Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. this setup is a bit more thread the needle than ours was. im not sure i was confident till i got to about 19.5" though. gfs could easily be right and im sure people would be whiny and annoying if they only get 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Gotta love the CRAS! That 2nd map at 48h is reminiscent of the morning of 2-10-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif that looks very reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this setup is a bit more thread the needle than ours was. im not sure i was confident till i got to about 19.5" though. gfs could easily be right and im sure people would be whiny and annoying if they only get 14". Yeah...of course, that "only" 14" of theirs would be whipped about on 50MPH winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS gives .30 total precip for DCA with the following for 2m's, 850's, precip: 2.2 -.4 .01 2.7 -.9 .16 5.6 1 .11 3.8 -3.1 .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that looks very reasonable to mecras seems to be better analyzing the army of surface highs to the north. no way it's at the benchmark at 12z saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 pretty much every snow map is a copy of the euro. we're close to not needing to forecast anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I clicked around on the rap soundings. Problematic too. Close but not really. Better be basketball sized flakes to survive the fall in frozen form. The problem is we have no real resistance to the WAA associated with the precip coming from the south. That low to our NW assures that problem and cuts us off from any real CAD or cold air advenction. This has been a problem all winter and why some joke about how as the precip moves in the cold air moves out...well yea if you have no mechanism for the cold air to "resist" the WAA that is causing precip, it will just move out as the precip approaches. The only way that can work is if you have some real cold air established before the WAA takes over...not this marginal crap. So with this setup we are screwed until the system phases and a true CCB can setup and get cranking. At this point it truly is a miracle, basically have to hope something like the CRAS comes true and the whole thing blows up faster then all the other guidance says. There are like 4 runs of the SREF that have a CRAS like solution. So out of 24 runs we get 4 that would give us snow... so I guess its possible just like we all know a hair mary type odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 cras seems to be better analyzing the army of surface highs to the north. no way it's at the benchmark at 12z saturday. I think its also picking up on a triple phase event that will pull the low NW and into NJ like that. It looks very likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The problem is we have no real resistance to the WAA associated with the precip coming from the south. That low to our NW assures that problem and cuts us off from any real CAD or cold air advenction. This has been a problem all winter and why some joke about how as the precip moves in the cold air moves out...well yea if you have no mechanism for the cold air to "resist" the WAA that is causing precip, it will just move out as the precip approaches. We had the same problem the other way too this year. The cold resisted the precip. It's a very special place we live in. Nobody does winter like the ma. Nobody. I'm down to 35.8 now so I expect a grill topper to 4" or so. Maybe more. Maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Someone in interior New England is going to get 3 feet, I can see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just went 21.2" for ORH in a text thats a fun game.... BOS 20" ORH 22" PVD 22" HFD 15" NYC 12" PHL 3" Anyone want to guess Balt and DC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This thing is starting to turn the corner now. This has January 2000 writen all over it.....too bad it's rain this time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just went 21.2" for ORH in a text I'll be bummed if either Marlborough, MA or Waterbury, CT come in with 30"+. Those were my realistic targets if I had the balls to go. I'm kind of surprised Marlborough seems to be a popular spot for chasers, must just be from people like me snooping around on hotels.com and trying to get close enough to ORH but still on a major highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think its also picking up on a triple phase event that will pull the low NW and into NJ like that. It looks very likely to me. It can happen. Just look at Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 thats a fun game.... BOS 20" ORH 22" PVD 22" HFD 15" NYC 12" PHL 3" Anyone want to guess Balt and DC??? Bwi- .005" Iad- .004" Dca- 3 stray flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that looks very reasonable to me that would probably happen if the northern stream mysteriously fell apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We had the same problem the other way too this year. The cold resisted the precip. It's a very special place we live in. Nobody does winter like the ma. Nobody. I'm down to 35.8 now so I expect a grill topper to 4" or so. Maybe more. Maybe less. ehh we are in a bad spot in a nina type pattern because the southern branch is too weak to do the job on its own, and the northern branch is screaming along way too fast to phase and help. So we are stuck with southern systems that are pathetic and are easily suppressed by the northern branch and stay to our south, and northern branch systems that just can't dig enough to get down to our lattitude with much impact. Add in the apps drying out weak clippers from the NW and you have the snow hole in our area in this type pattern. Its not a fluke, its not accident, and its not some cruel trick of fate out to get us. Its actually very logical and exactly what should happen in this pattern. Now... the next 3 weeks we have signs the STJ is going to get active, and the wavelengths will shorten, as should happen this time of year, allowing the northern branch to dig a bit more...add in a favorable MJO phase and we have a decent shot for the first time in over 2 years. Lets pray we back door our way to at least something respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 here is my favorite post from NE forum 1585 replies to this topic #1576 Bostonseminole Posted 7 minutes ago 4,526 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Burlington, MA 28 °F NE @ 6 MPH the GFS has been horrible with this storm.. Sig worthy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This thing is starting to turn the corner now. This has January 2000 writen all over it.....too bad it's rain this time. MDstorm ehh models all having this make a northward move right now through tonight...problem is as it runs into the influence of the northern stream late tonight it then gets shunted east before phasing and pulling due north again. Its only for like 3-6 hours but its the critical 3-6 hours for us...and perfectly normal given this setup...see boxing day storm. It could be wrong, and this could bomb out early and just keep trucking north, but using radar to validate that is innacurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 ehh models all having this make a northward move right now through tonight...problem is as it runs into the influence of the northern stream late tonight it then gets shunted east before phasing and pulling due north again. Its only for like 3-6 hours but its the critical 3-6 hours for us...and perfectly normal given this setup...see boxing day storm. It could be wrong, and this could bomb out early and just keep trucking north, but using radar to validate that is innacurate. arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras wth do you think a miracle is??? <check thread title> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 here is my favorite post from NE forum the GFS has been horrible with this storm.. Sig worthy.. Saw a post on Facebook a little while ago from someone complaining about the latest models showing 18" instead of 22". Boo freakin' hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is enough room between the systems where IF (1 in a zillion if) the southern low bombed quicker it would be able to overcome the inherent problems of the northern system. Go cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 arnt we due for a reverese bust? #cras Its been since Jan 2000 since we got the kind of massive bust we would need at this point and in this way. Problem is, and why we don't get these types of surprises is the bias 99 percent of the time is for a slower phase and amplification. We can get nice surprises when its a supressed event and the models overdo the southern extent of the confluence, or a WAA type event with CAD, or lost of other setups...but this type of thing is just not good for us because we need the models to be wrong in the opposite way of how they usually are. THere is always a chance, january 2000 happened, and that was a case of a storm phasing way ahead of schedule, but its been a long time and models have come a long way. But you know what, crazy things happen and so I wont steal your hope at this point, it could happen, just make sure you do your HW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder what is more likely, I wake up on Saturday morning with a foot of snow or I wake up on Saturday morning and check my mega millions ticket to find out it is a winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ehh we are in a bad spot in a nina type pattern because the southern branch is too weak to do the job on its own, and the northern branch is screaming along way too fast to phase and help. So we are stuck with southern systems that are pathetic and are easily suppressed by the northern branch and stay to our south, and northern branch systems that just can't dig enough to get down to our lattitude with much impact. Add in the apps drying out weak clippers from the NW and you have the snow hole in our area in this type pattern. Its not a fluke, its not accident, and its not some cruel trick of fate out to get us. Its actually very logical and exactly what should happen in this pattern. Now... the next 3 weeks we have signs the STJ is going to get active, and the wavelengths will shorten, as should happen this time of year, allowing the northern branch to dig a bit more...add in a favorable MJO phase and we have a decent shot for the first time in over 2 years. Lets pray we back door our way to at least something respectable. It still snows here in Nina's-- just not as much. The past two winters thus far *have* been a fluke when taken altogether. Our record-smashing streak of no 2" snows is so ridiculous because we get a 2-4" snow in almost every single bad winter. All it takes is one day of something other than rotten and we end up with a January '02 event. It just doesn't happen for us to go two winters in a row without a moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z RGEM went nuts up over New England much like the NAM and Euro...I know the GGEM is crap but the RGEM is a pretty good short range tool, much better then the NAM. I would have to say, I would lean towards the NAM/RGEM/SREF/Euro combo at this point over the GFS/UKMET combo. I am actually rooting for New England, not because I give a damn about them but because if this follows the seasonal trend and turns into a progressive crap show then its a bad sign that things are still stacked in the wrong way. But if this really does stall out and bomb them with 30" plus... well maybe we have hope. Besides, good karma cant help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yikes! anyone notice the 60's currently in KY? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It still snows here in Nina's-- just not as much. The past two winters thus far *have* been a fluke when taken altogether. Our record-smashing streak of no 2" snows is so ridiculous because we get a 2-4" snow in almost every single bad winter. All it takes is one day of something other than rotten and we end up with a January '02 event. It just doesn't happen for us to go two winters in a row without a moderate snow. we have had a little bad luck thrown in, but nothing that out of the realm of possability that I feel like we have been treated unfairly by the snow gods or anything. We have been stuck in a bad pattern for 2 years now. Its not like other places near us are doing much better honestly. Your right it has been a really bad stretch but the real issue has been the persistence of this pattern, not the results during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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