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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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Thank you sir. I'll take my 8-12" but if I miss 24" in ORH that will suck.

 

 

Skip classes Friday and drive down Thursday night if the solution doesn't change much....its a total bomb for ORH this run...we get destroyed by the CCB/deformation band.

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Will i would like to ask you about the high qpf being shown somewhat (now) consistently by the euro

 

Oceanstwx mentioned 250mb anomalies having a high qpf signal and the wind anomalies at that height showing reasons to believe in a slowing motion.

 

is that correct, (basically my memory of his post) that the 250 mb anomalies is a good spot to look for reasons to back up a high qpf event

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Will i would like to ask you about the high qpf being shown somewhat (now) consistently by the euro

 

Oceanstwx mentioned 250mb anomalies having a high qpf signal and the wind anomalies at that height showing reasons to believe in a slowing motion.

 

is that correct, (basically my memory of his post) that the 250 mb anomalies is a good spot to look for reasons to back up a high qpf event

 

 

Well its a start...but its not the only factor. We can get high qpf if other factors are there too...we are using a lot of these other factors in this storm as the 250 u anomalies aren't obscene, but they are decent.

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So why is the northern stream now too slow for a good phase? The southern stream doesn't look like the speed of it has changed on the euro as far as I can see by toggling between 0z and 12z.

 

Less eastward Progression from the Northern stream allows for a longer duration event. Basically you have until the H7 troff axis gets east of you before the event ends.  If that takes longer, you get more snow.

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Looking at the 72 hr frame, with the orientation of the two impulses, it looks perilously close to a full phase given a few subtle timing differences (although those differences become less easy to correct/change closer in to the event).

 

So Boston 2.73" QPF...still a potential record snowfall.

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This is absolutely ridiculous. The H5 low closes off in Maryland on this run at 78 hours. 

 

 

Yeah I'm skeptical of the northern stream diving that far south...if it does, then it would be a HECS for sure...but its way further south than other guidance....only because the Euro seems to be leading the way in this event do I think its plausible. But digging far south is still tough in this flow with an utter lack of a western ridge. We have a crushed central US ridge....very unconventional for a classic KU.

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Not to be "that guy" in your regions thread, but...I have paid euro maps and it's still very tough to tell what happens in my area ( philly) It looks like we're def. 100% snow from 78hrs on and get like .25-.5", but 850s are never above 0 for the entire storm. We total out at 1.25-1.5. I do notice the push of warm air looking at the surface, but could we overcome that. Based on just looking at the EURO what is going on down in my neck of the woods. 

 

I ask because me and a few americanwx friends are going to make a decision whether or not to stay or make a road trip to your area ;)

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