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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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the SREF really pulled the rug out for northern MD for wraparound...of course that was a long shot.  It almost always ends up well north of where the models put it from a few days out.  The precip only decreased slightly but thats because it had a modest uptick in front end light precip that will be non accumulating muck at best.  Oh well. 

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we need a break in the overcast early in the evening to get rid of some of this captured daytime heating

that's our only slim chance, all other things remaining equal

 

There's some dp spread. I'm still in the upper 20's. But I also think it's going to be tough to get to freezing. It's possible I guess. 

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I know precip seems to be increasing, but my gut says our chances of seeing any real accumulating snow (like 1-3" in the Baltimore north area of MD) have gone down.  Ironically as our precip from the developing southern system increase our chances of getting any meaningful precip up here from the wraparound dies.  We were better off when the coastal developed a bit more east, and allowed the northern branch system to dive in and perhaps we could get some bands of wraparound.  As we bring the coastal further west and stronger it actually is forcing the northern system further north, and thus we get more precip in the DC area of the wet variety, but the wraparound ends up forced further north also.  I don't see that trend reversing itself so at this point our only hope left is maybe to get the coastal to really blow up faster then forecast and get a fast front end thump snow.  Even that is highly unlikely as the thermal profile in the DC area doesn't support it, and up here we are going to miss the coastal precip and now also the wraparound.  I was only holding out hope for maybe an inch or two up here but I think its about time to punt on that even. 

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I know precip seems to be increasing, but my gut says our chances of seeing any real accumulating snow (like 1-3" in the Baltimore north area of MD) have gone down.  Ironically as our precip from the developing southern system increase our chances of getting any meaningful precip up here from the wraparound dies.  We were better off when the coastal developed a bit more east, and allowed the northern branch system to dive in and perhaps we could get some bands of wraparound.  As we bring the coastal further west and stronger it actually is forcing the northern system further north, and thus we get more precip in the DC area of the wet variety, but the wraparound ends up forced further north also.  I don't see that trend reversing itself so at this point our only hope left is maybe to get the coastal to really blow up faster then forecast and get a fast front end thump snow.  Even that is highly unlikely as the thermal profile in the DC area doesn't support it, and up here we are going to miss the coastal precip and now also the wraparound.  I was only holding out hope for maybe an inch or two up here but I think its about time to punt on that even. 

this and what has happened so far this "winter" have me seriously doubting anything will change in the next 21 days....after that, fugetaboutit

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I don't waste my time with the regional crap but I will say they do not handle it well at all when a major storm hits south of them.  I do not understand their attitude from some up in New England that every snowstorm is their birthright and how dare something hit DC and not Boston.  When a storm gets suppressed and hits NC or Southern VA I dont feel like the universe has slighted me in some way. 

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I'm not that bummed about not chasing...we got an equal or better storm 3 years ago....we'd be stuck in someone's house or hotel without much freedom to drive around once they shut down roads....i mean, I am bummed....but not that bummed....I'm more bummed i didnt do the sandy chase

I probably would have tried harder any other weekend. I was torn that they'd get slammed for a bit, but if they get 2'+ it would be pretty cool. Nothing quite like a city getting demolished by snow. But yeah.. WV would have been sick.
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depending on work and what happens here I may chase in March out in elevation....especially if there is an inland runner...more fun than standing in a hotel parking lot.....

true. tho with a pack of ppl prob could have gotten a hotel room somewhere in the heart where you can wander a lot. eh, whatever. we have seen big snow recently enough it's not a disaster. :P sounds like a lot of folks going up there tho.
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Although I've thought about it, I've never gone chasing any winter/weather event

If it was going to snow in Frederick or somewhere close like that, it was a weekend and I had nothing else planned, maybe

but considering it's temporary (in that it's going to be all gone come spring) I don't see the purpose considering what we had in 09/10 and nothing will beat 45" imby over 4 days in 2/10

it'll snow here again, until then, I wait

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I don't understand the NWS.  Why is there a WWA for a mixed event with temps in the mid-30s, yet they didn't issue any out here during 'clipperfest'?  I had an inch out here on Sunday with temps well below freezing - as such the roads were well-covered - yet no advisory.  I don't recall one issued on Jan 25th either (another, even colder, 1" clipper).  Not understanding the 'threat' that this measely event would cause.

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im tempted

I'd go if Melissa wouldn't strangle me. I tried to trick her into going for the weekend but she already knew it was supposed to snow. Those HPC probs mixed with guidance seem to point to a top 5 if not all time even.

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I chased the Vday 2007 storm in northern PA, and a few others... I really thought about this one but just too many things going on right now.  I am more free the next 3 weekend so I really hope another opportunity comes up.  For me it is about a combination of snowfall rates and total accumulation.  12" can be worth it if it all falls in 6 hours.  Not too thrilled with the WV upslope events, yea they get 30" but it takes 72 hours to get there.  Its just 3 days of light to moderate snowfall.  I like dynamic systems.  Hopefully we get something in the mid atlantic area in the next Month.  I like the pattern, just need some luck. 

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I'd like to see the GFS though the Euro has crushed the other guidance so far.....I'm mostly just making excuses....part of me just doesnt want to chase snow in a heavily populated area of 40N

I am with you on that...if this was hitting WV or NC or PA I would not let the chance pass me by...something about going to Boston just bugs me. 

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I don't understand the NWS.  Why is there a WWA for a mixed event with temps in the mid-30s, yet they didn't issue any out here during 'clipperfest'?  I had an inch out here on Sunday with temps well below freezing - as such the roads were well-covered - yet no advisory.  I don't recall one issued on Jan 25th either (another, even colder, 1" clipper).  Not understanding the 'threat' that this measely event would cause.

My guess would be higher precip amounts with this one as opposed to those moisture starved clippers

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im tempted

 

In my single days, I'd be tempted to go. Only been to Boston once. But now that I'm married, and married to a southern belle who loves warm weather more than anything, snow-chasing for me has become only a dream. What's funny is she's open to a vacation home in the mountains. lol  I guess I could convince her to spend a romantic snow-filled weekend up there if we bought one.

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I don't understand the NWS. Why is there a WWA for a mixed event with temps in the mid-30s, yet they didn't issue any out here during 'clipperfest'? I had an inch out here on Sunday with temps well below freezing - as such the roads were well-covered - yet no advisory. I don't recall one issued on Jan 25th either (another, even colder, 1" clipper). Not understanding the 'threat' that this measely event would cause.

I mean they kind of have to with the 1% chance this thing has of phasing early and hitting us with a bit. It ain't gonna happen but since there's the slightest of chances they're just covering their butts I guess.

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I don't know if it matters as far as any flakes go, but it seems, at least for the moment, that the southern area is winning the shoving contest.  That northern batch doesn't seem to be making much progress.

 

Everything is going as modeled. The shield to the south is going to slowly march ever so close and then start shifting towards the coast. It's going to look really good for a while until the fantasy slips away and reality sets in. 

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I'd like to see the GFS though the Euro has crushed the other guidance so far.....I'm mostly just making excuses....part of me just doesnt want to chase snow in a heavily populated area of 40N

yeah.. im not sure i'd actually go or just saying so since i cant. new sref mean is 30" there tho. heh. i'd be more inclined to get to a blizzard on the cape.. her parents have a good place to stay, but that's a pain to get to and the cape seems to have accum problems on this one.
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