Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,792
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

Feb Magic or Voodoo Hex? Obs and Banter

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

OK I know the "Hate on JB" thing is so 5 years ago but... excuse me this rant

 

Ever since he moved to weatherbell I get the feeling he is shading his forecasts to be tailered more to what will keep his suscribers happy and not what is the most accurate possible forecast.  He has become more vague, and no longer "takes out the trash" when he is wrong.  He often makes a concrete forecast, then when its way off simply moves on as if nothing happened.  Worse, he has become a master of spin.  His winter forecast this year has been a total disaster for much of the nation and yet he refuses to stop defending it.  He throws out obscure data from places no one cares about to justify why he had the right idea.  Now, as its become way too late to save his seasonal forecast, he simply has stopped talking about it.  He ignores that he needs massive snowfall in the mid atlantic to save him and acts like a blizzard in New England is some huge victory for him.  Finally, worst of all, he has begun to manipulate data.  He will do things like using observed weather from one station to verify a forecast made for another location.  For instance using the final snowfall recorded at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA.  To be fair to him, he does seem better for the PA and NYC north area but he is awful for the mid atlantic.  The only question left for me with him is..is he really that ignorant of our region and climo, or is he that dishonest. 

 

rant over, my appologies

I agree with 100% of what you say.  I myself only use JB for entertainment purposes these days.  However, way back in the Accuweather days when he was free to watch, I believe he was a much better forecaster.  Just in my humble opinion of course. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

OK I know the "Hate on JB" thing is so 5 years ago but... excuse me this rant

 

Ever since he moved to weatherbell I get the feeling he is shading his forecasts to be tailered more to what will keep his suscribers happy and not what is the most accurate possible forecast.  He has become more vague, and no longer "takes out the trash" when he is wrong.  He often makes a concrete forecast, then when its way off simply moves on as if nothing happened.  Worse, he has become a master of spin.  His winter forecast this year has been a total disaster for much of the nation and yet he refuses to stop defending it.  He throws out obscure data from places no one cares about to justify why he had the right idea.  Now, as its become way too late to save his seasonal forecast, he simply has stopped talking about it.  He ignores that he needs massive snowfall in the mid atlantic to save him and acts like a blizzard in New England is some huge victory for him.  Finally, worst of all, he has begun to manipulate data.  He will do things like using observed weather from one station to verify a forecast made for another location.  For instance using the final snowfall recorded at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA.  To be fair to him, he does seem better for the PA and NYC north area but he is awful for the mid atlantic.  The only question left for me with him is..is he really that ignorant of our region and climo, or is he that dishonest. 

 

rant over, my appologies

He did the same at in-accuwx ---- He needs money!

 

This is all in the wrong thread!

 

Sorry for joining the comment chain Mods!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

He did the same at in-accuwx ---- He needs money!

 

This is all in the wrong thread!

 

Sorry for joining the comment chain Mods!

I'm not sure about that. If I had to guess I would say he is paid quite well at Weatherbell. He's on the road alot and does quite a few national media spots. I may be way off but he could be paid higher than 80 percent of all meteorologists.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Despites Ians pessimism its actually very nice out. I saw 25 inches in Boston this weekend but there is something nice about snow where you live.

 

any sort of snow is fun at home. if you drive 20+ minutes to see snow that amounts to almost nothing you might have a problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Does this apply to thunderstorms?  :P

 

yes tho you're more likely to bust on a good storm day than a good snow day. today's snow is analogous to a thundershower, people just dont have the need to say "this is the heaviest rain i've seen this year".

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I wouldnt drive to see a dusting either. I was just messing w H2o. So close yet so far. Its just funny to me that you would drop your eternal pessimism into the convo....thats all.

 

that's cute. i've been on the boards a long time.. only so much fun in going all in on d10 etc. think i mostly verified again so oh well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

being real > pessimism

i downplayed a bit too much on pm update this afternoon... what i get for actually doing work all day instead of half work and half wx watching. :P 

 

but nothing really surprising imo. little things like banding are always tricky. fine line between one or two setting up over some towns and no one getting them. if no one gets them there is no accum anywhere. even a mod band over dc didn't do much other than mix us like 75/25... i know people act like we're in amazing snow climo still but it's late season these days... yeah we have great potential for a higher end event but we also are running into the usual issues/pluses of elevation, being N&W etc.

 

im happy people are happy with their snow. outside our recent snow hell.. still kind of a sucky event around here. maybe a little better than that up balti way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ACFD FIREMAN

ACFD FIREMAN

Posted
Posted

that's cute. i've been on the boards a long time.. only so much fun in going all in on d10 etc. think i mostly verified again so oh well.

Ive been on the boards before you came to this local so ok. But Im not talking about d10 threats to cheerlead because one wants it to happen. Whether you care about my opinion or not you come across as a pessimist. Almost hoping a threat doesnt happen so you can score against the weenies who are newbies to this hobby. Maybe realize that a bit....bc whether you know it or not you hold some influence in this local wx community.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Ive been on the boards before you came to this local so ok. But Im not talking about d10 threats to cheerlead because one wants it to happen. Whether you care about my opinion or not you come across as a pessimist. Almost hoping a threat doesnt happen so you can score against the weenies who are newbies to this hobby. Maybe realize that a bit....bc whether you know it or not you hold some influence in this local wx community.

 

with snow im pretty focused on my backyard. im not really hoping it doesn't snow, it just doesn't snow in my backyard very much.

 

for some reason every other event type is more interesting on a regional level to me. with snow i just want to make sure i get a lot and hopefully more than everyone else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted

i downplayed a bit too much on pm update this afternoon... what i get for actually doing work all day instead of half work and half wx watching. :P

 

but nothing really surprising imo. little things like banding are always tricky. fine line between one or two setting up over some towns and no one getting them. if no one gets them there is no accum anywhere. even a mod band over dc didn't do much other than mix us like 75/25... i know people act like we're in amazing snow climo still but it's late season these days... yeah we have great potential for a higher end event but we also are running into the usual issues/pluses of elevation, being N&W etc.

 

im happy people are happy with their snow. outside our recent snow hell.. still kind of a sucky event around here. maybe a little better than that up balti way.

 

I followed this all day and frankly was surprised to see it change over so quickly up this way, but it's all window dressing.  As far as impact, it might as well be rain.

 

Hopefully, no one takes that comment differently than the way it was intended, but from a forecasters point of view, I can't imagine that "missing" this with a forecast that was calling for rain is a big deal because the snow that fell in the areas that were not expecting snow has had little impact.

 

But like everyone else here, I love seeing snow in any form, so I'll take what I can get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...