TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP same trend with precip. 20z is wettest run yet: 20zrapqpf.JPG Guess ill take the qpf and take my chances, rap juicing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. For all south of 40N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how long is 40N going to keep punting the GFS? That's gotta be nerve wrecking. GFS is still a good storm, but not Euro like. I'd tend to have confidence in the Euro/NAM solution in this time frame. Check your texts! 5:15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For all south of 40N? I dunno click the link and change the location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. yes..ugly....I'm about to ignore all guidance and just assume it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. Down from 850s warm up too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. I clicked around on the rap soundings. Problematic too. Close but not really. Better be basketball sized flakes to survive the fall in frozen form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how long is 40N going to keep punting the GFS? until the euro abandons them its basically euro/nam/sref giving them epic totals UKMET/GGEM/GFS all imply a more modest 10-18" type event. I would tend to lean towards the euro/sref blend at this point but I sure would be nervous with the GFS in that other camp right now given the progressive nature of this winter and the need for the capture to happen on time or else... GFS evolution is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I arrived in NYC just 24 hours after that storm for New Years week that winter, and the impacts were minor by then. Some bus routes were still diverted but that was about it. I thought it was amazing how little 2 feet of snow seemed to affect the NYC metro. I was mostly doing touristy things so perhaps that changed the perspective but only 24 hours after a 2 foot snow in DC proper things are usually still a mess. Midtown has a climate more like Atlanta or Norfolk... it's just such an enormous heat sink that snow has no staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. Can you ever be that confident with near record totals? Subtle shifts in track and strength wreaks havoc on totals. I didn't fully buy any of the storms in 09-10. Especially the last one. Looking at the runs it looks like ne is relying on intensity vs slower speed. All our big ones either move slow or pivot overhead. This one never stops moving at a fair clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. and all based on modelology and hype....their complaints will be nauseating...but 40N are such entitled self-important immature brats wont surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. I seem to recall at least 24 hours before, it was pretty clear that an area-wide 20+ inches was quite likely. Maybe even before that, but it probably seemed crazy to call for 20" more than a day out. I know that the morning of Feb. 5, NWS Sterling was basically going for 20-30" generally across the metro DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. this setup is a bit more thread the needle than ours was. im not sure i was confident till i got to about 19.5" though. gfs could easily be right and im sure people would be whiny and annoying if they only get 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Gotta love the CRAS! That 2nd map at 48h is reminiscent of the morning of 2-10-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif that looks very reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this setup is a bit more thread the needle than ours was. im not sure i was confident till i got to about 19.5" though. gfs could easily be right and im sure people would be whiny and annoying if they only get 14". Yeah...of course, that "only" 14" of theirs would be whipped about on 50MPH winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS gives .30 total precip for DCA with the following for 2m's, 850's, precip: 2.2 -.4 .01 2.7 -.9 .16 5.6 1 .11 3.8 -3.1 .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that looks very reasonable to mecras seems to be better analyzing the army of surface highs to the north. no way it's at the benchmark at 12z saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 pretty much every snow map is a copy of the euro. we're close to not needing to forecast anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just went 21.2" for ORH in a text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I clicked around on the rap soundings. Problematic too. Close but not really. Better be basketball sized flakes to survive the fall in frozen form. The problem is we have no real resistance to the WAA associated with the precip coming from the south. That low to our NW assures that problem and cuts us off from any real CAD or cold air advenction. This has been a problem all winter and why some joke about how as the precip moves in the cold air moves out...well yea if you have no mechanism for the cold air to "resist" the WAA that is causing precip, it will just move out as the precip approaches. The only way that can work is if you have some real cold air established before the WAA takes over...not this marginal crap. So with this setup we are screwed until the system phases and a true CCB can setup and get cranking. At this point it truly is a miracle, basically have to hope something like the CRAS comes true and the whole thing blows up faster then all the other guidance says. There are like 4 runs of the SREF that have a CRAS like solution. So out of 24 runs we get 4 that would give us snow... so I guess its possible just like we all know a hair mary type odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 cras seems to be better analyzing the army of surface highs to the north. no way it's at the benchmark at 12z saturday. I think its also picking up on a triple phase event that will pull the low NW and into NJ like that. It looks very likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The problem is we have no real resistance to the WAA associated with the precip coming from the south. That low to our NW assures that problem and cuts us off from any real CAD or cold air advenction. This has been a problem all winter and why some joke about how as the precip moves in the cold air moves out...well yea if you have no mechanism for the cold air to "resist" the WAA that is causing precip, it will just move out as the precip approaches. We had the same problem the other way too this year. The cold resisted the precip. It's a very special place we live in. Nobody does winter like the ma. Nobody. I'm down to 35.8 now so I expect a grill topper to 4" or so. Maybe more. Maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Someone in interior New England is going to get 3 feet, I can see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just went 21.2" for ORH in a text thats a fun game.... BOS 20" ORH 22" PVD 22" HFD 15" NYC 12" PHL 3" Anyone want to guess Balt and DC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This thing is starting to turn the corner now. This has January 2000 writen all over it.....too bad it's rain this time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just went 21.2" for ORH in a text I'll be bummed if either Marlborough, MA or Waterbury, CT come in with 30"+. Those were my realistic targets if I had the balls to go. I'm kind of surprised Marlborough seems to be a popular spot for chasers, must just be from people like me snooping around on hotels.com and trying to get close enough to ORH but still on a major highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think its also picking up on a triple phase event that will pull the low NW and into NJ like that. It looks very likely to me. It can happen. Just look at Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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