dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I can see this slipping further southeast. Plenty of caution flags, Lot less margin for error up here, I do like the 06z GFS though as it keeps the low more progressive and on a NE plain rather then ENE like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Come to sne. This is where it's happening the best I think although parts of the NYC area may do quite well. The NYC forum is going bonkers over the EURO, it's warning snow for the city on it. If you're going to travel though go to BOS area, we are going to get a nice storm, they are going to get crushed. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think, in general, numbers are being tossed out way too early. I agree. It's better to say this storm has potential of x"-y", but there still is a lot to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I agree. It's better to say this storm has potential of x"-y", but there still is a lot to be determined. I don't even know if that's even worth it. I'd probably say something like "it looks like this could be a really big storm with at least 6" and possibly much more if things come together right" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NYC forum is going bonkers over the EURO, it's warning snow for the city on it. If you're going to travel though go to BOS area, we are going to get a nice storm, they are going to get crushed. -skisheep 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-2' For NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Banking on 1 models output to base this on right now is not very smart on the medias part, Could be stting themselves up for failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-2' Yes. For NYC? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Plenty of caution flags, Lot less margin for error up here I fear that too... Mets, is there anything stopping this from trending south? The euro went a little south, and the nogaps is a whiff. Am I just being paranoid? ...seasonal trends are tough to break, will this one be no different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't even know if that's even worth it. I'd probably say something like "it looks like this could be a really big storm with at least 6" and possibly much more if things come together right" Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but there are a few things I don't like for huge amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm looking at soundings for E MA and I think there is just as good of a chance this can start as predominately rain, or at least for the first half of this event. Depends on where you look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't even know if that's even worth it. I'd probably say something like "it looks like this could be a really big storm with at least 6" and possibly much more if things come together right" I agree. Harvey last night went "6-12+" while his less experienced counterpart on channel 7 went 1 foot+. Much easier for Harvey to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I fear that too... Mets, is there anything stopping this from trending south? The euro went a little south, and the nogaps is a whiff. Am I just being paranoid? ...seasonal trends are tough to break, will this one be no different? I think the Euro dug the northern stream a little to far south which allowed the phase earlier so placed the qpf max further south, Its the only model that has done that, That northern s/w can only go so far south in this progression so it may make some more adjustments as we go along here, These subtle shifts are going to have large ramifications on qpf in some areas that are on the outer goal post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm looking at soundings for E MA and I think there is just as good of a chance this can flip to predominately rain, or at least for half of this event. Depends on where you look. 6z gfs? Which locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I fear that too... Mets, is there anything stopping this from trending south? The euro went a little south, and the nogaps is a whiff. Am I just being paranoid? ...seasonal trends are tough to break, will this one be no different? if this were 24 hours out I'd be more excited. Whiff east not completely off the table for W NE. 12z runs should be telling of possible E trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm looking at soundings for E MA and I think there is just as good of a chance this can flip to predominately rain, or at least for half of this event. Depends on where you look. BOX mentioned rain in their P&C for my part of Boston. I'm assuming this is based on the GFS soundings, cause Euro looked plenty cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think, in general, numbers are being tossed out way too early. Agree my phone is ringing already from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but there are a few things I don't like for huge amounts. If the storm takes phases/cuts off 6-8 hours later it's a totally different beast. There's a lot to be determined here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but there are a few things I don't like for huge amounts. Never mind that the amounts being tossed around like gospel are at the upper end of records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-2' Holy $%^& it's that much even for the city??? Yikes now i'm getting intrested for real now, the fact that the EURO found this 4 days ago and hasn't lost it is making me very excited... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey guys last night JB riding the euro like a rented mule 1-2 ft nyc to boston right or wrong his train of thought is power system climatology and the date if you believe in karma same day as the lindsay storm .Plenty of cold air on tap system winds up pulls in -5 air lights out disruptive storm is an understatement.peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The gfs is mild for the first half. Not sure all rain, but a wet snow or mix would happen probably if it were correct. Euro can be too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 In some zones nw of Bos the forecast (Framingham and Lowell) says rain and snow Friday and Friday night. That seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Never mind that the amounts being tossed around like gospel are at the upper end of records. That there is fool hardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If the storm takes phases/cuts off 6-8 hours later it's a totally different beast. There's a lot to be determined here. March 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think, in general, numbers are being tossed out way too early. Yeah, no need to go hog-wild still. 4pm package today should really start to ramp up. 12z runs today should start narrowing down whether this scoots off east, does not phase perfectly or at all, or comes in with an all out blizzard. I'm beginning to lean towards the big dog scenario given the Euro's persistence over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BOX mentioned rain in their P&C for my part of Boston. I'm assuming this is based on the GFS soundings, cause Euro looked plenty cold to me. Yup. I'm still looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You sound like me now, mike.. Always concerned for tgatand box did toss thatflag. Not as a whiff fir here but a sig downward shift on impact. Heading back from CID this afternoon. Hope I can sneak peeks at the 12z run during my meetings. They'll be much mire entertaining. I fear that too... Mets, is there anything stopping this from trending south? The euro went a little south, and the nogaps is a whiff. Am I just being paranoid? ...seasonal trends are tough to break, will this one be no different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 March 01 What a miserable bust that was. From 2-3 feet to several inches and tons of sleet. That OKX map looks a lot more conservative compared to what NYC stations are throwing out there. One of them, won't mention any names, put up the RPM snow map this morning that had 29 inches for NYC. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we won't get close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I agree. Harvey last night went "6-12+" while his less experienced counterpart on channel 7 went 1 foot+. Much easier for Harvey to verify. The problem, as always, is that once those epic amounts are out there people tend to latch onto them and don't pay attention to all the caveats and qualifiers. It's like the old Far Side cartoon about what dogs hear when we talk to them: "Blah blah blah blah FOOD blah blah blah blah WALK...." The winter storm speculation version is "Blah blah blah 1-2 FEET blah blah blah POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS blah blah...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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