Feb Magic or Voodoo Hex? Obs and Banter

[feloniousq]

I saw two mangled flakes getting in the car this morning.

[mappy]

This storm is lolz, why would you track something like this for a day, much less a week. Some people haven't realized that this winter is a lost cause.

And some people haven't realized to stay in their own subforum

[usedtobe]

Back in the good old days when in eleven years, nine were above normal and only one produced less than 15 inches. Those were the days that ruined us older guys.

1957-58 40.4

1958-59 4.9

1959-60 24.3

1960-61 40.3

1961-62 15.0

1962-63 21.4

1963-64 33.6

1964-65 17.1

1965-66 28.4

1966-67 37.1

1967-68 21.4

[WxUSAF]

Back in the good old days when in eleven years, nine were above normal and only one produced less than 15 inches. Those were the days that ruined us older guys.  1957-58		40.4	1958-59		4.9	1959-60		24.3	1960-61		40.3					1961-62		15.0	1962-63		21.4	1963-64		33.6	1964-65		17.1	1965-66		28.4															1966-67		37.1	1967-68		21.4	

JB says that's going to repeat soon because of some AMO gibberish.  

[nw baltimore wx]

Back in the good old days when in eleven years, nine were above normal and only one produced less than 15 inches. Those were the days that ruined us older guys.  1957-58		40.4	1958-59		4.9	1959-60		24.3	1960-61		40.3					1961-62		15.0	1962-63		21.4	1963-64		33.6	1964-65		17.1	1965-66		28.4															1966-67		37.1	1967-68		21.4	

 

Weird, but Wes is apparently thinking outside of the box.  At least on my computer?

[H2O]

would kill for a 58-59 winter

[usedtobe]

JB says that's going to repeat soon because of some AMO gibberish.  

 

That's probably part of his global warming is rubbish spiel.  There was 6 year stretch when each year was above normal. As Andy notes, now we can't even beat the one crappy year in that set. 

[WxUSAF]

That's probably part of his global warming is rubbish spiel.  There was 6 year stretch when each year was above normal. As Andy notes, now we can't even beat the one crappy year in that set. 

It's absolutely part of his AGW rants.  I'd be quite impressed by back-to-back 20-25" years at DCA.  

[AvantHiatus]

And some people haven't realized to stay in their own subforum

My sub-forum is dead, and my other option is NYC/New England.

[H2O]

 

My sub-forum is dead, and my other option is NYC/New England.

Please go there

[WinterWxLuvr]

Someone needs to make one of those "most common words in a document/speech pictures" with all MA storm threads from December through today.  

 

My guess for most common words:

 

NAM

GFS

Euro

Cartopper

Sucks

...

 

 

next

BL issues

warm nose

punt

cancel

dc split

 

 

Definitely "punt"...not sure how I forgot that one.  

 

You guys missed the best one ................... "interesting pattern".  That's been the biggest joke of all.

 

Oops!  I forgot another doozy...............chances.

[H2O]

hugging

[AvantHiatus]

 

Please go there

Time for some mid-atlantic espionage. 

[Bob Chill]

Every threat thread should have a final post that Bob Chill is an idiot and then locked.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Every threat thread should have a final post that Bob Chill is an idiot and then locked.

 

Oh no, you don't get to lay claim to that title.  I'm in the running.

 

I've learned though.  From now on, in my little forecast that's bouncing around my brain, I'm forever going with the model that shows the least precip.  I'm not getting NAM'd or RAP'd again.

[Mrs.J]

Currently 33 with on and off light flurries. WWA until 10am tomorrow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

It's pretty pathetic when you can predict 1/2 the average normal climo snowfall for the month of February, yet still bust high by 800%.

 

Re: my contest predictions at IAD and DCA.

[FrederickWX]

You guys missed the best one ................... "interesting pattern".  That's been the biggest joke of all.

 

Oops!  I forgot another doozy...............chances.

"if"

[PrinceFrederickWx]

If BWI gets no more accumulating snow this winter, we will have:

 

Lowest consecutive 2-year period of snow ever

Tied for first- lowest consecutive 3 year period of snow ever

Longest consecutive period (4 years) without late season accumulating snowfall (which I define as March or April).

[nj2va]

My sub-forum is dead, and my other option is NYC/New England.

 

I don't see why its a problem that you post here in the banter thread.  

[clueless]

Winter of missed opportunities, Lucy.

30 degrees. No precip.

[Ian]

I guess it's good this next sys is rain because it's looking like the models went east.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The temp at Wichester airport has been above freezing (34) for 3 hrs 40 minutes since Tuesday. We have had 1 hr and 20 min of precip obs since Tues. all yesterday, all sleet/fr rain.

[clueless]

Now I am going to demand a really nice rainstorm which, apparently, we can't even get.

[TJ2]

I guess it's good this next sys is rain because it's looking like the models went east.

If that in fact verifies I do take comfort in that.

[midatlanticweather]

To the tune Turn by the Byrds:

 

For Every Model run the output turns turns turns

Into a disaster for the short term term term

And every weenie hope turns into a disaster

 

A model that showed snow

now says no

A model that had precip

now is just a little bit

The surface does torch

The amount is small on your front porch

But its OK because the 10 day still shows a chance.

 

For every wennie, he holds out hope hope hope

Even though Wes says nope nope nope nope

Maybe something new on the next runs after eleven....

 

The pattern looks good

but some part still looks bad

It get cold

but then it gets dry

It gets wet,

but then it gets warm.

The pattern has not changed and we hope its not too late!

 

--------------

 

Ok - my indrect rant on the stinky pattern!

[RevWarReenactor]

LOL! That was good. I don't know why people continue to torture themselves. It's over. I don't care what the models say. They have showed "potential" the entire winter. We are heading into March during a year that found every single possible way to avoid having it snow here. We aren't going to turn it around.

 

Lets just write off the last three years and head into spring with the idea that we are unlikely to see such a snowless period again in our lifetimes.

[Deck Pic]

Back in the good old days when in eleven years, nine were above normal and only one produced less than 15 inches. Those were the days that ruined us older guys.  
1957-58		40.4	
1958-59		4.9	
1959-60		24.3	
1960-61		40.3					
1961-62		15.0	
1962-63		21.4	
1963-64		33.6	
1964-65		17.1	
1965-66		28.4															
1966-67		37.1	
1967-68		21.4

There was one weak Nina in the middle of a bunch of ninos and neutrals. If we got an enso stretch like that we'd do well again. Maybe not like the 60s but no winter worse than 8" and most 10-12 or better.

[FrederickWX]

There was one weak Nina in the middle of a bunch of ninos and neutrals. If we got an enso stretch like that we'd do well again. Maybe not like the 60s but no winter worse than 8" and most 10-12 or better.

Do you still think we have a shot at anything for March or early April?  Or have you thrown in the towel?

[FrederickWX]

Now I am going to demand a really nice rainstorm which, apparently, we can't even get.

I would be happy with a nice rainstorm where we get 2 or 3 inches in about 24 hours.  Wash all the chemicals off the road from local governments over-treating for marginal or non-existent events.

 

Of course, asking for a good rainstorm like that - it's about as likely as a good snow storm at this point.  The last good rainstorm was the front that came through in late January (after two days of 70 degree weather) with hours of heavy rain and some thunder.  Since then, it's been pretty dry with the nickle and dime crap.