ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 2:52 AM, weathafella said: One thing that all th guidance has is more water vs expected in the setup. It has to do with a pretty nice jet structure and also some decent ML frontogensis with that high to the north opposing the WAA. Couple that with some Atlantic moisture and you have a very efficient QPF producer...that's why the phase solutions are giving so much qpf....not the 1-1.5 that often occurs in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 2:49 AM, CT Rain said: Thankfully it's the NAM. yeah. i'm really rooting for the big phase. i don't care so much about the obscene totals (though obviously bring 'em on) as much as just getting a very dynamic storm. and i think the nam is overzealous over SNE anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I would love a phase but hey I would hit the Nam QPF in a heartbeat. Love seeing all these 1 + amounts coming about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:03 AM, BIrving said: NAM is terrible. Nothing new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL disappointing foot plus yeah okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:00 AM, Ginxy said: I would love a phase but hey I would hit the Nam QPF in a heartbeat. Love seeing all these 1 + amounts coming about. It's just an awkward evolution on the NAM..initially the northern stream is slower and more in line with the Euro, but it almost seems as though the southern stream stays significantly separated until it tries to phase in with the northern s/w way east...just close enough for eastern areas. Also, those 1"+ values will have a tough time verifying with that progressive flow sans maybe eastern MA with the developing comma head. All in all, its the NAM at 72 hours, but another possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:04 AM, sbos_wx said: LOL disappointing foot plus yeah okay That's how you know things have big potential haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anybody in Eastern Mass unhappy right now, after the last two years, needs their head examined. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:08 AM, PeabodyFlood said: That's how you know things have big potential haha But really it's one set of guidance that's gung ho on 12"+, hence why most pros and even some amateurs are telling people to temper expectations. Low end warning seems probable, and the potential is there, but the idealized 84h Euro projection will be tough to even remotely accomplish given the h5 set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Is the NAM actually bad or is it just mad because it doesn't give everyone 2+ feet of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:10 AM, shawnmov said: Anybody in Eastern Mass unhappy right now, after the last two years, needs their head examined. Just sayin'. This, the thought of even sniffing 8"+ is an amazing feeling, people getting disappointed because some dream run may not come true need to remember these last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:14 AM, RI Rob said: Is the NAM actually bad or is it just mad because it doesn't give everyone 2+ feet of snow.. It's out of it's range...and seems funky with its stream interaction, but it's another possible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:11 AM, ctsnowstorm628 said: But really it's one set of guidance that's gung ho on 12"+, hence why most pros and even some amateurs are telling people to temper expectations. Low end warning seems probable, and the potential is there, but the idealized 84h Euro projection will be tough to even remotely accomplish given the h5 set up. Yeah the euro is just insane lol. a low end warning would be fantastic after all the craptastic wx last two winters here, anything beyond that is sweet sweet crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 who is mad about the NAM? I don't see people jumping off the Tobin yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Look, it moved in the right direction and showed more of the phase...that's what we wanted to see. Hopefully the rest of the suite continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The hi-res nam is nice. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Like the way things have gone so far. What's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not 100% sure on this one, but the 00z run almost looks better with the Northern stream than the 12z run.......down south is a little more noisy, but this can probably be attributed to convection (a good thing?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS trending deeper with the northern stream short wave at 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:39 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Not 100% sure on this one, but the 00z run almost looks better with the Northern stream than the 12z run.......down south is a little more noisy, but this can probably be attributed to convection (a good thing?). @45 Northern stream looks better, stronger and digging a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, also held back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Northern stream s/w definitly better digging further then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS very similar to 12z so far......if not slightly better in my opinion. Looks more robust up north and down south as well.........this could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:44 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: GFS very similar to 12z so far......if not slightly better in my opinion. Looks more robust up north and down south as well.........this could be good. Looks better than 12z, jmo. Regardless of what sfc shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Further west and warmer over DC then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS may be too good for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Digging for oil, Looks like some BL issues on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:47 AM, CT Rain said: GFS may be too good for the coastal plain. yeah, looks like it's coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seems good for SNE at h66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On 2/6/2013 at 3:48 AM, Bostonseminole said: yeah, looks like it's coming west Euro solution looking more realistic. GFS coming west when it was said a shift SE was more likely...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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