Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i'll stop.. but i dont want to go to the new england forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd go if Melissa wouldn't strangle me. I tried to trick her into going for the weekend but she already knew it was supposed to snow. Those HPC probs mixed with guidance seem to point to a top 5 if not all time even. I jokingly mentioned road tripping to my wife just this afternoon and she said sure. I have family in NW Ma but that puts me out of the epic snow. You mind watching my 3 kids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I pretty much agree....I don't need to see impact....the impact on 40N will be nothing even remotely comparable to the impact here in 2010 in a city at 200'....they have too many resources....I just want to experience sick rates and low viz....And I'd rather not do that in Paramus Mall 12/26/2010 in NYC had an equal impact to 2/5-6/2010 in DC... I was in each region for both, so I would know... this looks to be comparable to 12/2010. I offered you guys a slumber party in Harlem! Road closures are irrelevant if you don't drive anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 StormTotalSnowFcst.png i'll stop.. but i dont want to go to the new england forum I hope that busts in such a bad way. A foot of sleet for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everything is going as modeled. The shield to the south is going to slowly march ever so close and then start shifting towards the coast. It's going to look really good for a while until the fantasy slips away and reality sets in. Probably, but there are no guarantees. Even if we did get the high end of possible precip, there's only a chance that it would be frozen though I suspect back here it would be if we were in heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 if you say so....were you in DC proper for 2/5/10?...I kind of doubt 23" falling on top of 6-10" of snowcover had a similar impact as 20" of fairly short duration snow on no snowcover....I got 250% of Manhattan's snow during that period...not saying it wasnt hight impact...but i doubt it I was in McLean for 2/5, had 26-27". NYC had more than 20" in 12/26/2010, it was definitely on-par with 2/5-6 2010 in DC. It was ~24" citywide, but the major difference was drifting--cars were totally buried, so it kind of made up for the lack of existing snowpack. I wouldn't say there was 6-10" on the ground prior to 2/5, either (in DC)... After 12/26, the impacts in NYC were insane. I've never seen the city shut down before, although we have had Sandy since. I remember walking up Columbus and there were no cars... just abandoned taxis in the road, and this was the day after the storm. I live on the 3rd floor & no elevator, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, through 18 the gfs pushed the .1 line right up to dc. I'll let zwyts handle the soundings. surface above / 850 below. 925 probably not there but one can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In my single days, I'd be tempted to go. Only been to Boston once. But now that I'm married, and married to a southern belle who loves warm weather more than anything, snow-chasing for me has become only a dream. What's funny is she's open to a vacation home in the mountains. lol I guess I could convince her to spend a romantic snow-filled weekend up there if we bought one. Good luck with that marriage.. regret sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was in McLean for 2/5, had 26-27". I thought it was 52"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, through 18 the gfs pushed the .1 line right up to dc. I'll let zwyts handle the soundings. surface above / 850 below. 925 probably not there but one can hope. I don't think you're out yet. This could still surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, through 18 the gfs pushed the .1 line right up to dc. I'll let zwyts handle the soundings. surface above / 850 below. 925 probably not there but one can hope. Its 0.25 QPF through 21hrs... but I gather by 13-15z we are already torching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 now is any of this snow....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I thought it was 52"? ha I saw almost 100" that winter and four storms of 10"+, three of 20"+... having fam in DC and living in NYC paid off big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 now is any of this snow....? 18zgfsqpf.JPG only out thru 9.. sorta close but precip hasnt started yet or is just starting http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=725&sounding.y=305&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=18&fhour=09¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I arrived in NYC just 24 hours after that storm for New Years week that winter, and the impacts were minor by then. Some bus routes were still diverted but that was about it. I thought it was amazing how little 2 feet of snow seemed to affect the NYC metro. I was mostly doing touristy things so perhaps that changed the perspective but only 24 hours after a 2 foot snow in DC proper things are usually still a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP same trend with precip. 20z is wettest run yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how long is 40N going to keep punting the GFS? Until it verifies of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP same trend with precip. 20z is wettest run yet: 20zrapqpf.JPG Guess ill take the qpf and take my chances, rap juicing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. For all south of 40N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how long is 40N going to keep punting the GFS? That's gotta be nerve wrecking. GFS is still a good storm, but not Euro like. I'd tend to have confidence in the Euro/NAM solution in this time frame. Check your texts! 5:15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For all south of 40N? I dunno click the link and change the location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. Down from 850s warm up too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still too warm. Maybe some big col drops. I clicked around on the rap soundings. Problematic too. Close but not really. Better be basketball sized flakes to survive the fall in frozen form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how long is 40N going to keep punting the GFS? until the euro abandons them its basically euro/nam/sref giving them epic totals UKMET/GGEM/GFS all imply a more modest 10-18" type event. I would tend to lean towards the euro/sref blend at this point but I sure would be nervous with the GFS in that other camp right now given the progressive nature of this winter and the need for the capture to happen on time or else... GFS evolution is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I arrived in NYC just 24 hours after that storm for New Years week that winter, and the impacts were minor by then. Some bus routes were still diverted but that was about it. I thought it was amazing how little 2 feet of snow seemed to affect the NYC metro. I was mostly doing touristy things so perhaps that changed the perspective but only 24 hours after a 2 foot snow in DC proper things are usually still a mess. Midtown has a climate more like Atlanta or Norfolk... it's just such an enormous heat sink that snow has no staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. Can you ever be that confident with near record totals? Subtle shifts in track and strength wreaks havoc on totals. I didn't fully buy any of the storms in 09-10. Especially the last one. Looking at the runs it looks like ne is relying on intensity vs slower speed. All our big ones either move slow or pivot overhead. This one never stops moving at a fair clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for all those that need something put all your prayers and hope in the CRAS it was right once..........LOL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_030m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_036m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When were those of you in downtown DC confident you would hit 20" on 2/5-6/10? 24-hour lead-time? 12-hours? When you had 6" on the ground? The mets in the NE subforum are still trying to stay measured, but you can tell people would be pretty disappointed if they don't go over 2 feet. I seem to recall at least 24 hours before, it was pretty clear that an area-wide 20+ inches was quite likely. Maybe even before that, but it probably seemed crazy to call for 20" more than a day out. I know that the morning of Feb. 5, NWS Sterling was basically going for 20-30" generally across the metro DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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