ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM is 50 miles from giving me 2" of liquid Don't get sucked it you know it's the NAM and it is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't get sucked it you know it's the NAM and it is a terrible model. sucked in by what?...driving rain...1-2" snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 shoveling was awful...can't believe I had to shovel the driveway...10"+ IMBY and we were out shopping by early afternoon and the snow was rapidly melting I was in 11th grade then .... we got 14" at my house in Warren County. While schools were closed that next day (Mon), the snow melted so rapidly that day that schools were open that next day (Tues). Unheard of around here for such a large storm. That Sunday evening before the storm I was playing b-ball outside at the park... that's how warm it was that day. Remember being shocked when one of my friends told me about the WSW that night. That was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen (figurativley and literally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 sucked in by what?...driving rain...1-2" snow.... Yea when the run started i thought maybe it would show more frozen but it looks like it will end up warmer than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yea when the run started i thought maybe it would show more frozen but it looks like it will end up warmer than 12Z. Nam has been running really warm, it closes the s/s wave down there far south. Stupid primary, but still its more interesting just because of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't get sucked it you know it's the NAM and it is a terrible model.puts it in pretty good line with the euro tho.. which might mean it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree watching it come west hurts even worse. Just kill this awful winter. We are better at severe than SNE and our summer will crush theres. The NAM is always wrong though. No reason to put much faith in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 puts it in pretty good line with the euro tho.. which might mean it's right Doesn't help us though so i really could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 radar looks good... damn rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yea when the run started i thought maybe it would show more frozen but it looks like it will end up warmer than 12Z. Comparing plots for 18z Friday and 0z Saturday, the 18z Nam is actually colder than 12z by a bit at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 309 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013 MDZ003>007-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-080415- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0010.130208T0900Z-130208T1500Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 309 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S. * WINDS...EAST 5 MPH OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 torchfest in that band http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013020718_F21_38.0000N_77.0000W.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Comparing plots for 18z Friday and 0z Saturday, the 18z Nam is actually colder than 12z by a bit at the surface. Really i figured the way it hugged the coast it had to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Illegal post apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DC burbs are tainting This is some pretty good analysis from the sne forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/535764_484439178270012_1410061206_n.png Credit DT. lol looks like south west of us gets 3 inches. We get essentially nothing (Immidiate DC Metro) then Blows up to our NE. Watch west central VA cash in now.. Boundary layer will be too warm east of the BR. Maybe the valley can grab an inch out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 smart play for people to put their FB page address on illegal uploads of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I credited DT? Still not allowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 snow.jpg Don't see a map like this to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NWS wintery discussions are inching closer to DC. At least for my area in Mont Co. I will key in on temp and Dp at 8pm. IF we are 35/25 I will remain positive and that is likely a 32/33 surface during precip. If it's -2 at 850 some cold temps are going to be dragged down, 34/35* 500-1,000 feet off the ground is not going to melt a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this is why the NAM looks better qpf wise for us this run I don't know if it's a fluke or a trend not much time left to trend if it is one, however anyway, it closes the 5H Low off the coast at 24 hrs, but then opens it up again at 27 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2" for the storm.. gets 50% to NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 puts it in pretty good line with the euro tho.. which might mean it's right The EURO has not wavered in the last 4-5 days with this one. Everyone else has been playing catch up. All we need now is the "Festivus miracle". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NWS wintery discussions are inching closer to DC. At least for my area in Mont Co. I will key in on temp and Dp at 8pm. IF we are 35/25 I will remain positive and that is likely a 32/33 surface during precip. If it's -2 at 850 some cold temps are going to be dragged down, 34/35* 500-1,000 feet off the ground is not going to melt a lot of snow. Well, I'm at least 8 miles N of you and my current temp is 37.3. I've been paying attention to the stupid thermo all day. This hobby is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ian, I'm on my phone so I can't check but isn't there a >4" product for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, I'm at least 8 miles N of you and my current temp is 37.3. I've been paying attention to the stupid thermo all day. This hobby is ridiculous. My closest station show's 34.9/20 DP so maybe i have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My closest station show's 34.9 so maybe i have a chance. Yeah a bit chilly by TU, doubt it does much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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