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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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CTSkywarn

CTSkywarn

Posted
Posted

As exciting as the Euro is, reality has to set in that this is the Winter of 2012 to 2013, where the biggests storms has been a dusts to 2 inches!  So, the rule of thumb should be to go with the model showing the least amount of snow.  So, I say for this one, NAM all the way.  Solid adivisory event for the entire area.  Rain/snow at the coast with 2 to 5 inches total and Boston to NE Mass 4 to 6 inches of total snow.  Berks will do the best with possible low end warning.  

 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

As exciting as the Euro is, reality has to set in that this is the Winter of 2012 to 2013, where the biggests storms has been a dusts to 2 inches!  So, the rule of thumb should be to go with the model showing the least amount of snow.  So, I say for this one, NAM all the way.  Solid adivisory event for the entire area.  Rain/snow at the coast with 2 to 5 inches total and Boston to NE Mass 4 to 6 inches of total snow.  Berks will do the best with possible low end warning.  

 

You would go with the 00z NOGAPS if you wanted the model with the least snow...almost a total whiff...just some light snow...maybe 1".

 

NAM doesn't give as low as you are describing.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

As exciting as the Euro is, reality has to set in that this is the Winter of 2012 to 2013, where the biggests storms has been a dusts to 2 inches! So, the rule of thumb should be to go with the model showing the least amount of snow.

I recall at least two 6-12 events for CT this season...
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

We arent there though (some posters here are, but the majority aren't)....there's always a spot where you are on the line at this time range...even 24h out. In SNE, we aren't on that line right now. All guidance gives a widespread warning event except the nogaps. Most give higher than just a mundane warning event.

I have been preaching conservative forecasting as much as anyone during this, but I'm just pointing out the model forecast differences between this setup and past setups. We haven't had anything close to this type of consensus on a large event this close in the entire winter, so that would lead to a lot more confidence than usual.

Will fully understood and I agree on the consensus. My only thing is one more run because whether I agree in totality or not with the raob/pacific crowd there does seem to be a tendency towards adjustments and the critical impulse just came ashore an hour or two ago and is in itself a complex little system.

One more point on if it broke to 4-8. The nam seems to always have been up there with qpf purely from the northern stream. If this ended up mainly seaward one could argue it did well here even though it missed the coastal. Academic discussion only not an endorsement or forecast.

Asleep at 8 shaking off cold now up for good ugh.

If it looks the same after this morning run....i disagree that PW could handle this type of impact. No knock on them but the models have a tremendous amount falling in small periods. Be very hard to keep up and once they get behind its a 2005 plowing cars situation. We will see what Wednesday brings

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Will fully understood and I agree on the consensus. My only thing is one more run because whether I agree in totality or not with the raob/pacific crowd there does seem to be a tendency towards adjustments and the critical impulse just came ashore an hour or two ago and is in itself a complex little system.

One more point on if it broke to 4-8. The nam seems to always have been up there with qpf purely from the northern stream. If this ended up mainly seaward one could argue it did well here even though it missed the coastal. Academic discussion only not an endorsement or forecast.

Asleep at 8 shaking off cold now up for good ugh.

If it looks the same after this morning run....i disagree that PW could handle this type of impact. No knock on them but the models have a tremendous amount falling in small periods. Be very hard to keep up and once they get behind its a 2005 plowing cars situation. We will see what Wednesday brings

 

 

I agree on caution still....just think the threat has grown more than you portray, but perhaps just semantics.

 

 

Agree on the latter closing sentence. No way any DPW can keep up with what would transpire should the more agressive solutions verify. We saw what happened on Dec 13, 2007....heavy rates cause chaos. The only saving grace is the brunt would occur overnight Friday into Saturday which would limit the traffic impact.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

HPC is skeptical of the speed and magnitude of the northern stream solution on the ECMWF too....I agree with them...we'll see tomorrow though. They are going with the faster solutions too which is what I would do given the upper level pattern.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This would warrant blizzard headlines should a euro like solution verify? I haven't looked close enough at wind, just curious.

 

 

They wont go Blizzard Watch unless the GFS/Euro solutions keep coming up in the next 2 runs I don't think. Blizzard Watch is pretty rare. Warning more common.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I agree on caution still....just think the threat has grown more than you portray, but perhaps just semantics.

Agree on the latter closing sentence. No way any DPW can keep up with what would transpire should the more agressive solutions verify. We saw what happened on Dec 13, 2007....heavy rates cause chaos. The only saving grace is the brunt would occur overnight Friday into Saturday which would limit the traffic impact.

Will it is semantics. The threat is about as large as it can get at this range. I am just a smidge more skeptical simply based on the seasonal outcomes so far. We are still relying on models nailing the northern stream interaction and I'm not ready to make that total leap yet based on performances to date. If after the 12z run we still have this type of consensus for a storm of this magnitude....

We also had the event in the late 90s or early 2000s where OES bands in advance of a system shut down the se expressway. Drop enough snow in a short period and nothing can keep up.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

EC ens run 1.00" from about BHB-LCI-AQW. 1.50" runs from PSM-ORH-HVN. Still a chance for some good deformation snows up here, but I don't want this closing off anymore south.

SREF plumes are the lol. There's 4 over 30" for CON and 2 over 40". Garbage, but funny to look at.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

EC ens run 1.00" from about BHB-LCI-AQW. 1.50" runs from PSM-ORH-HVN. Still a chance for some good deformation snows up here, but I don't want this closing off anymore south.

SREF plumes are the lol. There's 4 over 30" for CON and 2 over 40". Garbage, but funny to look at.

 

 

20" for ORH, 7" for dendrite...you are due to watch a couple of these.

 

 

In reality, you'll get your 15" of pure fluff from 0.7" of qpf.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

HPC is skeptical of the speed and magnitude of the northern stream solution on the ECMWF too....I agree with them...we'll see tomorrow though. They are going with the faster solutions too which is what I would do given the upper level pattern.

Congrats on the 51.6".

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

If my flight back to MHT gets cancelled for any reason Thu night I can probably kiss goodbye seeing this storm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Congrats on the 51.6".

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

If my flight back to MHT gets cancelled for any reason Thu night I can probably kiss goodbye seeing this storm.

 

 

 

We will be searching for you from wherever your flight originates if it gets cancelled. With scissors to cut the noose off....we're a good crew.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Yeah good idea not to get word out in southern zones

 

 

*** ALERT *** ALERT ** 0Z WED EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS NEW ENGLAND HISTORIC SNOW STORM ON TRACK ... NO CHANGES ... BURIES CT ( even coastal areas) EASTERN MASS 18-24" OF SNOW or more ...

woof woof woof woof 

THIS SNOWSTORM HAS BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF PLACING IN TOP 5 SNOWSTORMS OF ALL TIME IN EASTERN MASS / BOSTON looks like feb 1978... 
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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Kevin is going to be pissed that he isn't in the watch. LOL. BOX issued it for only MA and NH zones...though that is a smart move if the phase doesn't happen, since CT/RI would have more trouble in that scenario.

 

Comment from OKX lol, ironic given watches put up farther downstream:

"Since this is a 5th/6th period event...will hold off on issuing winter storm watches...but will highlight in the severe weather potential statement. "

 

Truth is every model except Nogaps brings warning potential to MA/NH, including 6z Nam which keeps streams separate and has enough northern energy for MA/NH but not CT/RI

 

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Will it is semantics. The threat is about as large as it can get at this range. I am just a smidge more skeptical simply based on the seasonal outcomes so far. We are still relying on models nailing the northern stream interaction and I'm not ready to make that total leap yet based on performances to date. If after the 12z run we still have this type of consensus for a storm of this magnitude....

We also had the event in the late 90s or early 2000s where OES bands in advance of a system shut down the se expressway. Drop enough snow in a short period and nothing can keep up.

I agree with you, some level of caution is needed in this setup. If anything the southern stream anomaly and its associated diabatic low, at least to me, is just as big if not  a bigger variable than the northern stream timing. Quite a bit can go wrong with that feature, and a large amount of the model differences can be blamed on convective params between the models and how they simulate the development of the low.

 

If that low tightens up too much, northward advection is shunted substantially. if moist convection fires along/ahead of the upper anomaly...the low will tend to track a bit farther east. That said, the potential is pretty impressive.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

DT is a weenie.

 

 

What do you think? He says top 5?

 

 

 

For BOS, the top 10 are:

 

1. Feb 17-18, 2003.......27.5"

2. Feb 6-7, 1978...........27.1"

3. Feb 24-27, 1969.......26.4"

4. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...25.4"

5. Jan 22-23, 2005........22.3"

6. Jan 20-21, 1978........21.4"

7. Mar 3, 1960..............19.6"

8. Mar 16-17, 1958.......19.4"

9. Feb 8-11, 1994.........18.7"

10. Jan 7-8, 1996..........18.2"

10. Dec 20-21, 1975.....18.2" (tie with 1996)

 

I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it.

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