ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 thats a fun game.... BOS 20" ORH 22" PVD 22" HFD 15" NYC 12" PHL 3" Anyone want to guess Balt and DC??? Bwi- .005" Iad- .004" Dca- 3 stray flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that looks very reasonable to me that would probably happen if the northern stream mysteriously fell apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We had the same problem the other way too this year. The cold resisted the precip. It's a very special place we live in. Nobody does winter like the ma. Nobody. I'm down to 35.8 now so I expect a grill topper to 4" or so. Maybe more. Maybe less. ehh we are in a bad spot in a nina type pattern because the southern branch is too weak to do the job on its own, and the northern branch is screaming along way too fast to phase and help. So we are stuck with southern systems that are pathetic and are easily suppressed by the northern branch and stay to our south, and northern branch systems that just can't dig enough to get down to our lattitude with much impact. Add in the apps drying out weak clippers from the NW and you have the snow hole in our area in this type pattern. Its not a fluke, its not accident, and its not some cruel trick of fate out to get us. Its actually very logical and exactly what should happen in this pattern. Now... the next 3 weeks we have signs the STJ is going to get active, and the wavelengths will shorten, as should happen this time of year, allowing the northern branch to dig a bit more...add in a favorable MJO phase and we have a decent shot for the first time in over 2 years. Lets pray we back door our way to at least something respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 here is my favorite post from NE forum 1585 replies to this topic #1576 Bostonseminole Posted 7 minutes ago 4,526 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Burlington, MA 28 °F NE @ 6 MPH the GFS has been horrible with this storm.. Sig worthy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This thing is starting to turn the corner now. This has January 2000 writen all over it.....too bad it's rain this time. MDstorm ehh models all having this make a northward move right now through tonight...problem is as it runs into the influence of the northern stream late tonight it then gets shunted east before phasing and pulling due north again. Its only for like 3-6 hours but its the critical 3-6 hours for us...and perfectly normal given this setup...see boxing day storm. It could be wrong, and this could bomb out early and just keep trucking north, but using radar to validate that is innacurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 ehh models all having this make a northward move right now through tonight...problem is as it runs into the influence of the northern stream late tonight it then gets shunted east before phasing and pulling due north again. Its only for like 3-6 hours but its the critical 3-6 hours for us...and perfectly normal given this setup...see boxing day storm. It could be wrong, and this could bomb out early and just keep trucking north, but using radar to validate that is innacurate. arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras wth do you think a miracle is??? <check thread title> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 here is my favorite post from NE forum the GFS has been horrible with this storm.. Sig worthy.. Saw a post on Facebook a little while ago from someone complaining about the latest models showing 18" instead of 22". Boo freakin' hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is enough room between the systems where IF (1 in a zillion if) the southern low bombed quicker it would be able to overcome the inherent problems of the northern system. Go cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you have to throw in climatology at some point...it is hard to get 24"+ from a fast mover...top 5 storms don't happen very much...it is hard to get 20"...otherwse there would be a litany or storms with those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras Its been since Jan 2000 since we got the kind of massive bust we would need at this point and in this way. Problem is, and why we don't get these types of surprises is the bias 99 percent of the time is for a slower phase and amplification. We can get nice surprises when its a supressed event and the models overdo the southern extent of the confluence, or a WAA type event with CAD, or lost of other setups...but this type of thing is just not good for us because we need the models to be wrong in the opposite way of how they usually are. THere is always a chance, january 2000 happened, and that was a case of a storm phasing way ahead of schedule, but its been a long time and models have come a long way. But you know what, crazy things happen and so I wont steal your hope at this point, it could happen, just make sure you do your HW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder what is more likely, I wake up on Saturday morning with a foot of snow or I wake up on Saturday morning and check my mega millions ticket to find out it is a winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ehh we are in a bad spot in a nina type pattern because the southern branch is too weak to do the job on its own, and the northern branch is screaming along way too fast to phase and help. So we are stuck with southern systems that are pathetic and are easily suppressed by the northern branch and stay to our south, and northern branch systems that just can't dig enough to get down to our lattitude with much impact. Add in the apps drying out weak clippers from the NW and you have the snow hole in our area in this type pattern. Its not a fluke, its not accident, and its not some cruel trick of fate out to get us. Its actually very logical and exactly what should happen in this pattern. Now... the next 3 weeks we have signs the STJ is going to get active, and the wavelengths will shorten, as should happen this time of year, allowing the northern branch to dig a bit more...add in a favorable MJO phase and we have a decent shot for the first time in over 2 years. Lets pray we back door our way to at least something respectable. It still snows here in Nina's-- just not as much. The past two winters thus far *have* been a fluke when taken altogether. Our record-smashing streak of no 2" snows is so ridiculous because we get a 2-4" snow in almost every single bad winter. All it takes is one day of something other than rotten and we end up with a January '02 event. It just doesn't happen for us to go two winters in a row without a moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z RGEM went nuts up over New England much like the NAM and Euro...I know the GGEM is crap but the RGEM is a pretty good short range tool, much better then the NAM. I would have to say, I would lean towards the NAM/RGEM/SREF/Euro combo at this point over the GFS/UKMET combo. I am actually rooting for New England, not because I give a damn about them but because if this follows the seasonal trend and turns into a progressive crap show then its a bad sign that things are still stacked in the wrong way. But if this really does stall out and bomb them with 30" plus... well maybe we have hope. Besides, good karma cant help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It still snows here in Nina's-- just not as much. The past two winters thus far *have* been a fluke when taken altogether. Our record-smashing streak of no 2" snows is so ridiculous because we get a 2-4" snow in almost every single bad winter. All it takes is one day of something other than rotten and we end up with a January '02 event. It just doesn't happen for us to go two winters in a row without a moderate snow. we have had a little bad luck thrown in, but nothing that out of the realm of possability that I feel like we have been treated unfairly by the snow gods or anything. We have been stuck in a bad pattern for 2 years now. Its not like other places near us are doing much better honestly. Your right it has been a really bad stretch but the real issue has been the persistence of this pattern, not the results during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar The coastal gets going fast enough to cut off the SW flow before that is a threat... for a while the low SE of us and the one NW of us kinda duel it out to a stalemate before they phase and everything crashes. This is kind of a really awesome event taking place if we can remove ourselves from the pain of missing it in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap I luv me sum rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we have had a little bad luck thrown in, but nothing that out of the realm of possability that I feel like we have been treated unfairly by the snow gods or anything. We have been stuck in a bad pattern for 2 years now. Its not like other places near us are doing much better honestly. Your right it has been a really bad stretch but the real issue has been the persistence of this pattern, not the results during it. It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap because you like more rain? Euro is colder than the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you have to throw in climatology at some point...it is hard to get 24"+ from a fast mover...top 5 storms don't happen very much...it is hard to get 20"...otherwse there would be a litany or storms with those totals Although I do wonder if climatology is different now than what we've been used to since childhood. I've noticed that so many events in the past few years get ridiculous liquid equivalents, even during relatively short durations. Like the first January 2011 snow bomb that gave Kevin 20+"? That busted in the positive direction in total precip and was out of there in less than 24 hours IIRC. Then of course 1/26-27/11 was super-wet in all the I-95 corridor. Boxing Day had 30+" totals in NJ. Not just for us, it seems like the big storms now just go nuts instead of capping at 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ji that's what the ne guys will be doing in another 24 hrs. They probably should marry the euro or a compromise between it and the GFS. The latter may be suffering from its sometimes late to phase game though the euro does like bombing out on occasion but that usually seems to be way farther out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Looks like a Sandy turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. If you want a big year enso is a factor, not the only one but 6 of our 10 snowiest seasons since 1950 have been ninos, only one nina. Still only 50% of ninos yield more snow than average but our average is 19.6 or something like that, about 4 inches more than the normal. When we go big in nino years, we usually go way big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap Yes, it's trending wetter. It basically never gets my 850's above 0, and the 18z NAM keeps all levels here below freezing through tomorrow morning. Of course, as is normal, precip is the issue. I still don't think the DC BALT corridor is out of at least a little fun. I've noticed that ne wind starting to blow, and I think you guys will get good precip. I don't know what the temps are down there, but I don't think all hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. but spring will be sprung before our hope arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar My father is in Louisville. He called to tell me how warm it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im going with accumulating snow before it changes over...screw the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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