Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is already a miss for us. Precip is again more of an issue than temps for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ns is weaker but that doesn't mean much. We need the ns vort to dig further south or just go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 ns is weaker but that doesn't mean much. We need the ns vort to dig further south or just go away. we also need cold air and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 we also need cold air and precip oh yea, and that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS only about 2.5" less than euro for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS new dr no. I'd ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ultimately, the storm on its heels will dictate whether Boston does well imho it's a fast flow out there this winter as we've so painfully come to understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 airfare isnt that cheap....like 275 r/t and who knows if we could make it back....we could drive i guess... I'm only in if it is a 2'+ storm...if it is a 12-18" I am out come have a slumber party with me in Harlem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Will stick in this thread now but this is update from last night around midnight. The 1035+ high did move further south on the depictions today but then bounced a bit back north. I think the whole key is to get this high within 150 miles of the western NY state/Canada border and not due east of southern part of Hudson Bay. These are my favorite events to follow-where the low is a very good track but the high initially looks to weak or too far away. I don't think it will be too weak and will have to see just how much of a push of cold air it can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 come have a slumber party with me in Harlem Wow. Best offer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Will stick in this thread now but this is update from last night around midnight. The 1035+ high did move further south on the depictions today but then bounced a bit back north. I think the whole key is to get this high within 150 miles of the western NY state/Canada border and not due east of southern part of Hudson Bay. These are my favorite events to follow-where the low is a very good track but the high initially looks to weak or too far away. I don't think it will be too weak and will have to see just how much of a push of cold air it can make. There is no way you believe yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Local mets paying up our "rainstorm" but will be monitoring it "closely". Hmmm. Let's face it. The winter has not been kind and given those guys a lot of airtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will anyone be chuckling if Boston misses out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There is no way you believe yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seriously, this winter has not been great for the east coast. Let Boston have some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The threshold of chasing this storm for me would be experiencing something I've never experienced before (or somewhat recently) here in the DC area. If Boston really looks to get 30" of snow with 65 mph wind gusts, I would probably head up there. But, even 22" with 50 mph gusts wouldn't surpass what we experienced 2/5-10/10 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if Boston gets hit like the Euro depicts, then this season's pattern has changed but I'll believe it when I see it because I don't believe that to be the case right now I think it goes south and/or east of what the Euro depoicts otoh, if the pattern has changed, then let Boston have theirs this weekend and then maybe we can get the day 8 storm like the Euro shows, or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if Boston gets hit like the Euro depicts, then this season's pattern has changed but I'll believe it when I see it because I don't believe that to be the case right now I think it goes south and/or east of what the Euro depoicts otoh, if the pattern has changed, then let Boston have theirs this weekend and then maybe we can get the day 8 storm like the Euro shows, or better Interesting that many of the GFS members take this pretty far east. Also interesting that about a third of SREF members evolve quite differently than the operational models (appears that the northern stream is nonexistent on them). Going to be fun watching what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if Boston gets hit like the Euro depicts, then this season's pattern has changed but I'll believe it when I see it because I don't believe that to be the case right now I think it goes south and/or east of what the Euro depoicts otoh, if the pattern has changed, then let Boston have theirs this weekend and then maybe we can get the day 8 storm like the Euro shows, or better We should know tonight with the 0z runs. EURO has led the way with this coastal. GFS has followed suit today along with other lesser models, in one form or another. I don't recall the last coastal this winter, if we really had one. And I wouldn't discount anything because we have all seen the models come up with a brand new solution in the last few years, for good (not so much) and for bad, if you're a snowlover a couple of days before the event. The experts on this forum can easily explain the interaction of all the players on the field and whether the solution is logical or not. And if it's not, they can say why, and be correct. But every now and then, we get a setup where the models change one feature or two overnight and then that result becomes the new reality. With the players we have on the field today, especially the pretty strong HP to our north and a system coming up from the south, and our climo, I think anything is possible with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its sad that I have to say this, this isn't our storm. Anyone that thinks we have a chance, if we do its about .1%, the trough axis, e based nao, the miller b nature of it, the northern stream primary taking its track and not digging enough to compensate with an earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If this winter had a couple of decent events we would all be completely writing off this storm. At least not much is invested. The a**hole side of me want this to be nothing more than a normal storm up north too. Being in a historic snow drought won't allow me to root for anyone to get a hecs outside of mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I want nothing more than for boston to get whiffed. That said, if they are getting 3 feet and 40/G60 I will be up there first flight friday morning. Will probably head to the coast on the back end to see if I can get some gusts over 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People always talk about good for them, etc. I work on a weather website, and even if I didn't, I wouldn't get excited and don't for others getting snow, unless I am. If I wanted Boston to get snow, that'd be because I live there. I care about our area, everywhere else can get whatever, even if its nary a flake. Its cool to see meteorological phenomenon, and just as I said I don't care if anyone else gets anything, if Boston gets this good for them, good for anyone. I'll never feel bad though for somewhere other than here getting shafted hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will anyone be chuckling if Boston misses out? Lol No...I'm not that petty and small-minded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We should all go to the same hotel though if it hits. Where are y'all planning on staying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting that many of the GFS members take this pretty far east. Also interesting that about a third of SREF members evolve quite differently than the operational models (appears that the northern stream is nonexistent on them). Going to be fun watching what happens.the pattern is fast still.. not completely sure how a low is going to sit and paste boston for 24 hours. everyone talks about one caving to the other but it's possible the gfs and euro are still moving to the middle. i mean.. solid shot they get a good snow but the op euro is seemingly too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We should all go to the same hotel though if it hits. Where are y'all planning on staying? uhhhh..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the pattern is fast still.. not completely sure how a low is going to sit and paste boston for 24 hours. everyone talks about one caving to the other but it's possible the gfs and euro are still moving to the middle. i mean.. solid shot they get a good snow but the op euro is seemingly too bullish. Remember the good old days when if the Euro said HECS it was a foregone conclusion. Now the Goofus is usually right and we never get snow. I would love to go back to the olden days when it was Dr. No and if it was yes you would be excited for 4 days leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the pattern is fast still.. not completely sure how a low is going to sit and paste boston for 24 hours. everyone talks about one caving to the other but it's possible the gfs and euro are still moving to the middle. i mean.. solid shot they get a good snow but the op euro is seemingly too bullish. AGREE. The pattern has not changed much if at all from what we have had, and its transitioning to milder and more zonal, at least for a few days. Not sure how this extreme solution fits the synoptic setup...I mean really it does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the pattern is fast still.. not completely sure how a low is going to sit and paste boston for 24 hours. everyone talks about one caving to the other but it's possible the gfs and euro are still moving to the middle. i mean.. solid shot they get a good snow but the op euro is seemingly too bullish. I like to look at the ens members, not to look for one that suits me, but to see what the majority look like. From the looks of the gfs mems it would seem a basic whiff is a possibility. I can't see the euro members but from your post earlier it didn't sound anywhere close to the euro op. I get what you're saying about moving to the middle. Makes sense. But the SREFS have to have some usefulness, and the 15z members had about a third that seem to develop this thing in a different fashion, taking the precip on a more inside track through our area and the out to the ne. I can't see the 21z members yet, but the mean would suggest that some members are still in that camp. Point being with all the different scenarios, it would seem the whole situation is far from certain. I'd just like to see some front end frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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