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Feb Magic or Voodoo Hex? Obs and Banter


Bob Chill

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Snowdrops and crocuses are up. Pretty much all the bulbs my wife planted in the fall peaked out of the ground two weeks ago and has gone into a semi-dormant state while it is chillier.

 

No. The 76 may be legit though.

 

Yeah, I noticed the daffodils starting to poke up about a month ago in the neighborhood (earliest I've seen that in the 5 years I've lived here) but today has been the first day where I've seen a few them in bloom.  The bulbs I planted during the fall have been up for about two weeks now, but like you said, they're sort of in a dormant state now.

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Yeah I have no clue if they are good or bad, but if all you're really looking for is temps and other basic obs, then it probably will do its job..

Depends which one you got h2o, some are not bad. There are ones you can get which have cool link apps. I'll probably just get one like that to have in a few months, don't really need a VP2 at this point. Love being able to see on laptop and phone though when I want. 

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This region just doesn't do long track events well....I'm sure I am being overly pessimistic but the writing is on the wall for VD....looks cold for a bit later but......GFS is real toasty for the storm anyway....I don't think snow is the primary option for this.....in this order I say south OTS.....then scrapper little precip.....then good liquid that starts as rain but then is a few hours of non accumulating snow that is gone when you wake up. Christ weather around here makes me so negative...I hate that...gonna sit back and watch this one play out...my fingers are crossed!

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This region just doesn't do long track events well....I'm sure I am being overly pessimistic but the writing is on the wall for VD....looks cold for a bit later but......GFS is real toasty for the storm anyway....I don't think snow is the primary option for this.....in this order I say south OTS.....then scrapper little precip.....then good liquid that starts as rain but then is a few hours of non accumulating snow that is gone when you wake up. Christ weather around here makes me so negative...I hate that...gonna sit back and watch this one play out...my fingers are crossed!

 

 

You probably shouldn't look @ 6z gfs precip then but I'll post it anyway

 

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This region just doesn't do long track events well....I'm sure I am being overly pessimistic but the writing is on the wall for VD....looks cold for a bit later but......GFS is real toasty for the storm anyway....I don't think snow is the primary option for this.....in this order I say south OTS.....then scrapper little precip.....then good liquid that starts as rain but then is a few hours of non accumulating snow that is gone when you wake up. Christ weather around here makes me so negative...I hate that...gonna sit back and watch this one play out...my fingers are crossed!

Yeah. This is where reading the threads gets frustrating. Not so good model runs causes so much freaking out over stuff that can't be controlled.

I hope things get better but I know how it usually goes.

It did get cold. 17 here

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Lol...good one...most impressive part is actually knowing where Leesburg is....Ji would have put us in Ohio somewhere.

Bob I want it to snow but man...euro is South...Ukie is South...Canadian is South...JMA is South....GFS is steady but has cut back on up North stuff if you read other forums so to me it is making subtle adjustments South...maybe it is whining but yeesh...you don't see that writing? I'm hoping the gfs scores a coupe...but I'm also hoping if its wrong it admits it at 12z today

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Lol...good one...most impressive part is actually knowing where Leesburg is....Ji would have put us in Ohio somewhere. Bob I want it to snow but man...euro is South...Ukie is South...Canadian is South...JMA is South....GFS is steady but has cut back on up North stuff if you read other forums so to me it is making subtle adjustments South...maybe it is whining but yeesh...you don't see that writing? I'm hoping the gfs scores a coupe...but I'm also hoping if its wrong it admits it at 12z today

 

I stick to the euro / gfs. Adding in all the weird ones and metric ones clouds my thinking. 

 

I totally think it's possible to go south and get hosed. I looked close @ the 0z euro h5 hr/vort panels. The biggest difference is the strength and amplification of the vort. It keeps it open and progressive out in front. And I absolutely don't discount that. But it's awful hard at this point to doubt the gfs too. It's been a statue. And the nam has looked great <48 with the vort too. 

 

We'll know tonight one way or the other irt to a total whiff or "sumpin"  

 

I can't back off because I went all in on this shortly after halloween. 

 

How many doubters and tear shedders would there be if this was 09/10? Perceptions sure change don't they? 

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I stick to the euro / gfs. Adding in all the weird ones and metric ones clouds my thinking. 

 

I totally think it's possible to go south and get hosed. I looked close @ the 0z euro h5 hr/vort panels. The biggest difference is the strength and amplification of the vort. It keeps it open and progressive out in front. And I absolutely don't discount that. But it's awful hard at this point to doubt the gfs too. It's been a statue. And the nam has looked great <48 with the vort too. 

 

We'll know tonight one way or the other irt to a total whiff or "sumpin"  

 

I can't back off because I went all in on this shortly after halloween. 

 

How many doubters and tear shedders would there be if this was 09/10? Perceptions sure change don't they? 

Persistence is an evil beotch

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I REALLY hate to say this and I haven't in my 9+ years on these boards....but.....I'm ready for spring. Lets end this misery and hope next year breaks our way.

And yes before a smartass says it...if it snows I will be here posting obs. My frustration with this winter does not diminish my love for snow....

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I REALLY hate to say this and I haven't in my 9+ years on these boards....but.....I'm ready for spring. Lets end this misery and hope next year breaks our way.

And yes before a smartass says it...if it snows I will be here posting obs. My frustration with this winter does not diminish my love for snow....

 

I'm prob a lot different in real life about weather than my digital self. I'm here for a specific reason. To track and root for snow. But anytime we're remotely warm I'm out playing disc golf, hiking, shootin hoops with my boy, and a zillion other outdoor things. I have fun no matter what but you will never ever see me root for warm on this board from tday to march 10th. Doesn't mean I don't take advantage of it. 

 

I just want to have a couple things pan out before I pack it in. It can be in the 60-70's for all of march and I would be thrilled. 

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I'm prob a lot different in real life about weather than my digital self. I'm here for a specific reason. To track and root for snow. But anytime we're remotely warm I'm out playing disc golf, hiking, shootin hoops with my boy, and a zillion other outdoor things. I have fun no matter what but you will never ever see me root for warm on this board from tday to march 10th. Doesn't mean I don't take advantage of it. 

 

I just want to have a couple things pan out before I pack it in. It can be in the 60-70's for all of march and I would be thrilled. 

It pained me to write it more than you know...I have always been not only a snow weenie but also a first class lover of cold weather.

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