SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am a map sucking up fool I remember back in 2010 when we had maps like this and then the totals kept getting up as the storm got closer. I can see that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Verbatim BOS is rain to start on the gfs. Problem 1. It also does funky things like I mentioned last night. Most of the area gets subsidence west of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs now have 2" 24h QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Verbatim BOS is rain to start on the gfs. Problem 1. It also does funky things like I mentioned last night. Most of the area gets subsidence west of the CCB. you are only going by the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow+to+water+ratio+chart.jpg Go ahead and call me a weenie. But this is the first real snow storm where I have not lived in Brockton and have the possibility of ratios better than 10 or 12 to 1. At the height of the storm many of us outside of 128 are sitting with forecasted temperatures in the low 20s (if not upper teens). Which makes way for ratios much greater than 10 to 1. This is what I am excited about. Give me half the Euro's output (on second thought; I'll take all of it) with temps in the low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 you are only going by the GFS? No I was commenting on what it shows. Its possible it may be too warm, but it should not be ignored. Coastal people should think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here's Alb's map. Seems a little ballsy this early. I'm still not sold on a big hit here in ENY. I'm thinking 4-8" with room to increase. At first it looked like we'd get most of our snow from the primary and then inverted trough. Now it looks like coastal. Hopefully we don't get caught in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am a map sucking up fool Wow 6-8 for Tan to Plymouth seem kind of low. Is that based off the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Watches give me a lot of confidence for 8+, which would be great this year. Surprised to see them go up so early....I would've expected after 12Z came out. We have an insurance policy for the northern stream and later phase possibilities up north. Need a foot though to snowmobile, so that is the real goal here. Does anyone remember such a huge storm projected but with such high risk due to the pattern? I remember March 93 as a high confidence storm/ great setup from a week out. Jan 96 was the perfect set up for Philly from almost a week and the issue was whether it would be 10-15 inches or 2'+. This one feels like it is on a knife's edge and it could slip east unphased with only high end advisory amounts. March 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @TollandKev: @JoeDawg42 Lets get watches flying I in all of SNE. Very confusing to the public and media this morning @JoeDawg42: @TollandKev agree When the right folks are on at box good things happen. We knew when we saw who issued the watches what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This was probably asked earlier but why does BOX not have the watches extended further South over CT/RI. Is it low confidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 March 2001? March 01 was already falling off the rails by this range, not entirely but the trend was heavily underway inside 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow 6-8 for Tan to Plymouth seem kind of low. Is that based off the GFS? Could easily happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those srefs up the ante. Something big is coming for those that are predominantly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah but on the SREFs you're still looking at 1-1.5 inch spread. That could make a huge difference when translating to snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those srefs up the ante. Something big is coming for those that are predominantly snow... most impressive on the probs for you http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This was probably asked earlier but why does BOX not have the watches extended further South over CT/RI. Is it low confidence?See my post above for Tweet exchange with Joe D head of Box region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 watches are up AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well have to say first time in two years I have looked at all my major storm bookmarks. One common theme from CT River East is a Beast, West is still a great storm minus the big winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 See my post above for Tweet exchange with Joe D head of Box region Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow Srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seriously WhoTF cares about watches this morning I mean its Wed. So silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm focusing on coastal locations, but it does get cold in the middle to latter end of this system where it'll definitely flip. I mis-worded my prior statement. I am also wishcasting for KOWD to get rain. Your sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who cares. Posted the same thing, how anal. public is aware believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Phasing is key. March 01 phased too late. All of mass was shut down for day 1 for mostly rain. Once it snowed it snowed quite nicely particularly inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Posted the same thing, how anal. public is aware believe me. Tolland has to be the center of attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL and the weenies have CRASHED the NCEP model page!!! Back up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Phasing is key. March 01 phased too late. All of mass was shut down for day 1 for mostly rain. Once it snowed it snowed quite nicely particularly inland. much colder antecedant day this time and much colder high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Our two players with this system are now over the North American Continent. The southern piece of energy is the rather impressive looking stuff over Texas. The northern piece is located near Northern Idaho and is just getting over the top of the Rockies now. This mornings runs should be telling as both players should be sampled better now that they are over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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