CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think? He says top 5? I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it. Top 5 has a very low chance of happening. I agree with your doubts on the nrn stream too on the euro. There is something about this that I don't like for prolific totals... Well several things. When I mean prolific I mean totals nearing top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Top 5 has a very low chance of happening. I agree with your doubts on the nrn stream too on the euro. There is something about this that I don't like for prolific totals... Well several things. When I mean prolific I mean totals nearing top 10. Top 10 is pretty beefy too for BOS....they may only have 6 for 20"+...but they are pretty stingy when it comes to top 10 (11 actually with ties)...BOS has some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think? He says top 5? For BOS, the top 10 are: 1. Feb 17-18, 2003.......27.5" 2. Feb 6-7, 1978...........27.1" 3. Feb 24-27, 1969.......26.4" 4. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...25.4" 5. Jan 22-23, 2005........22.3" 6. Jan 20-21, 1978........21.4" 7. Mar 3, 1960..............19.6" 8. Mar 16-17, 1958.......19.4" 9. Feb 8-11, 1994.........18.7" 10. Jan 7-8, 1996..........18.2" 10. Dec 20-21, 1975.....18.2" (tie with 1996) I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it. How many on that list did not have a good blocking pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Outside the Euro looks like a lot of rain down here........good luck to the northeast guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are a thing of beauty which does give me pause. It's a progressive pattern but one that has weak ridging movin into Hudson bay with a jet above the closing H5 trough which helps allow it to slow a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 love seeing this!! Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GYX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 B b b bomb. I'm guessing media behins it's 78 reborn wall to wall coverage soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 N CT gets as much qpf as ORH and yet there's no warning for the public at all. They look at that map and think oh..all the heavy snow will be north of us..not big deal..Meanwhile the euro and it's ens buries all of SNE to Se Mass. The snow starts in CT tomorrow night too. Just odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looked to have almost all of NE over .5" qpf. Obviously much more for some in SNE. Big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wish it was happening earlier...heavy heavy early dismissals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 how does 6z GEFS look? not loading on huffman's page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Options BOOM 2 feet plus from CT on East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 how does 6z GEFS look? not loading on huffman's page... Solid hit for all. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 with this forecast, even light sn friday morn will result in cancel. Wish it was happening earlier...heavy heavy early dismissals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No BOX map yet...gunshy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 N CT gets as much qpf as ORH and yet there's no warning for the public at all. They look at that map and think oh..all the heavy snow will be north of us..not big deal..Meanwhile the euro and it's ens buries all of SNE to Se Mass. The snow starts in CT tomorrow night too. Just odd The weather stops at the border, don't you know that? This happens all the time. Every time there's a marginal situation it's a different story just a few miles north of here. It's like the northern tier of Tolland county is forgotten. Nice to see the trend continued overnight. I wish the timing was better and it could start later on Friday but I'll take what I can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Matt Noyes has a map up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Same map as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The weather stops at the border, don't you know that? This happens all the time. Every time there's a marginal situation it's a different story just a few miles north of here. It's like the northern tier of Tolland county is forgotten. Nice to see the trend continued overnight. I wish the timing was better and it could start later on Friday but I'll take what I can get! Sometimes in like an ice event or something it's warranted..but this isn't marginal..This is a 12 inch+ snowstorm for all of SNE.. It makes them look very silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If anything the heaviest snow threat shifted south overnight and now even includes NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol.....Kevin gets upset if there's not a watch 48+ hours out. Euro .....euro...euro. I doubted it when it first showed the solution but this consistency reminds me of the prisoners it took in January 2005. Glad I bought a first class ticket.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How is it looking for Cape Cod, MA? Hurricane force wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Optimism pretty high for warning criteria in gc after last night and this morning's runs. I kinds like the 06 gfs in an odd way..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches not needed BOX Joe Furey @StormFurey Hello!!!Latest RPM shows 14-26 inches of SNOW across CT.....EURO Ensemble just came in with 2.5 inches of LIQUID across CT...WOW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Woke up to the EURO telling me that i'm basically all snow with 12"+ and upton mentioning blizzard conditions for friday night. Woah! GFS keeps coming closer to the EURO, and even GFS verbatim I think is advisory snow for me on the backend, correct? Going to have to keep a very close eye on this, if 12z euro holds serve, I wouldn't be suprised to have upton post watches for NYC. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 N CT gets as much qpf as ORH and yet there's no warning for the public at all. They look at that map and think oh..all the heavy snow will be north of us..not big deal..Meanwhile the euro and it's ens buries all of SNE to Se Mass. The snow starts in CT tomorrow night too. Just odd Watch/Warning fetish meltdowns are one of my favorite parts of pre-storm discussion. Don't worry -- this will be amply hyped and the public won't be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Watches not needed BOX Joe Furey @StormFurey Hello!!!Latest RPM shows 14-26 inches of SNOW across CT.....EURO Ensemble just came in with 2.5 inches of LIQUID across CT...WOW!! LOL...what's the big deal right now? You know you will eventually be in one. You are bothered by the fact that Tolland, CT wasn't the first watch issued huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If anyone has AccuWeather PPV models, you should take a look at the 00z ECM EPS Control. Basically 1-3 feet from CNJ to BOS with very strong winds. Absolutely amazing system being portrayed and would probably stop a few hearts on here. Whats interesting is that the ECMWF OP has been slightly adjusting to it over the past 24 hours. Could be some fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sometimes in like an ice event or something it's warranted..but this isn't marginal..This is a 12 inch+ snowstorm for all of SNE.. It makes them look very silly There's still room for caution, that's for sure. I'm holding off on calling for higher amounts until later today but there's no reason you can't throw up a watch to alert folks. Having grown up here this happens all the time. The border becomes a natural place to draw the line. I'm used to being second rate and an after thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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