moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Box throws the caution flag at gc about eastward shift possibility as possible kbash on things here. Nit sure why, but I don't think we'll see as much movement as we typically see this far out. Certainly don't expect any thing drastic in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Box throws the caution flag at gc about eastward shift possibility as possible kbash on things here. Nit sure why, but I don't think we'll see as much movement as we typically see this far out. Certainly don't expect any thing drastic in any case. It could come a little more NW...the GFS did so last night. I think the large QPF amounts could be the real deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sometimes in like an ice event or something it's warranted..but this isn't marginal..This is a 12 inch+ snowstorm for all of SNE.. It makes them look very silly lol. Love the spirit, man. Not to sound like that guy, but the past few days have had that feel like something big is coming. Light snows, and crisp cold a few days prior to a much larger coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well see what my dad says about driving home if totals hold at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Cause bottom line i may be 21 buti don't have my own place at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well see what my dad says about driving home if totals hold at 12z That's my boy! Good move. Will there be taint at the height? Not per euro bit always a concern. A foot or more is growing in likelihood. Is this similar to the December 2003 setup and event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Box throws the caution flag at gc about eastward shift possibility as possible kbash on things here. Nit sure why, but I don't think we'll see as much movement as we typically see this far out. Certainly don't expect any thing drastic in any case. Quick....someone put put the mpm qpf worry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Blizzard of 78 dropped 27" on Boston - is there any chance we hit that amount this go around? It was exceeded feb 2003 but amounts don't tell the whoe story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That's my boy! Good move. Will there be taint at the height? Not per euro bit always a concern. A foot or more is growing in likelihood. Is this similar to the December 2003 setup and event? Is there a link that will provide what past snowfall was for Dec 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is there a link that will provide what past snowfall was for Dec 2003? BOS recorded 16.9 but most feel that was a bad measurement as most of the city and nearby had 20-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There's still room for caution, that's for sure. I'm holding off on calling for higher amounts until later today but there's no reason you can't throw up a watch to alert folks. Having grown up here this happens all the time. The border becomes a natural place to draw the line. I'm used to being second rate and an after thought. Well I'm glad they used the border. If we had a watch for just 3 counties in CT it would have been useless to show from a media perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Quick....someone put put the mpm qpf worry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BOS recorded 16.9 but most feel that was a bad measurement as most of the city and nearby had 20-30. I was looking at pictures from the 78 Blizzard - how in the world did cars get trapped on 128? I highly doubt that would ever happen today. Looks like 6 inches was initially forecasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Holy Cow... Joe Fury on Fox Hartford showed a snowfall map. I'm in shock... 26.3 inches from Waterbury down to south Central CT... right where I live in North Madison was the bullseye! Now I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 03 and 05 storms key example in what jerry says about totals not telling whole story. I barely remember 03 while 05 is very clear in my mind. 05 was sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I was looking at pictures from the 78 Blizzard - how in the world did cars get trapped on 128? I highly doubt that would ever happen today. Looks like 6 inches was initially forecasted... Heavy snow and blowing combined with unexpected severity. One car gets such and its like a domino effect with backup. Plows can't get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any chance of mixing on the coast, just south of Boston. That's my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well I'm glad they used the border. If we had a watch for just 3 counties in CT it would have been useless to show from a media perspective. Bob sure didn't like it this morning. The bulk of the storm is still a 5th/6th period deal, so I was kind of surprised anyone had a watch for it this early. I figured they wouldn't fly until this afternoon's package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I could always set up somewhere on Jersey or NYC too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bob sure didn't like it this morning. The bulk of the storm is still a 5th/6th period deal, so I was kind of surprised anyone had a watch for it this early. I figured they wouldn't fly until this afternoon's package. WeatherMA got the call right though I think - he thought they would be issued with the 4AM package... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 GYX map StormTotalSnowFcst.png Decent prelim map, lol, Sref plumes mean 19.12" ,1 member over 47" couple in the 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Decent prelim map I can see this slipping further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bob sure didn't like it this morning. The bulk of the storm is still a 5th/6th period deal, so I was kind of surprised anyone had a watch for it this early. I figured they wouldn't fly until this afternoon's package. Well you can totally ignore an out of state/market watch. If it was in-market I probably would have ignored it as well if it only included a couple counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WeatherMA got the call right though I think - he thought they would be issued with the 4AM package... I think they can go as early as 5th period, so it's not unheard of. Across Connecticut we will have to deal with taint whether that's sleet or just plain rain, so I'm not surprised there are no watches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Heavy snow and blowing combined with unexpected severity. One car gets such and its like a domino effect with backup. Plows can't get through. Recall what happened in Chicago a couple/few years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think they can go as early as 5th period, so it's not unheard of. Across coastal Connecticut we will have to deal with taint whether that's sleet or just plain rain, so I'm not surprised there are no watches here. fyp, it's coming. I like a general 12-18 E of the CT River with a jackpot of 20-22" somewhere in a ORH-BOS-TAN triangle. Maybe 8-12 out toward home in NW CT and 10-14" in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I could always set up somewhere on Jersey or NYC too Come to sne. This is where it's happening the best I think although parts of the NYC area may do quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think, in general, numbers are being tossed out way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Watches give me a lot of confidence for 8+, which would be great this year. Surprised to see them go up so early....I would've expected after 12Z came out. We have an insurance policy for the northern stream and later phase possibilities up north. Need a foot though to snowmobile, so that is the real goal here. Does anyone remember such a huge storm projected but with such high risk due to the pattern? I remember March 93 as a high confidence storm/ great setup from a week out. Jan 96 was the perfect set up for Philly from almost a week and the issue was whether it would be 10-15 inches or 2'+. This one feels like it is on a knife's edge and it could slip east unphased with only high end advisory amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Excited to see albany's afd throwing 10-14 in their watch areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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