Srain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not sure if it has been mentioned but WSR data was ingested for the 00Z suite from the Gulf: NCEP Operational Status Message Wed Feb 6 03:14:21 2013 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 060312ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0309Z WED FEB 06 2013THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FORGFS INGEST INCLUDED 13 ALASKAN...29 CANADIAN...70 CONUS...11MEXICAN...1 CARIBBEAN...AND 15 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE GULF OFMEXICO COURTESY OF USAF RESERVE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT.HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So we're going to ignore the fact that the SREF's have been nigh unusable garbage all year? Not the point. All guidance is hitting it harder and harder as we move closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is looking good, going to meeting keep the updates coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A **weird look**. You've said this quite a bit about the recent model runs, do you feel they're just not handling the system correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 At this point Is the GFS the only model that shows the coast and South shore of MA starting as rain? I think the GGEM and Ukie were pretty amped as well, But don't hold me to it.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A weird look. Agreed....it had a similar zone on the 00z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is a lot slower this run then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A weird look. Brian's SREF ARW model is a weenie dream. Spits out like 4" for the OWD area. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You've said this quite a bit about the recent model runs, do you feel they're just not handling the system correctly? The GFS could be handling it fine..it's possible with hge VVs with the CCB and the subsidence zone west until you hit the deformation zone. See Boxing day 2010. I really don't know, other than to point to the fact that we have several issues to work out..but many are fixated on snow amounts I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A weird look. Among the many issues left to work out. I was waiting for someone to utter that ugly word. I take it the euro has no such thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is a lot slower this run then 06z If that's the case, that would lead towards the Euro solution for timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A weird look. When dealing with a system as intense and large as this looks to be there is almost certain to be a dry slot and this really needs to be kept in mind when making snowfall forecasts, especially for where the higher end totals are being forecasted for. There also looks like there could be one area of major subsidence which will screw up some forecasts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS has an ugly dryslot and screw zone for a lot of us. A weird look. Agreed. As much as I've favored the GFS this particular winter, it has not been consistent from run to run with regard to this weekend's setup. With that in mind, I think we're still a few runs away from confident with regard to what happens in our neck of the woods. I think at this point the disjointed solutions are less and less likely since I think the last model that showed one was 06z yesterday... now it becomes more a question of when does it phase, and how does the precip set up on a large scale to determine who gets what (CCB, dry slot, deformation, etc.). The realist in me would like to disregard the Euro because of how dreamy it is for my backyard, but it has been incredibly consistent from run to run. At least we have a cold H in SE Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is a lot slower this run then 06z It's finally coming around. Much stronger in both streams should yield an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 If that's the case, that would lead towards the Euro solution for timing. Yeah, That northern s/w is pretty stout and slower then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's finally coming around. Much stronger in both streams should yield an interesting run. Yes, This is probably going to be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like the nam is catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GFS could be handling it fine..it's possible with hge VVs with the CCB and the subsidence zone west until you hit the deformation zone. See Boxing day 2010. I really don't know, other than to point to the fact that we have several issues to work out..but many are fixated on snow amounts I guess. Yeah hopefully as we go through today and tomorrow it starts becoming clearer how factors other than qpf play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It looks like it's going to be one of those Nam runs that prints out 3 - 3.5 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Among the many issues left to work out. I was waiting for someone to utter that ugly word. I take it the euro has no such thing? Not at all..partially because it was further SE than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes, This is probably going to be a big hit How many more big hits needed before we up the snowfall amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 How many more big hits needed before we up the snowfall amounts? Like 3 more model suites.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nam is going to be awesome this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 nam is going to be awesome this run Norther s/w was down to 1012 mb this run from 1016 mb @ 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nam is going to be awesome this run Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is it? what is up with you this morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what is up with you this morning lol He's being rational. Don't you just hate that? NAM could come in pretty warm for some, the way it looks so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yes or a hell of alot better then 6z however you want to look at it Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what is up with you this morning lol Kids man! lol I agree with you. The NAM looks good. Let that sink in for a second then remember it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kids man! lol I agree with you. The NAM looks good. Let that sink in for a second then remember it is the NAM. Right, but it's not just the NAM that has looked good. Everything else has and now the NAM is catching on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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