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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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I like it to be freezing at 950mb, but that's not a hard and fast rule.  Honestly, I don't know if we could be snowing from that sounding.  Maybe.  Where's Wes?

Is that sounding for DCA? Yeah, 950 is better.  925 is pretty touchy...possible with good rates.  What's nice about that sounding (if it's believable), is that the warm nose at 950 is gone, just warms slowly from 925 to the surface.  So, we're closer, but not there.  

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I'm deleting a lot of posts because people don't remember what storm mode is.  Admins can handle themselves.  

there's only like 15 ppl in this thread compared to 300 in new england.. probably not a huge deal to let some color commentary flow
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hr 18 of 16z rap. 850's sub freezin, 925's breezin, surface cheezin. I'm huggin

 

attachicon.gif16zrapper.JPG

The storm down over the southeast looks great on radar, and for a while tonight its going to be coming right at us...but then at the most critical juncture it will start to feel the influence of the northern stream right at our lattitude.  That is what makes it suddenly shift east, then the phase and capture happens and it pulls it due north from there.  There are two ways to get heavy precip into our area, at least DC north and east...one does us no good for snowfall.  The first way is if the northern stream does not exert much influence until a bit further north and the heavy precip just bowls into us from the south...that though would probably be more wet then white because we have stale cold air and without the northern stream we also have no ability to get cold air in here to offset the WAA.  The second way is if the "mirracle" happens and the whole thing phases and gets captured about 6 hours faster then forecasted by the GFS and maybe 3 hours faster then the euro.  Then the precip would back into us from the east and fill in from the west and we might catch the back edge of the deform band as it forms right over us.  This is our only shot, even as a miracle.  Its fun to dream. 

 

I have to pick my gf up in pine grove PA tomorrow evening around 5pm... thinking maybe I will just drive a little east from there into the Poconos to at least see some decent snow.  WIth upslope they might get a foot in that area. 

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didnt it snow in the 80;s with temps 36-37. We got a foot of wet snow but im sure they dynamics were outrageous.

yea Feb 1987 northern VA got a 12-16" snowstorm with temps in the mid 30's for a majority of the storm, but as you said it has crazy rates and dynamics and it was a rare event, not exaclty something I would predict ahead of time or count on. 

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I think the more important thing is the trend on the rap. Run a few select hours through the last 5-6 runs. It's getting cooler each time. Much has to do with the southern low of course. I wasn't upset when I saw ne surface winds pulling before real precip arrives. Who knows. 

With the rap trending colder over the last few runs. Is it safe to assume the coastal is getting stronger also?

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I do not agree that this is stale cold air. It may be marginally cold but this push began last night.  I think we can keep snow down to 30.05-30.1, lower than that probably not.  1038 high does not move mcuh during crunch time, low to the nw still the problem maker, coastal low excellent.

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Is that sounding for DCA? Yeah, 950 is better.  925 is pretty touchy...possible with good rates.  What's nice about that sounding (if it's believable), is that the warm nose at 950 is gone, just warms slowly from 925 to the surface.  So, we're closer, but not there.  

 

The HRRR (yeah, I know) at 06z already has the freezing line at 925mb north of the M/D line.  The streamlines from the northern low really screw us.

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With the rap trending colder over the last few runs. Is it safe to assume the coastal is getting stronger also?

 

Not really sure. I think maybe a little bit along with the lp to the nw being a little further away. It's just slight variation in the interaction I suppose. Don't read into it too much though. I was merely pointing out an observation. Rap @ 18hrs is not the best tool. 

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The storm down over the southeast looks great on radar, and for a while tonight its going to be coming right at us...but then at the most critical juncture it will start to feel the influence of the northern stream right at our lattitude.  That is what makes it suddenly shift east, then the phase and capture happens and it pulls it due north from there.  There are two ways to get heavy precip into our area, at least DC north and east...one does us no good for snowfall.  The first way is if the northern stream does not exert much influence until a bit further north and the heavy precip just bowls into us from the south...that though would probably be more wet then white because we have stale cold air and without the northern stream we also have no ability to get cold air in here to offset the WAA.  The second way is if the "mirracle" happens and the whole thing phases and gets captured about 6 hours faster then forecasted by the GFS and maybe 3 hours faster then the euro.  Then the precip would back into us from the east and fill in from the west and we might catch the back edge of the deform band as it forms right over us.  This is our only shot, even as a miracle.  Its fun to dream. 

 

I have to pick my gf up in pine grove PA tomorrow evening around 5pm... thinking maybe I will just drive a little east from there into the Poconos to at least see some decent snow.  WIth upslope they might get a foot in that area. 

won't the coastal create it's own cold air at some point?

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For snow peeps the scenario of synoptic features pointing to an increased chance of frozen precip (albeit low amounts) seems more compelling than a blizzard watch fading away entirely within 24 hours.

 

If anything materializes Friday for DC/Balt and surrounding areas it should be seen as gravy within this multi-year dearth of measurable snow.

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yea Feb 1987 northern VA got a 12-16" snowstorm with temps in the mid 30's for a majority of the storm, but as you said it has crazy rates and dynamics and it was a rare event, not exaclty something I would predict ahead of time or count on. 

High temperatures reached well into the 40's, close to 50 in some areas that day before the snow started. Snow started falling in the evening with temps in the mid to upper 30's then fell to 32-33 at the height of the storm and stayed there. It was definitely the dynamics with that storm. I think some areas got thunder and lightning.

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High temperatures reached well into the 40's, close to 50 in some areas that day before the snow started. Snow started falling in the evening with temps in the mid to upper 30's then fell to 32-33 at the height of the storm and stayed there. It was definitely the dynamics with that storm. I think some areas got thunder and lightning.

shoveling was awful...can't believe I had to shovel the driveway...10"+ IMBY and we were out shopping by early afternoon and the snow was rapidly melting

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shoveling was awful...can't believe I had to shovel the driveway...10"+ IMBY and we were out shopping by early afternoon and the snow was rapidly melting

I was 14 at the time so at least it was a day off of school. Picked 12 inches living in Owings Mills at the time. I don't think we had anymore accumulating snow the rest of that season unless there was something small I forgot about.

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won't the coastal create it's own cold air at some point?

I suppose if we got the CCB to track due north and blow up over us with crazy dynamics its possible but usually in this situation with only marginal cold air and a low to the north cutting us off from the true cold air, temps wont crash until the phasing happens and that is just too late for us.  Your scenario is possible but even less likely then the other.  Either way we are talking about a hail mary pass at this point. 

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