Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 man boston gets totally demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 SNE....jesus Crushing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I mean the cold air crashes in quicker, but it's hard for us unless the primary is weaker. Front end frozen is the best case, this set-up in an E based NAOish setup is not favorable for those s of 40 N, really S of NYC. NE is more primed in this less than optimal set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 man boston gets totally demolished Yet someone up there will b**ch its not 52" of snow on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yet someone up there will b**ch its not 52" of snow on the models im tempted to hop a train on friday... what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im tempted to hop a train on friday... what a disaster Hope you get stuck in a snowdrift on the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the best part of the run is the qpf hole over winchester.. boston's 3" liquid all snow is no match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 SNE....jesus go dude. Its a once in a lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 go dude. Its a once in a lifetime can this pattern really produce a 3 foot snowstorm for boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction. This is a good sign, I mean I didn't think much irt CAD with this one. can this pattern really produce a 3 foot snowstorm for boston? I don't think so to be honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction. One of the problems is to get the low to come north you need the trough associated with the primary to be a strong one and that ends up keeping the northern stream strong enough to screw us. You weaken the northern stream and the low doesn't come north as well ro deepen as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 3'' qpf all snow. You got to be kidding me. What a kick in the stomach. Had to guess winter would end this way. Someone tell me some good news. Any way this busts tremendously for boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the precip forecast maps looks like boxing day 2011 sorta.. just warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the precip forecast maps looks like boxing day 2011 sorta.. just warmer. Don't even mention that storm. I have CWG nightmares about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ricmhond gets clobbered with qpf..skips over DC and destroys Boston. Even NYC gets a good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 All I could see was liquid output and for my area it looks like the storm simply develops a bit too late. Temps appear cold enough but there is litereally no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 All I could see was liquid output and for my area it looks like the storm simply develops a bit too late. Temps appear cold enough but there is litereally no precip. yea its a horrible situation for us.....Miller A/B but the bombing is too far north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction. temps are not the bigger problem, (they are a problem just not the biggest) the southern branch storm simply gets going too late and we are in the precip hole between the northern branch and the southern branch. sound familiar??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ctblizz has almost 40" of snow in his sig....I'm thinking they are just fine up there... Boston proper has been absolutely shafted all season. Other areas if not majority are close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 yea its a horrible situation for us.....Miller A/B but the bombing is too far north of us yea and what is deflating is this is the kind of setup that is very difficult to get to trend better for us. In general if anything it would trend the other way. Models tend to be too far south with H5 features from 3-5 days out. That is why often times we get the "north" trend A lot of people confuse that with a west trend since it can also sometimes seem like snow is shifting west because the mtns can sometimes hold onto a snowy solution in WV even with a further north track. I have found it VERY rare that a storm trends west or south to a significant degree at the last minute in the way we would need here. We can get a storm to trend suppressed due to a block at the last minute but we have no such feature to do that here. We would need the trend to be for more rapid amplification of the STJ system further south, and that goes against every bias the models usually have. I am still excited in general about our chances in the longer range for a snow event before Feb is over. Just maybe not this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 temps are not the bigger problem, (they are a problem just not the biggest) the southern branch storm simply gets going too late and we are in the precip hole between the northern branch and the southern branch. sound familiar??? Really our typical miller B screwjob. No dice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If Boston sees 3 feet consider me suicidal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 the SNE storm is so cold that they get ridiculous ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 temps are not the bigger problem, (they are a problem just not the biggest) the southern branch storm simply gets going too late and we are in the precip hole between the northern branch and the southern branch. sound familiar??? Should we look for for the scenario to change 4 us to give us a slightly better results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If Boston sees 3 feet consider me suicidal Leave towson and take me with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If Boston sees 3 feet consider me suicidal Just go home for the weekend. Kill Friday classes. Crazy for you to miss this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would steal Matt's infamous response of "next" but would add to it "year" for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the SNE storm is so cold that they get ridiculous ratios maybe .. the low is pretty close. could be a wet pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 on 2nd look, isn't there something on days 8-9, or is that a miss too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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