mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, it's trending wetter. It basically never gets my 850's above 0, and the 18z NAM keeps all levels here below freezing through tomorrow morning. Of course, as is normal, precip is the issue. I still don't think the DC BALT corridor is out of at least a little fun. I've noticed that ne wind starting to blow, and I think you guys will get good precip. I don't know what the temps are down there, but I don't think all hope is lost. the northern vort on the RAP is hideous http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=21ℑ=ruc%2F21%2Fruc_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im going with accumulating snow before it changes over...screw the models don't we always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. Agreed. I think the wasted arctic air was the tipping point. That signaled the largest shift in winter patterns in a long long time. And we're still riding the effects of it. I do think nina's are not good for snow though so I wasn't trying to say that but they don't shut us out like this. Not at all. I'm sure this has happened before multiple times in the long history of climo but it can't be that common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 but spring will be sprung before our hope arrives We can still get a significant snow through the first third of March. After that it becomes very unlikely. I know the combination of having some very warm early springs of recent and the total crap pattern of the last 2 years makes it seem hopeless. In my opinion we have an equal chance right now of getting to the end of this winter without a 2" plus event as we have of getting 2 such events before its over. Neither would surprise me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the northern vort on the RAP is hideous http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=21ℑ=ruc%2F21%2Fruc_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif Seems to me that the first levels to warm have to be upstairs and the RAP seems to be slow to do that. It's cold east of the mountains , and if we get a ne wind to boot its going to be hard to warm up downstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We can still get a significant snow through the first third of March. After that it becomes very unlikely. I know the combination of having some very warm early springs of recent and the total crap pattern of the last 2 years makes it seem hopeless. In my opinion we have an equal chance right now of getting to the end of this winter without a 2" plus event as we have of getting 2 such events before its over. Neither would surprise me a bit. I know it's just me, but once March comes, unless we can get something really big, the 2" type stuff doesn't excite me I'm really ready for spring and warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you want a big year enso is a factor, not the only one but 6 of our 10 snowiest seasons since 1950 have been ninos, only one nina. Still only 50% of ninos yield more snow than average but our average is 19.6 or something like that, about 4 inches more than the normal. When we go big in nino years, we usually go way big. I agree 100% Wes and I corrected myself with my response to psu. But going so warm and snowless for so long is odd. Expecting 50% of climo in a Nina is totally normal imo but not expecting 10-20% in back to back years. This year is a nina hangover too. It's neutral. NH circulation as a whole has been against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The name Nemo itself is somewhat misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It truly is hard to believe that big slab of moisture is going to, for the most part, bypass us. Alas, so goes the life of a snow weenie in the mid-a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ian, looking at that radar, even without the northern branch system we would not be in great shape. Our best snows usually come when a nice juicy STJ system has precip streaming into WV at that point in its evolution. We then only need a nice solid NE progression from there, and not some crasy phase and due north jog. Even without a northern stream problem we would need a really fast phase and turn north from where we are right now to be good. Of course without the northern stream this system might be completely different by now so its a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forecast high temps for tomorrow here went from 47 to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP just keeps getting wetter. I admit it had serious issues earlier this week and may again but it's been pretty good at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just FYI. Tommy T on WBAL just went 2-4 of back end. Friday night into Saturday morning. Wh wh what!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just FYI. Tommy T on WBAL just went 2-4 of back end. Friday night into Saturday morning. Wh wh what!? Is he even a degreed met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is he even a degreed met? Yes from NC state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tom Tasselmeyer is probably the best met in Baltimore. But, WBAL has been off on snowfall forecasts since 2010-2011, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol- rap is now dancing around dca with .5". Does it have to be all rain? Does it? Really? Come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tom Tasselmeyer is probably the best met in Baltimore. But, WBAL has been off on snowfall forecasts since 2010-2011, not sure why. Too much RPM, lol. They really should just go with NWS/HPC forecasts honestly. I haven't watched local TV weather personalities for 10 years. For a weather hobbyist, they serve no purpose, and tend to be annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 High still putting a noticeable ne breeze down this way. I don't think that northwest low is going to be able to warm up any levels and any warm up, if any, likely comes from the coastal. In this case I am Not worried about lack of percip in KY/WV as the coastal system simply is not oriented that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol- rap is now dancing around dca with .5". Does it have to be all rain? Does it? Really? Come on man! rapprecip.JPG weird to see anything past the light greens on rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol- rap is now dancing around dca with .5". Does it have to be all rain? Does it? Really? Come on man! rapprecip.JPG Mostly yes. Chill Mr. Chill. We will have our day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NWS just updated the point forecast for Frederick to say snow/sleet tonight and rain/snow on Fri. snow mix mentioned through Fri night. Percentages of precip went from 60% to 90% tomorrow. Accumulations still listed as less than a half inch though each period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Didn't we just get our epic/historic storm 3 years ago now? Mostly yes. Chill Mr. Chill. We will have had our day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anybody got upper level gfs info for 18z for KOKV? Just curious as the NAM data was all levels below freezing and 12 z gfs was mostly below. I don't have a source for 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Didn't we just get our epic/historic storm 3 years ago now? Who said anything about epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nws doesnt do grammar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 oh lord https://twitter.com/Cantoreyardstic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A couple of the Baltimore TV mets with their in house models are insistent on some wrap around snow into Baltimore (perhaps 2"), even a bit south of there on Fri night into Sat morning. Contoured more to the North and East of Balto....Not saying it will happen but with a powerful storm you can't just rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 oh lord https://twitter.com/Cantoreyardstic Wow... just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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