dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lets keep the juju going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 00z runs incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast. That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will see if we can keep the northern s/w more involved for a happy ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast. That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking. That has been the theme, Most are looking past that, That still gives a nice event by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Pedestrian. You think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guys, when the 00z runs come out...keep on topic and refrain from one word posts...we are going to delete that stuff to keep the thread readable. Fair warning now so nobody gets butthurt if their post is deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You think so? I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide. A realistic view is high end advisory or low end warning to start, I think that we can see for a lot here, Just based on some of the earlier guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide. Tomorrow will certainly be when things start to become reliable in any sense for forecasting anymore details than "it will snow." but it's hard to ignore how awesome 3.5" qpf looks on the euro regardless of how unlikely it is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Tomorrow will certainly be when things start to become reliable in any sense for forecasting anymore details than "it will snow." but it's hard to ignore how awesome 3.5" qpf looks on the euro regardless of how unlikely it is lol. To me it's easy to ignore lol. You simply never see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide. It will be interesting to see if this storm best's the 11" storm total from December 29th. I honestly though that would be this season's greatest snowstorm snowfall total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast. That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking. This is a good example of how to go into the next 72 hours or so...we can adjust upwards if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 To me it's easy to ignore lol. You simply never see that.Maybe once every 35 years or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 To me it's easy to ignore lol. You simply never see that. Exactly. How many times has Boston topped 30" in a storm? Never. How many times has Boston topped 20" in a storm? 6. Not a high probability event on that 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Exactly. How many times has Boston topped 30" in a storm? Never. How many times has Boston topped 20" in a storm? 6. Not a high probability event on that 12z Euro. What's your take as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 To me it's easy to ignore lol. You simply never see that. Rarely, not never. but yeah I know what you mean. As always we will see how it all plays out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What's your take as of now? Cautiously optimistic. I'd rather be closer to the Pike to increase my personal margin for error, but this will certainly be enough to keep my day shifts interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro has been remarkably consistent with the massive hits. Not 3.5" qpf but good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Noyes' new map. Seems somewhat reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA. I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA. I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase. A lot of folks were in the .50" contour as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Has the northern stream parcel moved over land yet for sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide. Two issues which are one coastal involvement and two northern stream system. Sounds like we both agree that the coastal is likely going to be predominantly a miss when we look at the region as a whole. But the northern system should lay down a respectable blanket of white. I may be totally wrong on the coastal but I see it se of the BM in this pattern....18z gfs 12z ggem compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA. I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase. Big bump in mean QPF up here, but like you said, a big increase in spread now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and the news stations are running hot and heavy with storm teasers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Big bump in mean QPF up here, but like you said, a big increase in spread now. On cell, how is the spread oriented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will, those TWC maps I think were from this morning's model runs. (based on the water vapor loop they were running) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 On cell, how is the spread oriented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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