mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, I'm at least 8 miles N of you and my current temp is 37.3. I've been paying attention to the stupid thermo all day. This hobby is ridiculous. we need a break in the overcast early in the evening to get rid of some of this captured daytime heating that's our only slim chance, all other things remaining equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ian, I'm on my phone so I can't check but isn't there a >4" product for that? bos has pretty high odds of 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the SREF really pulled the rug out for northern MD for wraparound...of course that was a long shot. It almost always ends up well north of where the models put it from a few days out. The precip only decreased slightly but thats because it had a modest uptick in front end light precip that will be non accumulating muck at best. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, I'm at least 8 miles N of you and my current temp is 37.3. I've been paying attention to the stupid thermo all day. This hobby is ridiculous. My station shows 38. I am at a bit higher elevation, though. I have been watching it all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we need a break in the overcast early in the evening to get rid of some of this captured daytime heating that's our only slim chance, all other things remaining equal There's some dp spread. I'm still in the upper 20's. But I also think it's going to be tough to get to freezing. It's possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ian, I'm on my phone so I can't check but isn't there a >4" product for that?bos has pretty high odds of 24"+ Thanks. Have a sucker bet with a friend with him calling for 4-6". Had to show him he's got a chance to keep him riled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Temps are more or less where they were forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know precip seems to be increasing, but my gut says our chances of seeing any real accumulating snow (like 1-3" in the Baltimore north area of MD) have gone down. Ironically as our precip from the developing southern system increase our chances of getting any meaningful precip up here from the wraparound dies. We were better off when the coastal developed a bit more east, and allowed the northern branch system to dive in and perhaps we could get some bands of wraparound. As we bring the coastal further west and stronger it actually is forcing the northern system further north, and thus we get more precip in the DC area of the wet variety, but the wraparound ends up forced further north also. I don't see that trend reversing itself so at this point our only hope left is maybe to get the coastal to really blow up faster then forecast and get a fast front end thump snow. Even that is highly unlikely as the thermal profile in the DC area doesn't support it, and up here we are going to miss the coastal precip and now also the wraparound. I was only holding out hope for maybe an inch or two up here but I think its about time to punt on that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Temps are more or less where they were forecast. with all the different Wunderground and Weatherbug stations, it'll be argued both ways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know precip seems to be increasing, but my gut says our chances of seeing any real accumulating snow (like 1-3" in the Baltimore north area of MD) have gone down. Ironically as our precip from the developing southern system increase our chances of getting any meaningful precip up here from the wraparound dies. We were better off when the coastal developed a bit more east, and allowed the northern branch system to dive in and perhaps we could get some bands of wraparound. As we bring the coastal further west and stronger it actually is forcing the northern system further north, and thus we get more precip in the DC area of the wet variety, but the wraparound ends up forced further north also. I don't see that trend reversing itself so at this point our only hope left is maybe to get the coastal to really blow up faster then forecast and get a fast front end thump snow. Even that is highly unlikely as the thermal profile in the DC area doesn't support it, and up here we are going to miss the coastal precip and now also the wraparound. I was only holding out hope for maybe an inch or two up here but I think its about time to punt on that even. this and what has happened so far this "winter" have me seriously doubting anything will change in the next 21 days....after that, fugetaboutit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm with hoffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Great post psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 eric fisher is trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 eric fisher is trolling us Untitled-15.jpg His hair is going to get messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Right. WWA up for Loudoun. Great anticipation of another mixed precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't waste my time with the regional crap but I will say they do not handle it well at all when a major storm hits south of them. I do not understand their attitude from some up in New England that every snowstorm is their birthright and how dare something hit DC and not Boston. When a storm gets suppressed and hits NC or Southern VA I dont feel like the universe has slighted me in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 eric fisher is trolling us Untitled-15.jpg I'm not that bummed about not chasing...we got an equal or better storm 3 years ago....we'd be stuck in someone's house or hotel without much freedom to drive around once they shut down roads....i mean, I am bummed....but not that bummed....I'm more bummed i didnt do the sandy chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't waste my time with the regional crap but I will say they do not handle it well at all when a major storm hits south of them. I do not understand their attitude from some up in New England that every snowstorm is their birthright and how dare something hit DC and not Boston. When a storm gets suppressed and hits NC or Southern VA I dont feel like the universe has slighted me in some way. as a whole they are terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not that bummed about not chasing...we got an equal or better storm 3 years ago....we'd be stuck in someone's house or hotel without much freedom to drive around once they shut down roads....i mean, I am bummed....but not that bummed....I'm more bummed i didnt do the sandy chaseI probably would have tried harder any other weekend. I was torn that they'd get slammed for a bit, but if they get 2'+ it would be pretty cool. Nothing quite like a city getting demolished by snow. But yeah.. WV would have been sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm going 50/50 odds that I see a single flake. I'll stay up for it and take a picture of the lone lost mangled glob if it shows up on my grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I probably would have tried harder any other weekend. I was torn that they'd get slammed for a bit, but if they get 2'+ it would be pretty cool. Nothing quite like a city getting demolished by snow. But yeah.. WV would have been sick. depending on work and what happens here I may chase in March out in elevation....especially if there is an inland runner...more fun than standing in a hotel parking lot..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 depending on work and what happens here I may chase in March out in elevation....especially if there is an inland runner...more fun than standing in a hotel parking lot.....true. tho with a pack of ppl prob could have gotten a hotel room somewhere in the heart where you can wander a lot. eh, whatever. we have seen big snow recently enough it's not a disaster. sounds like a lot of folks going up there tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Although I've thought about it, I've never gone chasing any winter/weather event If it was going to snow in Frederick or somewhere close like that, it was a weekend and I had nothing else planned, maybe but considering it's temporary (in that it's going to be all gone come spring) I don't see the purpose considering what we had in 09/10 and nothing will beat 45" imby over 4 days in 2/10 it'll snow here again, until then, I wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 true. tho with a pack of ppl prob could have gotten a hotel room somewhere in the heart where you can wander a lot. eh, whatever. we have seen big snow recently enough it's not a disaster. sounds like a lot of folks going up there tho. im tempted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't know if it matters as far as any flakes go, but it seems, at least for the moment, that the southern area is winning the shoving contest. That northern batch doesn't seem to be making much progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't understand the NWS. Why is there a WWA for a mixed event with temps in the mid-30s, yet they didn't issue any out here during 'clipperfest'? I had an inch out here on Sunday with temps well below freezing - as such the roads were well-covered - yet no advisory. I don't recall one issued on Jan 25th either (another, even colder, 1" clipper). Not understanding the 'threat' that this measely event would cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im tempted I'd go if Melissa wouldn't strangle me. I tried to trick her into going for the weekend but she already knew it was supposed to snow. Those HPC probs mixed with guidance seem to point to a top 5 if not all time even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd go if Melissa wouldn't strangle me. I tried to trick her into going for the weekend but she already knew it was supposed to snow. Those HPC probs mixed with guidance seem to point to a top 5 if not all time even. I'd like to see the GFS though the Euro has crushed the other guidance so far.....I'm mostly just making excuses....part of me just doesnt want to chase snow in a heavily populated area of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I chased the Vday 2007 storm in northern PA, and a few others... I really thought about this one but just too many things going on right now. I am more free the next 3 weekend so I really hope another opportunity comes up. For me it is about a combination of snowfall rates and total accumulation. 12" can be worth it if it all falls in 6 hours. Not too thrilled with the WV upslope events, yea they get 30" but it takes 72 hours to get there. Its just 3 days of light to moderate snowfall. I like dynamic systems. Hopefully we get something in the mid atlantic area in the next Month. I like the pattern, just need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd like to see the GFS though the Euro has crushed the other guidance so far.....I'm mostly just making excuses....part of me just doesnt want to chase snow in a heavily populated area of 40N I am with you on that...if this was hitting WV or NC or PA I would not let the chance pass me by...something about going to Boston just bugs me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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