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Feb 8th-9th Potential Significant Coastal Storm


dryslot

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Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast.  That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking.

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Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast.  That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking.

 

 

That has been the theme, Most are looking past that, That still gives a nice event by itself

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I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide.

 

A realistic view is high end advisory or low end warning to start, I think that we can see for a lot here, Just based on some of the earlier guidance

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I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide.

Tomorrow will certainly be when things start to become reliable in any sense for forecasting anymore details than "it will snow." but it's hard to ignore how awesome 3.5" qpf looks on the euro regardless of how unlikely it is lol.

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Tomorrow will certainly be when things start to become reliable in any sense for forecasting anymore details than "it will snow." but it's hard to ignore how awesome 3.5" qpf looks on the euro regardless of how unlikely it is lol.

To me it's easy to ignore lol. You simply never see that.

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I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide.

 

 

It will be interesting to see if this storm best's the 11" storm total from December 29th. I honestly though that would be this season's greatest snowstorm snowfall total.

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Before the hype and mass hysteria starts, I think the one nice thing to be take away is the NS alone looks to produce at least high end advisory, low end warning snows especially away from the coast. That is how I am viewing this storm, I do not think I would be let down with those expectations and anything else is gravy............good luck, happy snow and happy tracking.

This is a good example of how to go into the next 72 hours or so...we can adjust upwards if needed.

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SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA.

 

I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase.

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SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA.

 

I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase.

 

A lot of folks were in the .50" contour as well

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I think greater than 12" is less than 50/50, but not impossible. How many times will we fall for these ridiculous solutions 84 hrs out? It's not a pattern for epic amounts, but I will wait until tomorrow to decide.

Two issues which are one coastal involvement and two northern stream system. Sounds like we both agree that the coastal is likely going to be predominantly a miss when we look at the region as a whole. But the northern system should lay down a respectable blanket of white.

I may be totally wrong on the coastal but I see it se of the BM in this pattern....18z gfs 12z ggem compromise

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SREFs have the low track barely SE of the benchmark, but a ton of spread to the north. QPF through 87 hours is >1" for BOS and southeast in MA.

 

I know they have been terrible, but its the only new guidance out at the moment. Should be interesting to see if the NAM jump son board for the phase.

Big bump in mean QPF up here, but like you said, a big increase in spread now.

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