psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar The coastal gets going fast enough to cut off the SW flow before that is a threat... for a while the low SE of us and the one NW of us kinda duel it out to a stalemate before they phase and everything crashes. This is kind of a really awesome event taking place if we can remove ourselves from the pain of missing it in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap I luv me sum rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we have had a little bad luck thrown in, but nothing that out of the realm of possability that I feel like we have been treated unfairly by the snow gods or anything. We have been stuck in a bad pattern for 2 years now. Its not like other places near us are doing much better honestly. Your right it has been a really bad stretch but the real issue has been the persistence of this pattern, not the results during it. It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap because you like more rain? Euro is colder than the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you have to throw in climatology at some point...it is hard to get 24"+ from a fast mover...top 5 storms don't happen very much...it is hard to get 20"...otherwse there would be a litany or storms with those totals Although I do wonder if climatology is different now than what we've been used to since childhood. I've noticed that so many events in the past few years get ridiculous liquid equivalents, even during relatively short durations. Like the first January 2011 snow bomb that gave Kevin 20+"? That busted in the positive direction in total precip and was out of there in less than 24 hours IIRC. Then of course 1/26-27/11 was super-wet in all the I-95 corridor. Boxing Day had 30+" totals in NJ. Not just for us, it seems like the big storms now just go nuts instead of capping at 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ji that's what the ne guys will be doing in another 24 hrs. They probably should marry the euro or a compromise between it and the GFS. The latter may be suffering from its sometimes late to phase game though the euro does like bombing out on occasion but that usually seems to be way farther out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Looks like a Sandy turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's beyond bad luck though. Yea we can whine about our yards but just like you and I talked about in another thread, it's been really bad snow-wise everywhere. The rockies are sucking with near record breaking back to back bad snow years. When I lived their we averaged above climo during the nina's because my area was favored by w-nw orographic flow. The midwest has had a terrible run as well as ne and the ma. It's been a profoundly bad snow situation in a lot of areas. I don't blame the nina on that. Ninas can hammer the northern half of the western states with piles of snow. I think it has more to do with what's been happening near the pole and the persistent patterns in europe/russia. Something large scale is going on. South of us got lucky last year with a couple nice events but overall the east has been snow starved. If the east is going to suck overall, it makes sense that the ma sucks the most. But it's definitely not all nina driven. Something else is at work. And I don't think it's any coincidence that the snow is coming back to our side of the globe once the big siberian blocking high kinda broke down and moved around and then the pv moved over here (finally). I know this is ot so I'll stop here but it's beyond nina imo. Enso is just one factor and I'm not even sold that it's the major factor. If you want a big year enso is a factor, not the only one but 6 of our 10 snowiest seasons since 1950 have been ninos, only one nina. Still only 50% of ninos yield more snow than average but our average is 19.6 or something like that, about 4 inches more than the normal. When we go big in nino years, we usually go way big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hug the Rap Yes, it's trending wetter. It basically never gets my 850's above 0, and the 18z NAM keeps all levels here below freezing through tomorrow morning. Of course, as is normal, precip is the issue. I still don't think the DC BALT corridor is out of at least a little fun. I've noticed that ne wind starting to blow, and I think you guys will get good precip. I don't know what the temps are down there, but I don't think all hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. but spring will be sprung before our hope arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar My father is in Louisville. He called to tell me how warm it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, it's trending wetter. It basically never gets my 850's above 0, and the 18z NAM keeps all levels here below freezing through tomorrow morning. Of course, as is normal, precip is the issue. I still don't think the DC BALT corridor is out of at least a little fun. I've noticed that ne wind starting to blow, and I think you guys will get good precip. I don't know what the temps are down there, but I don't think all hope is lost. the northern vort on the RAP is hideous http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=21ℑ=ruc%2F21%2Fruc_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im going with accumulating snow before it changes over...screw the models don't we always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no there are other things that lined up wrong also...thus we did bad even for Nina climo. PDO phase didn't help at all and even for a nina the STJ has been dead on arrival for a long time. Add in some unfavorable happenings with the PV location and you have a perfect storm of ugly for snow in the CONUS. SIgns are we are starting to come out of it slowly so... hope springs eternal. Agreed. I think the wasted arctic air was the tipping point. That signaled the largest shift in winter patterns in a long long time. And we're still riding the effects of it. I do think nina's are not good for snow though so I wasn't trying to say that but they don't shut us out like this. Not at all. I'm sure this has happened before multiple times in the long history of climo but it can't be that common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 but spring will be sprung before our hope arrives We can still get a significant snow through the first third of March. After that it becomes very unlikely. I know the combination of having some very warm early springs of recent and the total crap pattern of the last 2 years makes it seem hopeless. In my opinion we have an equal chance right now of getting to the end of this winter without a 2" plus event as we have of getting 2 such events before its over. Neither would surprise me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the northern vort on the RAP is hideous http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=21ℑ=ruc%2F21%2Fruc_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif Seems to me that the first levels to warm have to be upstairs and the RAP seems to be slow to do that. It's cold east of the mountains , and if we get a ne wind to boot its going to be hard to warm up downstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We can still get a significant snow through the first third of March. After that it becomes very unlikely. I know the combination of having some very warm early springs of recent and the total crap pattern of the last 2 years makes it seem hopeless. In my opinion we have an equal chance right now of getting to the end of this winter without a 2" plus event as we have of getting 2 such events before its over. Neither would surprise me a bit. I know it's just me, but once March comes, unless we can get something really big, the 2" type stuff doesn't excite me I'm really ready for spring and warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you want a big year enso is a factor, not the only one but 6 of our 10 snowiest seasons since 1950 have been ninos, only one nina. Still only 50% of ninos yield more snow than average but our average is 19.6 or something like that, about 4 inches more than the normal. When we go big in nino years, we usually go way big. I agree 100% Wes and I corrected myself with my response to psu. But going so warm and snowless for so long is odd. Expecting 50% of climo in a Nina is totally normal imo but not expecting 10-20% in back to back years. This year is a nina hangover too. It's neutral. NH circulation as a whole has been against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The name Nemo itself is somewhat misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It truly is hard to believe that big slab of moisture is going to, for the most part, bypass us. Alas, so goes the life of a snow weenie in the mid-a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ian, looking at that radar, even without the northern branch system we would not be in great shape. Our best snows usually come when a nice juicy STJ system has precip streaming into WV at that point in its evolution. We then only need a nice solid NE progression from there, and not some crasy phase and due north jog. Even without a northern stream problem we would need a really fast phase and turn north from where we are right now to be good. Of course without the northern stream this system might be completely different by now so its a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forecast high temps for tomorrow here went from 47 to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP just keeps getting wetter. I admit it had serious issues earlier this week and may again but it's been pretty good at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just FYI. Tommy T on WBAL just went 2-4 of back end. Friday night into Saturday morning. Wh wh what!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just FYI. Tommy T on WBAL just went 2-4 of back end. Friday night into Saturday morning. Wh wh what!? Is he even a degreed met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is he even a degreed met? Yes from NC state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tom Tasselmeyer is probably the best met in Baltimore. But, WBAL has been off on snowfall forecasts since 2010-2011, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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