Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 even the 850s arent good for DC and SE. we do get a lot more precip but still a sharp cutoff across the area.. living on the edge is always an issue. we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP @ hr 6-7 shows precip approaching. 850's and 925's are fine. Surface is 35ish in dc N. It's a close call for front end. Winds at all levels aren't very favorable but still. Precip appears to be moving in faster but I haven't paid as close attention as others. Front end flakes? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible?im going to assume the euro is too wet for now either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP @ hr 6-7 shows precip approaching. 850's and 925's are fine. Surface is 35ish in dc N. It's a close call for front end. Winds at all levels aren't very favorable but still. Precip appears to be moving in faster but I haven't paid as close attention as others. Front end flakes? Maybe? link for rap you are using please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible? didnt it snow in the 80;s with temps 36-37. We got a foot of wet snow but im sure they dynamics were outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 just a quick and dirty glance, euro looks like 0.8" for DCA euro has increased precip the past 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im going to assume the euro is too wet for now either way. probably.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 link for rap you are using please http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=17&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 probably..nam and gfs are pretty close to eachother over us qpf'wise... euro has a tendency to have some weird precip hiccups late, especially if you have a hard western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 im going to assume the euro is too wet for now either way. At this point, the Euro is likely close to reality....quite a kick in the #uts getting decent precip , but having marginal temps. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Probably not very significant but the rap has edged the heavier shield closer to dca and the burbs through the last handful of runs. Temps are fine during the period. Good 850's and close enough @ 925. Surface freezing line near mason dixon. If the southern low end up being a bit stronger then I suppose something up front is possible. (not likely but worth watching). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we do have 2 problems...but I dont think 850 temps are one of them...at least according to the euro...we are below when precip starts at 11pm tonight and dont go above until mid morning tomorrow....evaporational cooling possible? There will be some evaporational but probably not the normal 1/3 caluculation; more like 1/5. Many of my contentions over last several days are still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think this will actually end up getting NE MD into some decent snow. Seems to be headed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think this will actually end up getting NE MD into some decent snow. Seems to be headed that way. Though I don't agree and have an obligation to as I punted, 1-2 could get you. Are you speaking of the backlash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even though this is the wettest run for all of us in awhile, it keeps the "backlash" (which isn't exactly backlash in this case because of the merging of the Lakes low) generally out of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rap has trended colder at all the important levels during the last 5 hours. I shouldn't be chasing the dream of some kind of snow but I can't help myself. Snow measured in yards within a days drive probably has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rap has trended colder at all the important levels during the last 5 hours. I shouldn't be chasing the dream of some kind of snow but I can't help myself. Snow measured in yards within a days drive probably has something to do with it. What are the temps from 850 to surface when it's precip-ing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rap has trended colder at all the important levels during the last 5 hours. I shouldn't be chasing the dream of some kind of snow but I can't help myself. Snow measured in yards within a days drive probably has something to do with it. Everyone is bitter but I bet by 00Z tonight folks will be talking about 2-5 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What are the temps from 850 to surface when it's precip-ing? It's getting interesting..... Here's the sim @ hr 18 w/ 17z run. 850's are fine. Like -2 or so. 925's are freezing in a line from fredrick-manchester. But the +2.5 925 line is way south. Like St. Mary's country south. Surface winds are pulling NE by this time. Am I really doing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everyone is bitter but I bet by 00Z tonight folks will be talking about 2-5 across the area.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I blew up the 925's. Freezing is closer than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So temps are above freezing (for most of us) from 925 to surface? 1-2C above? RAP was money on our last clipper, so it's good we're giving it so much weight now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So temps are above freezing (for most of us) from 925 to surface? 1-2C above? RAP was money on our last clipper, so it's good we're giving it so much weight now... lol- I said it was trending colder... My job is to find this crap. It's you tag fella's job to put the beat down on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL at whoever is deleting posts. I guess what you post is less relevant that who you are. What I tried to say is that with the latest trends it appears that many gave up too early, and that it may end up being a decent event. Radar looks good too, but the RAP ends up shifting that east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP sounding, 17z at 17 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP sounding, 17z at 17 hrs RAP_255_2013020717_F17_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Well saturated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RAP sounding, 17z at 17 hrs RAP_255_2013020717_F17_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Is that definitely a rain sounding if we are getting moderate precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT says Euro shows 2 inches of snow down to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL at whoever is deleting posts. I guess what you post is less relevant that who you are. What I tried to say is that with the latest trends it appears that many gave up too early, and that it may end up being a decent event. Radar looks good too, but the RAP ends up shifting that east a bit. I'm deleting a lot of posts because people don't remember what storm mode is. Admins can handle themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that definitely a rain sounding if we are getting moderate precip? I think the more important thing is the trend on the rap. Run a few select hours through the last 5-6 runs. It's getting cooler each time. Much has to do with the southern low of course. I wasn't upset when I saw ne surface winds pulling before real precip arrives. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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