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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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even the 850s arent good for DC and SE. we do get a lot more precip but still a sharp cutoff across the area.. living on the edge is always an issue.

 

we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible?

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RAP @ hr 6-7 shows precip approaching. 850's and 925's are fine. Surface is 35ish in dc N. 

 

It's a close call for front end. Winds at all levels aren't very favorable but still. Precip appears to be moving in faster but I haven't paid as close attention as others. Front end flakes? Maybe? 

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we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible?

im going to assume the euro is too wet for now either way.
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RAP @ hr 6-7 shows precip approaching. 850's and 925's are fine. Surface is 35ish in dc N. 

 

It's a close call for front end. Winds at all levels aren't very favorable but still. Precip appears to be moving in faster but I haven't paid as close attention as others. Front end flakes? Maybe? 

link for rap you are using please

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we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible?

didnt it snow in the 80;s with temps 36-37. We got a foot of wet snow but im sure they dynamics were outrageous.

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Probably not very significant but the rap has edged the heavier shield closer to dca and the burbs through the last handful of runs. Temps are fine during the period. Good 850's and close enough @ 925. Surface freezing line near mason dixon. 

 

If the southern low end up being a bit stronger then I suppose something up front is possible. (not likely but worth watching). 

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we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible?

There will be some evaporational but probably not the normal 1/3 caluculation; more like 1/5.  Many of my contentions over last several days are still in play.

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Rap has trended colder at all the important levels during the last 5 hours. I shouldn't be chasing the dream of some kind of snow but I can't help myself. Snow measured in yards within a days drive probably has something to do with it. 

What are the temps from 850 to surface when it's precip-ing?

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Rap has trended colder at all the important levels during the last 5 hours. I shouldn't be chasing the dream of some kind of snow but I can't help myself. Snow measured in yards within a days drive probably has something to do with it. 

Everyone is bitter but I bet by 00Z tonight folks will be talking about 2-5 across the area.

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What are the temps from 850 to surface when it's precip-ing?

 

It's getting interesting.....

 

Here's the sim @ hr 18 w/ 17z run. 

 

 

 

850's are fine. Like -2 or so. 925's are freezing in a line from fredrick-manchester. But the +2.5 925 line is way south. Like St. Mary's country south.

 

Surface winds are pulling NE by this time. 

 

Am I really doing this? 

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So temps are above freezing (for most of us) from 925 to surface?  1-2C above?

 

RAP was money on our last clipper, so it's good we're giving it so much weight now... :whistle:

 

lol- I said it was trending colder...

 

My job is to find this crap. It's you tag fella's job to put the beat down on it. 

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LOL at whoever is deleting posts.

 

I guess what you post is less relevant that who you are.

 

What I tried to say is that with the latest trends it appears that many gave up too early, and that it may end up being a decent event.

Radar looks good too, but the RAP ends up shifting that east a bit.

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LOL at whoever is deleting posts.

 

I guess what you post is less relevant that who you are.

 

What I tried to say is that with the latest trends it appears that many gave up too early, and that it may end up being a decent event.

Radar looks good too, but the RAP ends up shifting that east a bit.

I'm deleting a lot of posts because people don't remember what storm mode is.  Admins can handle themselves.  

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Is that definitely a rain sounding if we are getting moderate precip?

 

I think the more important thing is the trend on the rap. Run a few select hours through the last 5-6 runs. It's getting cooler each time. Much has to do with the southern low of course. I wasn't upset when I saw ne surface winds pulling before real precip arrives. Who knows. 

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