Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm

[ORH_wxman]

Another unbelievable run.. when would precip start on Friday on the latest Euro run?

 

Weenie snow starts predawn Friday....but the real stuff not until mid afternoon.

[Typhoon Tip]

It tries to drill 50's in shortly after.  So does the GGEM.   Weak!

[snowwors2]

just NW of Philly here....sounds great for NYC on north...best of luck to you guys...

am I in the game on this run?

thanks!

[ctsnowstorm628]

Lies

Lol. Well I mean c'mon...the weenie part of me is the most pissed off mofo on the planet. The met part of me thinks it's an awesome display of Mother Nature and alot of SNE is so due. Then I realize it's just weather and I can't control it haha

[ctsnowstorm628]

Less than that I think...

Timing got pushed back 6+ hours I believe until after 0z Friday...aka 72 hours. My bad its late lol

[Dsnowx53]

Yeah I'm skeptical of the northern stream diving that far south...if it does, then it would be a HECS for sure...but its way further south than other guidance....only because the Euro seems to be leading the way in this event do I think its plausible. But digging far south is still tough in this flow with an utter lack of a western ridge. We have a crushed central US ridge....very unconventional for a classic KU.

 

 

Yeah, I feel the same way. I think it's conceivable that the H5 low could close off just under or right over NYC, but having it close off that far south seems unrealistic without a west-based block. I'm certainly feeling better about my area seeing several inches of snow, however. 

 

We obviously don't have the western ridge in a classic position, but the wavelengths on the vigorous northern stream shortwave are soooooo small, which helps turn the flow meridional enough to overcome the fact that our ridge is clearly a rolling, progressive one. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I feel the same way. I think it's conceivable that the H5 low could close off just under or right over NYC, but having it close off that far south seems unrealistic without a west-based block. I'm certainly feeling better about my area seeing several inches of snow, however. 

 

We obviously don't have the western ridge in a classic position, but the wavelengths on the vigorous northern stream shortwave are soooooo small, which helps turn the flow meridional enough to overcome the fact that our ridge is clearly a rolling, progressive one. 

 

 

Yeah the ridge not a classic spot doesn't mean we will see no snow in NYC or anywhere else...but its just a big caution flag for the big robust solutions with closing off 500mb far south....I'm still not biting on KU totals up here, even though most guidance is trending that way. I could see MECS totals (10-18") being more realstic. This storm is going to want to hum along to the east, so there needs to be a good reason to stall a CCB for 8 hours...there's ways to do it in thispattern, but its very hard. You need a perfectly timed capture and a bit of digging by the northenr stream.

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah, I feel the same way. I think it's conceivable that the H5 low could close off just under or right over NYC, but having it close off that far south seems unrealistic without a west-based block. I'm certainly feeling better about my area seeing several inches of snow, however. 

 

We obviously don't have the western ridge in a classic position, but the wavelengths on the vigorous northern stream shortwave are soooooo small, which helps turn the flow meridional enough to overcome the fact that our ridge is clearly a rolling, progressive one. 

 

4/6/82 more or less closed off with a pretty lousy setup to the West...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah the ridge not a classic spot doesn't mean we will see no snow in NYC or anywhere else...but its just a big caution flag for the big robust solutions with closing off 500mb far south....I'm still not biting on KU totals up here, even though most guidance is trending that way. I could see MECS totals (10-18") being more realstic. This storm is going to want to hum along to the east, so there needs to be a good reason to stall a CCB for 8 hours...there's ways to do it in thispattern, but its very hard. You need a perfectly timed capture and a bit of digging by the northenr stream.

 

What is a KU total?   

[ORH_wxman]

4/6/82 more or less closed off with a pretty lousy setup to the West...

 

 

So did 1997....but April has a mean westerly flow slower than February which why I don't like to use springtime analogs for winter patterns.

[ORH_wxman]

What is a KU total?   

 

 

For SNE, I consider it to be 18"+....though that is subjectively arguable. KU is really defined by the cumulative totals for the I-95 cities with the largest emphasis placed in the NYC and BWI/DC regions where the population is larger.

 

For ORH, 18" wouldn't break the top 15 storms.

[Dsnowx53]

4/6/82 more or less closed off with a pretty lousy setup to the West...

 

 

 

Good point. I mean, the Euro certainly can happen, given that although our ridge is rolling and progressive, it is pretty amplified and trending even more amplified with time, and we have a potent southern stream. 

 

One thing is that the wavelengths in April are naturally shorter than they are in February, leaving more room for an earlier/further west phase in any given set-up, all else being equal. 

[joey2002]

For ORH, 18" wouldn't break the top 15 storms.

 

Wow, ORH is in such a great snow location.

[Allsnow]

What would be the time frame down here? Thanks

[free_man]

Wow, ORH is in such a great snow location.

The airport and highest terrain is.  

[ORH_wxman]

Wow, ORH is in such a great snow location.

 

 

Its prone to 18+ storms...MRG would beg to differ given his spot, but for a population center, its had some pretty big storms. The top storms are like this:

 

1. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997....33.0

2. Dec 11-12, 1992........32.1

3. Dec 6-8, 1996............26.3

4. Feb 21-22, 1893........25.0

5. Feb 14, 1962.............24.7

6. Feb 13-14, 1899........24.5

7. Jan 22-23, 2005.........24.1

8. Mar 3, 1960...............22.1

9. Mar 5-7, 2001............22.0

10. Jan 12, 2011............21.1

11. Feb 17-18, 2003......20.8

12. Feb 6-7, 1978..........20.2

13. Mar 13-14, 1993......20.1

14. Feb 24-27, 1969.....19.6

15. Feb 4, 1961...........18.8

15 Mar 19-21, 1958......18.8 (tie with 1961)

[ORH_wxman]

The airport and highest terrain is.  

 

 

Airport is probably only a minor influence....it might produce a slightly less threshold for top 10 if the measurments were taken lower...maybe 19" instead of 21"

[H2Otown_WX]

Its prone to 18+ storms...MRG would beg to differ given his spot, but for a population center, its had some pretty big storms. The top storms are like this:

 

1. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997....33.0

2. Dec 11-12, 1992........32.1

3. Dec 6-8, 1996............26.3

4. Feb 21-22, 1893........25.0

5. Feb 14, 1962.............24.7

6. Feb 13-14, 1899........24.5

7. Jan 22-23, 2005.........24.1

8. Mar 3, 1960...............22.1

9. Mar 5-7, 2001............22.0

10. Jan 12, 2011............21.1

11. Feb 17-18, 2003......20.8

12. Feb 6-7, 1978..........20.2

13. Mar 13-14, 1993......20.1

14. Feb 24-27, 1969.....19.6

15. Feb 4, 1961...........18.8

15 Mar 19-21, 1958......18.8 (tie with 1961)

I'm surprised a certain storm 12 years ago today (or technically yesterday) isn't on that list. It must be close.

[eduggs]

Its prone to 18+ storms...MRG would beg to differ given his spot, but for a population center, its had some pretty big storms. The top storms are like this:

 

1. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997....33.0

2. Dec 11-12, 1992........32.1

3. Dec 6-8, 1996............26.3

4. Feb 21-22, 1893........25.0

5. Feb 14, 1962.............24.7

6. Feb 13-14, 1899........24.5

7. Jan 22-23, 2005.........24.1

8. Mar 3, 1960...............22.1

9. Mar 5-7, 2001............22.0

10. Jan 12, 2011............21.1

11. Feb 17-18, 2003......20.8

12. Feb 6-7, 1978..........20.2

13. Mar 13-14, 1993......20.1

14. Feb 24-27, 1969.....19.6

15. Feb 4, 1961...........18.8

15 Mar 19-21, 1958......18.8 (tie with 1961)

Interesting that half are from the 90s and 00s.  I wonder if that reflects changes in measurement practices or a snowier regime...?

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised a certain storm 12 years ago today (or technically yesterday) isn't on that list. It must be close.

 

 

Yes close...ORH had 18.5" on Feb 5-6, 2001.

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting that half are from the 90s and 00s.  I wonder if that reflects changes in measurement practices or a snowier regime...?

 

 

I honestly don't think it makes a huge difference, most of these storms would have been in the top 15 without the 6 hour measurement techniques...I can't place one that was obviously aided by it. Considering only Feb 2003 and Jan 2011 are in the bottom 6, those others would have certianly been in the top 15 regardless....and Feb 2003 was a low ball measurement too because the 20.8 was reported well before the snow stopped and it stuck as they never reported again. Though I think the old way would have produced about 18-19" in that storm as it was fluffy and long duration. I do think Feb 78 was lowballed based on pics and nearby coops though.

 

 

I think we've just had a great run recently....there is nothing to suggest sticking a ruler in the gorund would have produced under 18" in any of these events. I was here for almost all of the recent ones.

[ORH_wxman]

For BOS, the top 10 are:

 

1. Feb 17-18, 2003.......27.5"

2. Feb 6-7, 1978...........27.1"

3. Feb 24-27, 1969.......26.4"

4. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...25.4"

5. Jan 22-23, 2005........22.3"

6. Jan 20-21, 1978........21.4"

7. Mar 3, 1960..............19.6"

8. Mar 16-17, 1958.......19.4"

9. Feb 8-11, 1994.........18.7"

10. Jan 7-8, 1996..........18.2"

10. Dec 20-21, 1975.....18.2" (tie with 1996)

 

 

18" flat doesn't break top 10 at BOS...so we need a very big storm to crack historic records at BOS and ORH.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So why is the northern stream now too slow for a good phase? The southern stream doesn't look like the speed of it has changed on the euro as far as I can see by toggling between 0z and 12z.

It's still 3 days away. Much can and likely will change in that time. I wouldn't worry much about trying to nail down details for another 12 hours or so. 12 hours ago the euro had significant snow almost to Canada where there is almost none this run.

[Ginx snewx]

Sweet, yet another great Euro run for SNE. QPF over 2 . Looking good.

[free_man]

Airport is probably only a minor influence....it might produce a slightly less threshold for top 10 if the measurments were taken lower...maybe 19" instead of 21"

Yeah,  I wasn't talking as much about the 18" storm thing.   However I would say that the Dec 92 freak was a dramatic elevation difference, correct?   Even within city limits?  

[Clinch Leatherwood]

DT saying better than 50-50 chance this places in the top 5 all time for eastern mass. "Looks like 1978"

One more run. If we are still looking at. 2+ qpf I hope they start mobilizing assets. As modeled its a paralyzing hit to public works.

[eduggs]

I honestly don't think it makes a huge difference, most of these storms would have been in the top 15 without the 6 hour measurement techniques...I can't place one that was obviously aided by it. Considering only Feb 2003 and Jan 2011 are in the bottom 6, those others would have certianly been in the top 15 regardless....and Feb 2003 was a low ball measurement too because the 20.8 was reported well before the snow stopped and it stuck as they never reported again. Though I think the old way would have produced about 18-19" in that storm as it was fluffy and long duration. I do think Feb 78 was lowballed based on pics and nearby coops though.

 

 

I think we've just had a great run recently....there is nothing to suggest sticking a ruler in the gorund would have produced under 18" in any of these events. I was here for almost all of the recent ones.

I wonder about storms from the late 1800s through like 1970.  Did they ever just stick a ruler in the ground after 36 hours of heavy windblown snow and just call it 15".  Close enough.  Who knew back then that people would come to take climate stats and top 10 snowstorms so seriously.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I wonder about storms from the late 1800s through like 1970. Did they ever just stick a ruler in the ground after 36 hours of heavy windblown snow and just call it 15". Close enough. Who knew back then that people would come to take climate stats and top 10 snowstorms so seriously.

They didn't measure back then like they do now. Don Kent once interviewed one of the measures who pretty much said they did it when the storm was over. I think the guy was either a Logan measurer or it may have been the old Weymouth NAS. This was maybe 1983 or so on WBZ radio.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah,  I wasn't talking as much about the 18" storm thing.   However I would say that the Dec 92 freak was a dramatic elevation difference, correct?   Even within city limits?  

 

 

Yeah elevation did make a difference, but not THAT much in ORH....even Ray got like 21" from that on the CP...the biggest difference was west in the CT river area where they were removed from the core dynamics. I'm guessing ORH city near downtown had around 28-29" or so.

 

The biggest differences seem to be in the marginal moderate events rather than the huge storms....I have seen like 6" up at 900 feet and then 2.7" down at 500 feet in those once in a while....but those big ones usually have flashed everyone above 300 or 400 feet cold enough not to make a huge difference after the initial precip. Feb 24, 2010 was like that too but a bit heavier, like 11-12" up high and 5-6" down low. But those types of discrepencies that large are a bit rarer than one would think. They only happen every few years.

[Microbursts]

I am VERY confident in the ECMWF data mainly because there has been NO flip flopping in the model forecast output at all (like the NAM, GGEM, and GFS).
I'm definitely going to say get ready for a big storm occurring Friday evening into Saturday.
NOW, the question is, at what intensity will this system hit us. A weaker solution probably means 3-6 inches of snow (away from the shoreline, where mixing will occur initially). If we get hit by the bigger version of this storm, were talking about a foot plus more in CT (especially Eastern CT)!!!