wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Two issues which are one coastal involvement and two northern stream system. Sounds like we both agree that the coastal is likely going to be predominantly a miss when we look at the region as a whole. But the northern system should lay down a respectable blanket of white. I may be totally wrong on the coastal but I see it se of the BM in this pattern....18z gfs 12z ggem compromise Is it true that the seasonal tendency has been to over-estimate strength of northern stream systems? I remember that 12/30/12 was clearly an underestimated northern stream system and failed digging correctly, and so the more amplified/closer to coast solution unfolded even within 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Till the Euro (if) holds serve just use the tools and keep realistic. Have seen the high end potentail. So reality dictates something 1/2 of outrageous 3-4" QPF totals. As is expect the biggest storm in two years that to itself is weenie heaven. Adrenaline kicked in today for the first time in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I actually don't hate the look of the srefs. I think they are pretty reasonable right now considering they are based off the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wxniss generally I would say yes. Doesn't mean that's what is happening now. Like I said I hope I'm totally wrong and we are about to see something historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol @ the ARW control member of the SREFs... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol @ the ARW control member of the SREFs... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html That's a heavy hitter basically from NYC to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I remember 2 or 3 days before the big ice storm, seeing the NAM printing out 2" of accretion potential, and my buddy and I were going, no way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I remember 2 or 3 days before the big ice storm, seeing the NAM printing out 2" of accretion potential, and my buddy and I were going, no way... It's always reasonable to deem unprecedented solutions illogical outliers and nothing more. The 00z suite would have to look like the 12z Euro from today for the likes of such an event to realistically be on the table. Otherwise... something less is simply more reasonable and likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can it be determined what the snow to liquid ratio might be in the MetroWest area this early? Are we to expect a heavy snow or more fluff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z nam looks slower up north and more robust down south so far.........if I can read the NCEP graphics right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's always reasonable to deem unprecedented solutions illogical outliers and nothing more. The 00z suite would have to look like the 12z Euro from today for the likes of such an event to realistically be on the table. Otherwise... something less is simply more reasonable and likely.October 2011 was looking illogical and unrealistic for a while...just sayingI should set my alarm for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am thinking 6-12 region wide. No one should be disappointed if that verifies. We'd have paid big dough for this a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can it be determined what the snow to liquid ratio might be in the MetroWest area this early? Are we to expect a heavy snow or more fluff? way to early to discuss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Noyes' new map. Seems somewhat reasonable. That map seems very reasonable at this point. And hi neighbor. I am in Woonsocket, by the Lowes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z nam looks slower up north and more robust down south so far.........if I can read the NCEP graphics right. Looks a little better with the northern s/w as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 October 2011 was looking illogical and unrealistic for a while...just saying I should set my alarm for the Euro The incredibly rare exception is not, in my opinion, a sufficient reason to buck the general application of the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Northern stream shortwave much slower and more robust and southern stream more robust versus 18z NAM...not a huge surprise since the 18z NAM was zero phase, so it would have been surprising if it came in just as flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 21z SREF's FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The faithful will be rewarded. Should be a decent warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is a good deal slower with the Nrn Stream compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is a good deal slower with the Nrn Stream compared to 18z What would that mean in terms of QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What would that mean in terms of QPF? Not out far enough yet...this is in terms of 500mb vorticity (essentially spin in the atmosphere). The slower the northern stream, the better chance it phases with the southern stream, as opposed to scooting out ahead and not phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The incredibly rare exception is not, in my opinion, a sufficient reason to buck the general application of the rule. Absolutely agree with you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not out far enough yet...this is in terms of 500mb vorticity (essentially spin in the atmosphere). The slower the northern stream, the better chance it phases with the southern stream, as opposed to scooting out ahead and not phasing. Northern s/w is more robust then 18z, This should be a better run then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just hope the Northern stream isn't late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam slider? Rookie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Northern s/w is more robust then 18z, This should be a better run then 18z Doesn't mean much since 18z was a complete sh*t show, haha. Not taking the NAM at 66h too seriously anyways, even if its a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The srefs men of >1 inch is further west vs 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Comparing position of NAM to this morning Euro through 48, position of northern and southern stream shortwaves is rather similar..........maybe just a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Doesn't mean much since 18z was a complete sh*t show, haha. Not taking the NAM at 66h too seriously anyways, even if its a bomb. Means little other then its still out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.