RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Figured I'd ask this question, when we see something like 2.5 inches of precipitation, how are we able to forecast what the ratio's will be for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC ensembles are impressive...near the BM...but faster than the OP which is no surprise, they don't dig the northern stream nearly as much closing it off in MD like the OP...but still go with the phase. The ensembles are about as good as it gets for BOS...at least at this time range and this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT saying better than 50-50 chance this places in the top 5 all time for eastern mass. "Looks like 1978" One more run. If we are still looking at. 2+ qpf I hope they start mobilizing assets. As modeled its a paralyzing hit to public works. Trust me when I say those assets are more than ready after the last two years. Also the thing people might not know but the amount equipment availbel now as compared to 1978 is like comparing the wright brothers to an SR-71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC ensembles are impressive...near the BM...but faster than the OP which is no surprise, they don't dig the northern stream nearly as much closing it off in MD like the OP...but still go with the phase. The ensembles are about as good as it gets for BOS...at least at this time range and this setup. Ah patience makes perfect, the faithful are flocking back. Yea man with lots of support from ENS should be a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 would like to have been there in '92 to drive around and measure between the SE ORH line (350') and NW (1000'). I bet there was a good 6-8" diff. OT sorry, someone mentioned ORH being a weenie spot. heh. .but those big ones usually have flashed everyone above 300 or 400 feet cold enough not to make a huge difference after the initial precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ah patience makes perfect, the faithful are flocking back. Yea man with lots of support from ENS should be a good snowstorm. Starting to become hard to ignore Euro suite. This might be the storm tha we remember for the Euro getting its mojo back....24-36 hours ago, we were pretty skeptical because it had been having a poor season relative to its own standards and GFS giving it a run for its money. But other guidance has clarly caved to it now and Euro hasn't caved back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC ensembles are impressive...near the BM...but faster than the OP which is no surprise, they don't dig the northern stream nearly as much closing it off in MD like the OP...but still go with the phase. The ensembles are about as good as it gets for BOS...at least at this time range and this setup. How does it look over in NYC, if you don't mind me asking. I was really hoping the ensembles would support the MD closure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Starting to become hard to ignore Euro suite. This might be the storm tha we remember for the Euro getting its mojo back....24-36 hours ago, we were pretty skeptical because it had been having a poor season relative to its own standards and GFS giving it a run for its money. But other guidance has clarly caved to it now and Euro hasn't caved back. Three letters Will, STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Starting to become hard to ignore Euro suite. This might be the storm tha we remember for the Euro getting its mojo back....24-36 hours ago, we were pretty skeptical because it had been having a poor season relative to its own standards and GFS giving it a run for its money. But other guidance has clarly caved to it now and Euro hasn't caved back. Quite a few monster 12z/00z Euro like solutions on the GFS ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Quite a few monster 12z/00z Euro like solutions on the GFS ensemble.Yea just got through looking at that, damn impressive mean QPF. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ah patience makes perfect, the faithful are flocking back. Yea man with lots of support from ENS should be a good snowstorm. Still have 66 more ours of patience left. I will finish my flocking after the 12z suite What day is your birthday again? Happy 40th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How does it look over in NYC, if you don't mind me asking. I was really hoping the ensembles would support the MD closure. Hard to tell...it looks NYC does ok....esp for the 2nd half of the storm....ensmeble mean is always dangerous, but I think NYC gets a good warning event on the ensembles...LI looks even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs have been brutal, but LOL at the snow probs over E MA at 75 hours...60% for >12" on the 03z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still have 66 more ours of patience left. I will finish my flocking after the 12z suite What day is your birthday again? Happy 40th Sun, thanks I wish. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The last time I remember this much guidance support for a total shellacking for E MA at this range is Jan 2005....Though back then the inferior GFS was not bullish, but different model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs have been brutal, but LOL at the snow probs over E MA at 75 hours...60% for >12" on the 03z run. That's amazing for the SREF at 75 hrs...up there with the SPC SREF popping a 50 on the sig-tor ingredients (using the old, more strict parameters) at 87 hrs out prior to the April 26th/27th, 2011 tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sun, thanks I wish. Looking good. You're only as old as you feel. If this storm pans out my bet is you feel pretty young on the big day. Lets get thru the 12z suite mostly unchanged and that'd be a good feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The last time I remember this much guidance support for a total shellacking for E MA at this range is Jan 2005....Though back then the inferior GFS was not bullish, but different model now. Was that the one I liked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hard to tell...it looks NYC does ok....esp for the 2nd half of the storm....ensmeble mean is always dangerous, but I think NYC gets a good warning event on the ensembles...LI looks even better. Thanks for the info. Where does the H5 low close off (if at all)? I guess an ensemble mean might not close off an H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks for the info. Where does the H5 low close off (if at all)? I guess an ensemble mean might not close off an H5 low. It closes it off just barely N of the benchmark. Why I said its about as good as it gets for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There was a recent event where the SREF snow probs were indicating heavy snow in eastern Mass. and almost nothing fell. Obviously a different scenario now, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There was a recent event where the SREF snow probs were indicating heavy snow in eastern Mass. and almost nothing fell. Obviously a different scenario now, but still... Yeah the clown event where the Cape ended up getting 3-4" on the outer reach with 1" near the Canal. The difference this time is that other models actually support the SREFs....unlike that event and the 2/1 phantom event they also had big probs in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There was a recent event where the SREF snow probs were indicating heavy snow in eastern Mass. and almost nothing fell. Obviously a different scenario now, but still... True but a week or so ago it worked the other way in they they forecast little or nothing throughout while the other models were heavier. Srefs got that one right. I probably agree more with Phil on the limited effects of this, but the key s/w is just onshore right about now in the NW. So presumably the 12z suite..well you know the old argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah the clown event where the Cape ended up getting 3-4" on the outer reach with 1" near the Canal. The difference this time is that other models actually support the SREFs....unlike that event and the 2/1 phantom event they also had big probs in E MA. And the inverted trough fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 whatever the 6z Nam is smoking... keep it away from the other models 2 totally separate streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 And the inverted trough fiasco Yes that one too. They've had 3 massive busts recently. But each time they were on their own for the most part. This event has been led by the Euro the entire way. Euro seems to have gotten its mojo back in this one as the pattern has changed from late January. But still some time for the Euro to be wrong on the amped idea, but I'm starting to think it won't be. Even a partial phase with warning snows is a win for it, but not an undisputed win....it needs 12"+ in a fairly large area for an undisputed win. But other guidance literally had 1-3/2-4 as recently as 36-48 hours ago while Euro was naked by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes that one too. They've had 3 massive busts recently. But each time they were on their own for the most part. This event has been led by the Euro the entire way. Euro seems to have gotten its mojo back in this one as the pattern has changed from late January. But still some time for the Euro to be wrong on the amped idea, but I'm starting to think it won't be. Even a partial phase with warning snows is a win for it, but not an undisputed win....it needs 12"+ in a fairly large area for an undisputed win. But other guidance literally had 1-3/2-4 as recently as 36-48 hours ago while Euro was naked by itself. Maybe that'll all be proven correct. Certainly so far it has in other guidance coming towards the euro solution. That said its still along ways off for this winter. Maybe the issue with it was simply the pattern we were in or maybe the issue this time is we are still outside the drop zone at 60+. I really hope this is the one that changes the season. If we get into later Wednesday with these solutions and something goes wrong ouch for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe that'll all be proven correct. Certainly so far it has in other guidance coming towards the euro solution. That said its still along ways off for this winter. Maybe the issue with it was simply the pattern we were in or maybe the issue this time is we are still outside the drop zone at 60+. I really hope this is the one that changes the season. If we get into later Wednesday with these solutions and something goes wrong ouch for all of us. That is moving the goal posts IMHO....the drop zone has been more like 84-96h...not 60....we still may lose this one completely....but I doubt it. Even if it trends to a 4-8 event, that is a fail for other models....fail for the Euro too...big fail. But it will have been a compromise as other didn't have that much 2 days ago. We haven't had models agree on a big storm at 72 hours all year....sans Dec 27th....which was rian for the coast, but snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is moving the goal posts IMHO....the drop zone has been more like 84-96h...not 60....we still may lose this one completely....but I doubt it. Even if it trends to a 4-8 event, that is a fail for other models....fail for the Euro too...big fail. But it will have been a compromise as other didn't have that much 2 days ago. We haven't had models agree on a big storm at 72 hours all year....sans Dec 27th....which was rian for the coast, but snow in the interior.Yes and no though. I agree it's mainly been dropped outside or 72, but lets face it we've bad it back off right up to 12 hours out this year. It's still 2-3 days away. If i were sitting in NW VT right now the differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the euro are notable.Don't get me wrong I hope it's right. But at this time range in this season I'm not sure I can 100% buy that viola pattern change and the old euro is back. I hope that's the case and lets face it at 2-3 days its as well supported as we will ever see. I mean they're all major snows at this point which is a clear win for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes and no though. I agree it's mainly been dropped outside or 72, but lets face it we've bad it back off right up to 12 hours out this year. It's still 2-3 days away. If i were sitting in NW VT right now the differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the euro are notable. Don't get me wrong I hope it's right. But at this time range in this season I'm not sure I can 100% buy that viola pattern change and the old euro is back. I hope that's the case and lets face it at 2-3 days its as well supported as we will ever see. We arent there though (some posters here are, but the majority aren't)....there's always a spot where you are on the line at this time range...even 24h out. In SNE, we aren't on that line right now. All guidance gives a widespread warning event except the nogaps. Most give higher than just a mundane warning event. I have been preaching conservative forecasting as much as anyone during this, but I'm just pointing out the model forecast differences between this setup and past setups. We haven't had anything close to this type of consensus on a large event this close in the entire winter, so that would lead to a lot more confidence than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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