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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php

 

It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction.

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Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php

 

It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction.

 

This is a good sign, I mean I didn't think much irt CAD with this one. 

 

can this pattern really produce a 3 foot snowstorm for boston?

I don't think so to be honest...

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Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php

 

It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction.

 

One of the problems is to get the low to come north you need the trough associated with the primary to be a strong one and that ends up keeping the northern stream strong enough to screw us. You weaken the northern stream and the low doesn't come north as well ro deepen as much. 

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All I could see was liquid output and for my area it looks like the storm simply develops a bit too late.  Temps appear cold enough but there is litereally no precip. 

 

yea its a horrible situation for us.....Miller A/B but the bombing is too far north of us

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Take a look at the trend though, espe. the last 3 runs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/tr24f72.php

 

It's looking more and more like a good damming scenario and it should be interesting to see how the NAM treats the low levels once it locks onto the synoptic development (assuming the euro is right). Still need that primary to be a bit weaker to keep the surface flow out of the NE but a step in the right direction.

temps are not the bigger problem,  (they are a problem just not the biggest) the southern branch storm simply gets going too late and we are in the precip hole between the northern branch and the southern branch.   sound familiar???

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yea its a horrible situation for us.....Miller A/B but the bombing is too far north of us

yea and what is deflating is this is the kind of setup that is very difficult to get to trend better for us.  In general if anything it would trend the other way.  Models tend to be too far south with H5 features from 3-5 days out.  That is why often times we get the "north" trend  A lot of people confuse that with a west trend since it can also sometimes seem like snow is shifting west because the mtns can sometimes hold onto a snowy solution in WV even with a further north track.  I have found it VERY rare that a storm trends west or south to a significant degree at the last minute in the way we would need here.  We can get a storm to trend suppressed due to a block at the last minute but we have no such feature to do that here.  We would need the trend to be for more rapid amplification of the STJ system further south, and that goes against every bias the models usually have.  I am still excited in general about our chances in the longer range for a snow event before Feb is over.  Just maybe not this one. 

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temps are not the bigger problem,  (they are a problem just not the biggest) the southern branch storm simply gets going too late and we are in the precip hole between the northern branch and the southern branch.   sound familiar???

Should we look for for the scenario to change 4 us to give us a slightly better results?

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