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Feb Magic or Voodoo Hex? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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Every threat thread should have a final post that Bob Chill is an idiot and then locked.

 

Oh no, you don't get to lay claim to that title.  I'm in the running.

 

I've learned though.  From now on, in my little forecast that's bouncing around my brain, I'm forever going with the model that shows the least precip.  I'm not getting NAM'd or RAP'd again.

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To the tune Turn by the Byrds:

 

For Every Model run the output turns turns turns

Into a disaster for the short term term term

And every weenie hope turns into a disaster

 

A model that showed snow

now says no

A model that had precip

now is just a little bit

The surface does torch

The amount is small on your front porch

But its OK because the 10 day still shows a chance.

 

For every wennie, he holds out hope hope hope

Even though Wes says nope nope nope nope

Maybe something new on the next runs after eleven....

 

The pattern looks good

but some part still looks bad

It get cold

but then it gets dry

It gets wet,

but then it gets warm.

The pattern has not changed and we hope its not too late!

 

--------------

 

Ok - my indrect rant on the stinky pattern!

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LOL! That was good. I don't know why people continue to torture themselves. It's over. I don't care what the models say. They have showed "potential" the entire winter. We are heading into March during a year that found every single possible way to avoid having it snow here. We aren't going to turn it around.

 

Lets just write off the last three years and head into spring with the idea that we are unlikely to see such a snowless period again in our lifetimes.

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There was one weak Nina in the middle of a bunch of ninos and neutrals. If we got an enso stretch like that we'd do well again. Maybe not like the 60s but no winter worse than 8" and most 10-12 or better.

Do you still think we have a shot at anything for March or early April?  Or have you thrown in the towel?

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Now I am going to demand a really nice rainstorm which, apparently, we can't even get.

I would be happy with a nice rainstorm where we get 2 or 3 inches in about 24 hours.  Wash all the chemicals off the road from local governments over-treating for marginal or non-existent events.

 

Of course, asking for a good rainstorm like that - it's about as likely as a good snow storm at this point.  The last good rainstorm was the front that came through in late January (after two days of 70 degree weather) with hours of heavy rain and some thunder.  Since then, it's been pretty dry with the nickle and dime crap.

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I would be happy with a nice rainstorm where we get 2 or 3 inches in about 24 hours.  Wash all the chemicals off the road from local governments over-treating for marginal or non-existent events.

 

Of course, asking for a good rainstorm like that - it's about as likely as a good snow storm at this point.  The last good rainstorm was the front that came through in late January (after two days of 70 degree weather) with hours of heavy rain and some thunder.  Since then, it's been pretty dry with the nickle and dime crap.

Yeah. That rainstorm was our most sig winter event. Lol.

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I would be happy with a nice rainstorm where we get 2 or 3 inches in about 24 hours.  Wash all the chemicals off the road from local governments over-treating for marginal or non-existent events.

 

Of course, asking for a good rainstorm like that - it's about as likely as a good snow storm at this point.  The last good rainstorm was the front that came through in late January (after two days of 70 degree weather) with hours of heavy rain and some thunder.  Since then, it's been pretty dry with the nickle and dime crap.

 

I am totally with you on that. Basically a sprinkle month, constantly damp enough to be annoying and not much else. Gravel roads out here will be dusty again by tomorrow.  Mostly sunny day here.  Mark it down, Tuesday will bring 1/2" plus for most of us.

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I've thrown in the towel on some storm magically popping over us.....if the models dont show some complex from the south with a closed ULL, i am pretty sure it aint happening....we are still pretty far out though...the models may not have something after 240 yet

looks like your temp call for feb will be pretty solid.

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If BWI gets no more accumulating snow this winter, we will have:

 

Lowest consecutive 2-year period of snow ever

Tied for first- lowest consecutive 3 year period of snow ever

Longest consecutive period (4 years) without late season accumulating snowfall (which I define as March or April).

Regression to the mean suggests that March will deliver.

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February has been solidly below normal. First half of March is looking that way as well. Maybe even beyond that.

Yeah looks that way. Climo is tough soon if not already. Day like this you can feel spring exerting some influence. In some ways a cool spring is nice.. Keeps the flowering going longer as long as there aren't too many hard freezes. Next few nice sunny days might get some trees in motion in the city.

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If we can't get snow then I'm glad to see the middle of the country getting it. They need all the snow cover they can get to help with the drought.

Maybe I'm finally growing up.

my stalker is still at it on twitter. he's a coward. :(

someone who posts here.. just not sure who.

I'm sure that I'm a suspect so I'll just tell you now that I don't have a twitter account. I'd rather bully in person.

Some people have too much time on their hands.

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I'm sure that I'm a suspect so I'll just tell you now that I don't have a twitter account. I'd rather bully in person.

Some people have too much time on their hands.

Naa I suspect it's someone who doesn't really post here but has an acct or just browses.
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