Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We arent there though (some posters here are, but the majority aren't)....there's always a spot where you are on the line at this time range...even 24h out. In SNE, we aren't on that line right now. All guidance gives a widespread warning event except the nogaps. Most give higher than just a mundane warning event. I have been preaching conservative forecasting as much as anyone during this, but I'm just pointing out the model forecast differences between this setup and past setups. We haven't had anything close to this type of consensus on a large event this close in the entire winter, so that would lead to a lot more confidence than usual. Will fully understood and I agree on the consensus. My only thing is one more run because whether I agree in totality or not with the raob/pacific crowd there does seem to be a tendency towards adjustments and the critical impulse just came ashore an hour or two ago and is in itself a complex little system. One more point on if it broke to 4-8. The nam seems to always have been up there with qpf purely from the northern stream. If this ended up mainly seaward one could argue it did well here even though it missed the coastal. Academic discussion only not an endorsement or forecast. Asleep at 8 shaking off cold now up for good ugh. If it looks the same after this morning run....i disagree that PW could handle this type of impact. No knock on them but the models have a tremendous amount falling in small periods. Be very hard to keep up and once they get behind its a 2005 plowing cars situation. We will see what Wednesday brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will fully understood and I agree on the consensus. My only thing is one more run because whether I agree in totality or not with the raob/pacific crowd there does seem to be a tendency towards adjustments and the critical impulse just came ashore an hour or two ago and is in itself a complex little system. One more point on if it broke to 4-8. The nam seems to always have been up there with qpf purely from the northern stream. If this ended up mainly seaward one could argue it did well here even though it missed the coastal. Academic discussion only not an endorsement or forecast. Asleep at 8 shaking off cold now up for good ugh. If it looks the same after this morning run....i disagree that PW could handle this type of impact. No knock on them but the models have a tremendous amount falling in small periods. Be very hard to keep up and once they get behind its a 2005 plowing cars situation. We will see what Wednesday brings I agree on caution still....just think the threat has grown more than you portray, but perhaps just semantics. Agree on the latter closing sentence. No way any DPW can keep up with what would transpire should the more agressive solutions verify. We saw what happened on Dec 13, 2007....heavy rates cause chaos. The only saving grace is the brunt would occur overnight Friday into Saturday which would limit the traffic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 HPC is skeptical of the speed and magnitude of the northern stream solution on the ECMWF too....I agree with them...we'll see tomorrow though. They are going with the faster solutions too which is what I would do given the upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 watches are up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 watches are upWas just about to mention this. It's going to be a long, but exciting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 watches are up This would warrant blizzard headlines should a euro like solution verify? I haven't looked close enough at wind, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This would warrant blizzard headlines should a euro like solution verify? I haven't looked close enough at wind, just curious. They wont go Blizzard Watch unless the GFS/Euro solutions keep coming up in the next 2 runs I don't think. Blizzard Watch is pretty rare. Warning more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I agree on caution still....just think the threat has grown more than you portray, but perhaps just semantics. Agree on the latter closing sentence. No way any DPW can keep up with what would transpire should the more agressive solutions verify. We saw what happened on Dec 13, 2007....heavy rates cause chaos. The only saving grace is the brunt would occur overnight Friday into Saturday which would limit the traffic impact. Will it is semantics. The threat is about as large as it can get at this range. I am just a smidge more skeptical simply based on the seasonal outcomes so far. We are still relying on models nailing the northern stream interaction and I'm not ready to make that total leap yet based on performances to date. If after the 12z run we still have this type of consensus for a storm of this magnitude.... We also had the event in the late 90s or early 2000s where OES bands in advance of a system shut down the se expressway. Drop enough snow in a short period and nothing can keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kevin is going to be pissed that he isn't in the watch. LOL. BOX issued it for only MA and NH zones...though that is a smart move if the phase doesn't happen, since CT/RI would have more trouble in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC ens run 1.00" from about BHB-LCI-AQW. 1.50" runs from PSM-ORH-HVN. Still a chance for some good deformation snows up here, but I don't want this closing off anymore south. SREF plumes are the lol. There's 4 over 30" for CON and 2 over 40". Garbage, but funny to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC ens run 1.00" from about BHB-LCI-AQW. 1.50" runs from PSM-ORH-HVN. Still a chance for some good deformation snows up here, but I don't want this closing off anymore south. SREF plumes are the lol. There's 4 over 30" for CON and 2 over 40". Garbage, but funny to look at. 20" for ORH, 7" for dendrite...you are due to watch a couple of these. In reality, you'll get your 15" of pure fluff from 0.7" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 HPC is skeptical of the speed and magnitude of the northern stream solution on the ECMWF too....I agree with them...we'll see tomorrow though. They are going with the faster solutions too which is what I would do given the upper level pattern.Congrats on the 51.6".http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap If my flight back to MHT gets cancelled for any reason Thu night I can probably kiss goodbye seeing this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What in the F is Box doing? i mean that makes 0 sense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats on the 51.6". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap If my flight back to MHT gets cancelled for any reason Thu night I can probably kiss goodbye seeing this storm. We will be searching for you from wherever your flight originates if it gets cancelled. With scissors to cut the noose off....we're a good crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah good idea not to get word out in southern zones *** ALERT *** ALERT ** 0Z WED EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS NEW ENGLAND HISTORIC SNOW STORM ON TRACK ... NO CHANGES ... BURIES CT ( even coastal areas) EASTERN MASS 18-24" OF SNOW or more ... woof woof woof woof THIS SNOWSTORM HAS BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF PLACING IN TOP 5 SNOWSTORMS OF ALL TIME IN EASTERN MASS / BOSTON looks like feb 1978... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kevin is going to be pissed that he isn't in the watch. LOL. BOX issued it for only MA and NH zones...though that is a smart move if the phase doesn't happen, since CT/RI would have more trouble in that scenario. Comment from OKX lol, ironic given watches put up farther downstream: "Since this is a 5th/6th period event...will hold off on issuing winter storm watches...but will highlight in the severe weather potential statement. " Truth is every model except Nogaps brings warning potential to MA/NH, including 6z Nam which keeps streams separate and has enough northern energy for MA/NH but not CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We're still 48-60 hours from the start of the event. If 12z GFS and Euro keep barking for the big dog, you can probably bet most of SNE down to I-95 will be added to the watch zone. Safe call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 06z GFS looks less amped through 48...risk is still east as I have been saying all along....and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will it is semantics. The threat is about as large as it can get at this range. I am just a smidge more skeptical simply based on the seasonal outcomes so far. We are still relying on models nailing the northern stream interaction and I'm not ready to make that total leap yet based on performances to date. If after the 12z run we still have this type of consensus for a storm of this magnitude.... We also had the event in the late 90s or early 2000s where OES bands in advance of a system shut down the se expressway. Drop enough snow in a short period and nothing can keep up. I agree with you, some level of caution is needed in this setup. If anything the southern stream anomaly and its associated diabatic low, at least to me, is just as big if not a bigger variable than the northern stream timing. Quite a bit can go wrong with that feature, and a large amount of the model differences can be blamed on convective params between the models and how they simulate the development of the low. If that low tightens up too much, northward advection is shunted substantially. if moist convection fires along/ahead of the upper anomaly...the low will tend to track a bit farther east. That said, the potential is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS making up some ground at 54h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Joe Fury just spat out 12-18 on his map for CT, still i am a bit sceptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looks sweet upper levels....QPF is a bit funky...has a hole over E MA...but highly doubt it based upon 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT is a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z gfs holding serve. euro has had what, 6 consecutive runs now? so gunshy (me included) after this winter, how many runs until we are sold lol? i assume we need to wait for 12z to incorporate the shortwave sampling off BC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT is a weenie. What do you think? He says top 5? For BOS, the top 10 are: 1. Feb 17-18, 2003.......27.5" 2. Feb 6-7, 1978...........27.1" 3. Feb 24-27, 1969.......26.4" 4. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...25.4" 5. Jan 22-23, 2005........22.3" 6. Jan 20-21, 1978........21.4" 7. Mar 3, 1960..............19.6" 8. Mar 16-17, 1958.......19.4" 9. Feb 8-11, 1994.........18.7" 10. Jan 7-8, 1996..........18.2" 10. Dec 20-21, 1975.....18.2" (tie with 1996) I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kev, BOX says in AFD everyone in SNE should be prepared, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I will say this...the 5H pattern on the Euro ensembles is almost perfect for BOS...closes off near the BM. Classic for a BOS top 15-20 snowfall. We need to see this 24h from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think? He says top 5? I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it. Top 5 has a very low chance of happening. I agree with your doubts on the nrn stream too on the euro. There is something about this that I don't like for prolific totals... Well several things. When I mean prolific I mean totals nearing top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Top 5 has a very low chance of happening. I agree with your doubts on the nrn stream too on the euro. There is something about this that I don't like for prolific totals... Well several things. When I mean prolific I mean totals nearing top 10. Top 10 is pretty beefy too for BOS....they may only have 6 for 20"+...but they are pretty stingy when it comes to top 10 (11 actually with ties)...BOS has some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What do you think? He says top 5? For BOS, the top 10 are: 1. Feb 17-18, 2003.......27.5" 2. Feb 6-7, 1978...........27.1" 3. Feb 24-27, 1969.......26.4" 4. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...25.4" 5. Jan 22-23, 2005........22.3" 6. Jan 20-21, 1978........21.4" 7. Mar 3, 1960..............19.6" 8. Mar 16-17, 1958.......19.4" 9. Feb 8-11, 1994.........18.7" 10. Jan 7-8, 1996..........18.2" 10. Dec 20-21, 1975.....18.2" (tie with 1996) I think Vegas odds are like 5-10% for top 5....maybe 20% for top 10. Which is good for any storm....but doubt we can do it. How many on that list did not have a good blocking pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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