would not be spitting out insane totals everyone would just laugh this one off............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 can delete if needed but this was funny: Dave Epstein @growingwisdom My 82 year old aunt just called me asking about the Euro versus the GFS. My entire secretive meteorological world is now open to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM has max QPF in SE MA of over 5 inches of melted, how the hell is that even possible? 2-4 inches of QPF from western MA through NH and a lot of central and southern ME. I don't really think this will happen but man, that is one hell of a run. I would completely disregard this if it was not for the Euro. Just pure premium weather porn on the NAM. Sure cut those QPF by even 2/3's still a huge hit. We know something big is going to happen. Enjoy mornings like this boys, you wait all year for runs like this! Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thing about the nam is it either nails It or Scott norwoods it. It did do well with a miss a week or so ago. I'm not making an argument for the qpf it's showing. To me there's some convective issues at play earlier on that is probably contributing to initially too much qpf before the system moves east Of course, there are some things it does well. I'm just commenting on the fact that most people here toss it immediately...until it shows 4" frozen QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Of course, there are some things it does well. I'm just commenting on the fact that most people here toss it immediately...until it shows 4" frozen QPF. Good call on isolating watches to southern areas...possibly building them northward if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The important this is this now shows the phase, If the GFS and Euro follow suit confidence in the phase solution increases dramatically. Question becomes when and where it occurs. Am not paying too much attention to QPF personally. Give me another 24 hours for that. Still slight potential for it to occur too far E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I was just thinking about how I'm fine with no big wind as long as I can watch hours of SN+ coming straight down. Creates a beutiful silence when you are out in it. PDII was like that out here. Perfect for a Jebwalk. Pre-phase the wind vectors cancel out a bit here which reduces the downsloping effect. Afterward we might rip ENE for a while before going NE, but I'm not expecting a major valley underperformance with this one, at least due to orography. Possibly lack of dynamics or QPF if it trends offshore further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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