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Feb Magic or Voodoo Hex? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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Congrats, Kansas City.

 

But, more seriously, who the f*** cares about Kansas City?  And especially if it's snowing in Kansas City?

As I correctly stated a few months back, our region is boring outside of the big event every now and then. Plus, KC has great BBQ......that's reason enough to care and want to visit.

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I have friends in the NYC area that follow him closely, I peak once in a while but I used to read him when he was free way back when.  He has done this for a long time.  He makes a forecast and then chases it, using whatever crap he can find to support why it will work out, even manipulating data when nothing really shows what he wants, then in the end when he doesnt verify, he spins the crap out of his forecast.  Let me give you his final analysis for his seasonal forecast.  These are estimates...dont remember exactly what he said

 

Forecast for DC: temps -2, Snowfall: 21"

Actual:  Temps +3, Snowfall 4"

 

Analysis:  Well sometimes you can nail a pattern, but the details on the ground simply don't go the way they should.  What can you do.  I was perfect on Sandy from 10 years out, and I would like to pat myself on the back for that historic victory one more time.  Don't worry if you miss this, I will bring it up at least once a week for the rest of my life.  I was 100 percent correct about snowcover for New Years, we had record CONUS snowcover, it doesnt matter that most of it was 1" and confined to places that should have snow, the point is I am awesome.  I nailed the flip to cold that was coming, and that the NAO and PNA would finally line up.  Unfortunately I was just 2 months late in the timeline so it did not happen until March and that was just a bit too late for the Mid Atlantic to cash in.  Remember, those places do not average much snow so all it really would have took was one big event and I would have been totally right, sometimes the details just do not work out, but look at what has happened, the historic event in Sandy, the early season snowfall in NJ and NYC, the New ENgland blizzard, the late season snow attack on NY State and New England.  No one else out there was seeing those things like I was.   I think from that we can see that this was no 2011/2012 and that I obviously am a weather God and if the details on the ground do not match with my forecast, oh well sometimes things just do not go how they are supposed too but the important thing is I am Joe Bastardi, and by the way I got Sandy right. 

That's f*cking brilliant.  

 

His back-patting about Sandy is doubly hilarious since up until VERY near gametime, he kept saying it would go up the Delaware Bay and verify his "Philadelphia Story" which he forecasted while he was in utero.  

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My husband is leaving from Rockville and said there is big "chunky" flakes falling. He wanted to know if we were getting it up here, we are not.

Don't think there are any clouds around.. Or not many.

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If the NAM came out after the GFS/Euro, would anyone bother?

 

In winter.. maybe not. I like it within 24 hours for specific things like precip onset etc. People have too black and white views of models and the NAM has probably been overly bashed for the wrong reasons throughout winter. I love the NAM within 24 hours during the warm months. I like it a good bit further out with squall lines etc as well. MOS is useful out to d2 as well of course.

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