jwilson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at all that juice in Michigan, alone. Every single clipper that trained through since last week was dry as a bone...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 still no consensus, NAM goes nuts and RGEM just backed off for NYC area compared to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And its a no Swing and a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Southern vort weaker? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is no help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And its a no If it sucks, toss it as far as you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not if this is right http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur Meant aloft. Should have stated that. RAP is ok for the first couple of hours, but is pretty warm by 2-3am. Now, it has been known to have a warm bias, so lets look for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One thing to remember is that MoCo unlike Fauquier is not divided into two zones. Places like Damascus are vastly different than Silver Spring. The advisory is probably not really for eastern MoCo. I doubt there is one person over that last 24 hours, other than perhaps me, who would have endorsed that a WWA would be issued for a segment of the immediate DC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is no help. Has a weaker s vort, thats bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks almost identical. Maybe a little more CAD but the precip is a little east. We just can't win, can we? That's why my optimism was cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I doubt there is one person over that last 24 hours, other than perhaps me, who would have considered that a WWA would be issued for a segment of the immediate DC metro areaHuh? Their criteria for a weekday morning is like 4 flakes. This isn't turning into a snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 still no consensus, NAM goes nuts and RGEM just backed off for NYC area compared to 18z run. Lol at everyone in the NY thread chucking the GFS because it does not show what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 N. MD backlash has sort of made a return on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I doubt there is one person over that last 24 hours, other than perhaps me, who would have considered that a WWA would be issued for a segment of the immediate DC metro area LWX is pretty trigger happy with advisories. Only a trace of ice is needed to pull the trigger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is no help. Throw it out. Time to NowCast! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I doubt there is one person over that last 24 hours, other than perhaps me, who would have considered that a WWA would be issued for a segment of the immediate DC metro area You want a cookie? Folks have been conservative and/or realistic for good reason....that doesn't mean negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol at everyone in the NY thread chucking the GFS because it does not show what they want. it doesn't show what they want falling from the sky because of this; a mess at 5H (compared to NAM) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't get the weaker southern vort though on 0Z, seems the opposite of what obs show compared to this time at 18Z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it doesn't show what they want falling from the sky because of this; a mess at 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_500_vort_ht.gif Also effs up our already bombing storm off the se coast... Just watch radar if you want anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My DP is 24, but it is a pretty cheapo station.... I have a Vantage Vue and generally seems in line with other stations. All the other wunderground stations seem to be about 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it doesn't show what they want falling from the sky because of this; a mess at 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_027_500_vort_ht.gif For their sake I hope the EURO does not show anything similar or there will be mass suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Immediate DC area could get an hour or two of snow/snow mix I'd guess. The warmer air off the sfc invades pretty quick. I guess root for the northern end of precip to outrace the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 N NJ goes from about 3' on the nam to 6-10" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is no help. The EURO is the king of this storm, always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Possible help from a deform band on the HRRR? It would be snow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS really might be having feedback issues, it just doesn't seem to match with what we are seeing right now. NAM is crazy in the other direction but somewhere in the middle seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Again, people need to beware of the GFS. It has caught on and even led the pack in a few instances. If I were up north, I'd be a little anxious...but even on the GFS, it's still a formidable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 N. MD backlash has sort of made a return on the GFS Maybe Tommy T was on to something earlier?See what he's got going at 11:15 I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe Tommy T was on to something earlier?See what he's got going at 11:15 I guess... He will show the RPM like he always does, so whatever the latest run of that shows is what he will go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS clown map gives most of central VA 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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