TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nothing else to do this evening anyway, I'm practicing for next winter Like it's not even a threat IMO, go do something else man lol. I like the d8 threat, but thats d8 so I'm waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Above freezing by 42, man I just don't see it on this one. Not really worth watching, it would take a lot to even get an inch of snow. 850's are -4ish at 45 hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 850's are -4ish at 45 hrs fwiw Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. comparing 48 hrs to 12z, at 60 hrs, n stream is stronger and delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like NAM should start us off at snow, BWI at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like NAM should start us off at snow, BWI at least DCA is close... 850s are prob -1/-2 and temp around 33/34... so perhaps an hour of snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 57 hours that 850 line is holding on for dear life near DC metro, definitely different than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DCA is close... 850s are prob -1/-2 and temp around 33/34... so perhaps an hour of snow to start? heh, the runs are getting colder not warmer soooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. That midwest low and position of the High just kills the chances at this latitude...tracking these threats on the models in an unfavorable pattern really underscores the importance of a 50/50 or decent h.l. blocking. Yeah we will track and watch the evolution, but unless you are kidding yourself or have very low expectations(ie a bit of front end frozen will do it for you) the outcome is not going to be especially good for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is a nice improvement I suppose, and yes we need the slower NS to allow a better cleaner earlier phase which then switches off to the coastal low quicker and allows the high to funnel in more cold. Still, looks like nothing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 heh, the runs are getting colder not warmer soooooo... They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh what at 60? CAD for the Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They always do. this year, yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmm, I'll take a cold trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh what at 60? CAD for the Bay? we just need the northern stream to collapse into the southern one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 we just need the northern stream to collapse into the southern one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif like this, just a hair quicker http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM has changes, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 like this, just a hair quicker http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif Wow, the position of the 850mb low is classic on this run for a nice storm, compared to models having it over BUF before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is a nice improvement I suppose, and yes we need the slower NS to allow a better cleaner earlier phase which then switches off to the coastal low quicker and allows the high to funnel in more cold. Still, looks like nothing really. Not really sure how you're so sure of what this will be when it is clearly a fluid situation at this time. Temps are close, get that ns delayed, further west which is what the NAM appears to be doing, get the precip coming in from a more sw direction, give the cad a little better chance, and you have something different altogether. I wouldn't dare say what this will be on Friday morning at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmm, I'll take a cold trend. Dude you punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not really sure how you're so sure of what this will be when it is clearly a fluid situation at this time. Temps are close, get that ns delayed, further west which is what the NAM appears to be doing, get the precip coming in from a more sw direction, give the cad a little better chance, and you have something different altogether. I wouldn't dare say what this will be on Friday morning at this point. I'm just stating its unlikely. Maybe a little front end frozen, but there are a lot of players you need to trend in our favor for a little event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM looks pretty Euroish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Dude you punted Still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 my cad sucks commentary yesterday was an attempt to mock the snow gods, fwiw err something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this year, yep What I was referring to was precip on a sw-ne traj with a high in the Quebec region. Seems like the cold is always under modeled. I don't think it's helping that the NAM has the precip a bit too far east. I'd rather see it a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still do. Then post in the mid range thread...you're too bi polar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't really see the S stream disturbance is going to get much precip here Winterwxluvr, what you just posted is what I mean. The precip from that isn't going to do much for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM looks pretty Euroish Nah, headed out to sea at 78... but will dump good QPF of prob an inch in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That's a nice lp at Hatteras at hr. 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nah, headed out to sea at 78... but will dump good QPF of prob an inch maybe in SNE Yea an inch, and its not even associated with the coastal. Wow if that thing phases... boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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