Ji Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well hopefully it's onto something...and not on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Whats up with the model sites?? Even though its 6z, it would still be nice to see....anyway looks like a bit of a chance for a backside changeover N of DC...Wont count on it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well hopefully it's onto something...and not on something Maybe we get a miracle and receive 6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The new sref's are out and they are the wettest so far, 12Z NAM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Front end doesnt even look decent out here. Congrats Philly north. I hate Northern stream vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The new sref's are out and they are the wettest so far, 12Z NAM should be interesting. and warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and warmest Was getting ready to post the same thing. The ind members aren't good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and warmest Couldn't see from my phone thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NYC also gets crushed. This could be one of those surprise storms where we are forecasted to see nothing more than some back end flakes and we end up with a foot. #staypositive Alright maybe that is too extreme but I wouldn't be surprised if between now and friday we get a run that throws us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know most here know this but just to reinforce the problem at hand for those who are hoping because the 1036hp looks so good, this says a lot: Look at the wind barbs in our area. S-SE surface flow is a dagger. Same flow @ 850 too. The low near the lakes is a warm air vacuum. That beautiful 1036 hp is rendered useless until the 850 circulation shuts off to our n-w. If the antecedent airmass was much colder then we could talk about meaningful front end precip but there is just too much stacked against us here. There is a very very slim chance the circ around the low to the nw shuts off fast enough to let the low to our south pull enough cold air down to give us something at the end but I wouldn't bet a dollar at 5-1 odds on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The low levels are just toasty by 12z Friday on the NAM. Nearly 5°C at 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The low levels are just toasty by 12z Friday on the NAM. Nearly 5°C at 950mb. And look at the winds at all levels. The southeasterly winds at around 950mb are a killer for those hoping for damming. The strong 850 low to our north also is a big problem. Date: 45 hour Eta valid 9Z FRI 8 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013 57 1.3 0.8 96 0.5 1.1 85 7 273.4 274.1 273.6 284.2 4.00 1 1000 164 2.4 105 14 275.6 2 950 582 4.1 2.5 89 1.6 3.4 144 31 281.4 282.2 279.0 294.7 4.81 3 900 1020 1.4 -1.1 84 2.4 0.3 156 24 282.9 283.6 278.6 294.0 3.93 4 850 1477 -1.6 -2.1 96 0.6 -1.8 165 22 284.5 285.2 279.3 295.4 3.85 5 800 1961 -1.1 -1.1 100 0.0 -1.2 209 18 289.9 290.7 282.4 302.6 4.39 6 750 2473 -4.5 -4.8 98 0.3 -4.7 221 15 291.7 292.3 282.2 302.1 3.56 7 700 3013 -7.4 -8.6 91 1.2 -7.9 229 15 294.3 294.8 282.5 302.8 2.84 8 650 3591 -7.6 -8.2 96 0.5 -7.8 232 42 300.3 300.9 285.3 310.0 3.18 9 600 4210 -11.3 -12.8 88 1.5 -11.8 232 38 303.1 303.5 285.5 310.5 2.38 10 550 4872 -14.9 -21.3 58 6.5 -16.5 240 37 306.5 306.7 285.5 310.6 1.27 11 500 5588 -18.8 -30.8 34 12.0 -21.0 246 37 310.1 310.2 286.1 312.1 0.59 12 450 6363 -24.8 -38.2 28 13.4 -26.5 248 43 312.1 312.2 286.5 313.2 0.31 13 400 7207 -32.0 -38.4 53 6.4 -32.6 249 50 313.4 313.5 287.0 314.7 0.35 14 350 8136 -38.3 -41.7 70 3.4 -38.6 236 65 317.1 317.2 288.1 318.1 0.28 15 300 9176 -47.0 -50.5 68 3.5 -47.2 227 77 319.1 319.1 288.6 319.5 0.12 16 250 10357 -56.1 228 88 322.6 17 200 11771 -53.7 249 81 347.8 18 150 13623 -54.7 257 92 375.8 19 100 16165 -62.2 262 73 407.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yay rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yay rain haha and it barely rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 haha and it barely rains...Warmer Boxing Day 2011 SREFs pulling their fast one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yay rain The NAM almost has that boxing day look except much warmer so maybe we dry slot some or maybe not since it's the nam and a little outside its wheelhouse. Still all the models have that strong northern stream to screw things up in terms of low level temps. For this storm all the models have the warmest layer at around 950mb. For those still hoping for snow, that's the level to watch. if the winds at that level end up being northeasterly instead of southeasterly, there would be hope. My own feeling is the probably of that is around 5% or less but for those who really like hoping that will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It was never going to snow here with this set-up. Maybe next week? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM just went DGEX Feb '10 for MA/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM just went DGEX Feb '10 for MA/NH. there's a 60" pixel in N. MA at 78H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 there's a 60" pixel in N. MA at 78HGood for them. They deserve it. Grumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 there's a 60" pixel in N. MA at 78H 64.7". LOL. The NAM is always good for entertainment purposes, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Isn't this an uncommon event with the two seperate lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Isn't this an uncommon event with the two seperate lows? Not really, it's just we tend to forget them because for us they are usually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 64.7". LOL. The NAM is always good for entertainment purposes, if nothing else. Didn't yesterday's Euro have some ridiculously high amounts too? I guess not as high but still a big snow. Cut the NAM amounts in half and it would still be a huge hit up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Didn't yesterday's Euro have some ridiculously high amounts too? I guess not as high but still a big snow. Cut the NAM amounts in half and it would still be a huge hit up there. Yeah, the models are liking a 2'+ storm for somebody up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Temps aside, the total precip maps for the 12Z NAM are pretty hilarious from our perspective, as well. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This reminds me of the early February storm I chased in 2005. It was all set to dump 18-24 on SNE and it kept trending warmer and further north inside 48 hours. I ended up having to go to North Conway, NH/Fryeburg, ME and even there got "only" about 14" though the mountains just to the west did 20"+, and I drove through there. I'd hate to be in RI, BOS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not really, it's just we tend to forget them because for us they are ALWAYS rain. Fixed that one for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Temps aside, the total precip maps for the 12Z NAM are pretty hilarious from our perspective, as well. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif# Thats crazy. 4-5 inches. Somebody is getting 3 feet up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thats crazy. 4-5 inches. Somebody is getting 3 feet up there. No way is 4-5" of QPF going to happen. 2" maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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